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Monday, March 07, 2011

Update
Market sell-off at hand?

The "six day" is in.

With one day of data to come sometime tomorrow night, there's enough here to say that we're definitely going to take a hit here Thursday, all at the past weeks peril in North Africa and the Middle East.

Here's what I have so far:
  • Heating and stove oils show 2.88 cents a litre up.
  • Diesel shows 3.4 cents a litre up, and...
  • Gasoline now shows 3.5 cents a litre up.
Today's trading was "different". A quick look at the numbers was the normal for the end of today, but it was at the same time "weird", to say the least. It was very hard to describe what I felt looking at those numbers, but let me try to describe what I felt.

The TSX was down somewhat, while oil prices were up. And with oil up, the Canadian dollar still slipped a little, and that was a noticeable slip under that guise, at least for me. The tendency is for the dollar to rise hand in hand with rising oil prices, but not today.

You could smell some trouble in the TSX being down. It's like someone was suddenly paying attention to all the "hype" over rising prices, and starting a revolt of their own, all at the traders expense. To me, just a small warning, or a shot across the bow of whoever is ignoring the possible recession message in higher oil prices.

All you could hear this past weekend was talk about holding on to what one had, and the supposed end of any economic recovery, if there was one to begin with.

Did the markets get the message about the crap investors are getting on with over Libya and Saudi Arabia and the possibility of $200 US a barrel oil??

I don't know. I just get the feeling though, that people are getting a little tired of getting screwed by the markets, let alone at the pumps, and not having the power to do anything about it. With that sentiment also comes the feeling that $200 US a barrel is just not in the cards for anyone no matter what happens in the Middle East. Maybe today's trading session was a warning that even oil prices are tenuous, and could drop out any second.

The rest of the week is going to be very interesting to watch indeed!

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.

Regards,

George

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