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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Numbers are down
No price changes this week, however...
While there is something happening in the oil markets besides the threat from swine flu, there is a tense atmosphere that is persiting.
It hasn't reared it's ugly head to traders, as of yet, but it will soon.
What should be happening is a steady drop back in fuel prices along with crude oil, almost to the point where we should be slightly below $30.00 US a barrel, given the contravening evidence.
Markets are witnessing further economic damage, numbers for unemployment keep creeping upwards and inventories of crude oil and it's related, refined commodities are climbing while, the latest figures from the EIA show a slight drop in demand for gasoline and other fuels.
Distillates are bringing the bad news. Heating and stove oil demand is dropping off with the onset of warmer weather and other distillates like diesel and jet fuels, show massive drops in demand numbers, with jet fuel demand down by over nine per cent from last years numbers.
As for gasoline?
Demand numbers now show something that they haven't shown in several weeks. Demand there is also down, even though it may be a paltry .4 per cent against last years numbers for the same time period. It is a foreboding of what is to come, if traders don't notice it soon, they probably will with the next inventory data figures coming out tomorrow; that consumers are hurting out here and the swine flu will only add to the traders misery.
No one is going to travel until this crisis, in a spreading disease that has gone world-wide now, is overwith.
There's a steady trend down, especially with distillates, until the various health agencies world-wide get a grip on this one and, traders using your money and mine, just can't see it yet.
Plane tickets anyone?
In the meantime, here's what I have so far this regulation period:
  • Stove oil and heating oils down by 1.94 a litre.
  • Diesel down by 2.1 a litre, and...
  • Gasoline down by 1.6 or 1.7 cents a litre.

Let's see what happens for the next week, shall we?

Regards,

George

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