European banks step in

Relief from the debt crisis for now?

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 12, 2011- Consumers will again experience an upwards price adjustment to all fuels this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The European union banks have stepped in to buy up some of the debt from some of the EU’s member countries and that has led to some relief in the financial system of some troubled Euro union countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy. Oil increased this week as a result of a more optimistic economic mood, only set off earlier in the session with a less than stellar US jobs report,” said Murphy.

“Numbers show an increase to heating and stove oils of 3.28 cents a litre with diesel rising by 4.4 cents a litre. Gasoline numbers show an increase as well by 3.6 cents a litre. There’s still a lot of volatility in the markets as there are factors preventing any meteoric rise in prices. The relief of some of the Euro member’s debts by the European Union banks may be just a temporary measure until the troubled countries get a handle on how to best resolve their various debt problems.

“About to enter the picture in the next month or so are debt problems from none other than the United States which lies some $14 trillion in the hole. With a less than spectacular jobs report added to the possibility of Obama having to introduce his own austerity measures to handle the US debt-load, we could have a scenario for future drops in oil prices as consumers adjust to higher taxation that will affect consumer spending. The possibility is there that the Chinese government already recognizes the signs of a slowdown and they are trying to increase interest rates to stymie an ever-increasing rate of inflation. Manufacturing there is slowing as a result.

“I don’t see a steady increase in fuel prices in the immediate future. We’re mere weeks away from the first Atlantic hurricane as an excuse for investors, and we’re almost through the half-way point of the summer driving season. It looks like the projection of gasoline below $1.40 a litre for the summer is holding for now. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for the remainder of the season!”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Trouble in the markets?
Numbers up again, but for how long?

Seems that the gains that oil prices made over the last couple of days has been pared by the realities seeping into the markets.

What we saw go up, and with consumer prices going up this week, may be coming down soon.

All the data now coming in shows that oil prices could be facing their biggest challenge to stay up in price yet. A drop in crude oil imports through China along with a weaker than expected jobs report may soon play into the markets as demand for crude oil may be slipping.

While oil prices for West Texas Intermediate rose on average from last week by close on $4 US a barrel, oil has begun a slide that, for some, hopefully will continue into the next session and into refined commodities.

Just not this week...

Here's what I have for this regulatory session so far, keeping in mind that I only have five days of data on gasoline prices. The rest of the numbers cover six days of market trading:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 3.6 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an increase of 4.2 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3.4 cents a litre.

Oh well...

This change will put us halfway through July with the price still below the $1.40 a litre the numbers showed as the average for the summer for the St. John's area from myself, and well below the $1.50 a litre expected by all the other analysts and speculators out there.

Remember that word "volatility" is still a factor out there...

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers on what to expect for Thursday morning.

Regards,

George

Resource give-aways continue...
Welcome aboard Alberta!

See?

And you thought that the 1985 signing of the Atlantic Accord was bad, and that it was a bad thing for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to be upset over our resources sailing away!

There's a pipeline construction project about to start in Alberta that will see almost 900,000 barrels of crude oil processed in Texas rather than inside Alberta. In context, making our offshore oil production a mere pittance against what Alberta has to export!

It's called the Keystone Project...

Canadians should be going off their heads,but there's hardly a whimper, except from the likes of some unions who are warning about the deal that would ship tons of bitumen to Texas for refining. It's just another classic example of crude oil resources going south of the border to power Uncle Sam's economy, rather than keep our own economy powered with secondary processing jobs.

The sale of this country's resources continues, and as reguards to resource giveaways, we at "gas and oil" would like to welcome aboard Alberta as being partly responsible for adding to Canada's energy shortages in the future!

On that "sour" note, I'll be in touch tomorrow evening on the trend in price changes for this coming Thursday!

Regards,

George

Consumers to take a hit

Hi to all…

Here’s the final numbers and what to expect with all seven days of data now in.

Sad to say, but after last week’s drop, they’ll be increasing again.

· Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.45 cents a litre.

· Diesel shows an added 2.1 cents a litre, and…

· Gasoline shows an added 4.5 cents a litre.

Highlights

European Union money woes

The bailout of Greece continues to weigh in the markets the last week after the Greek government passed austerity measures to pay off debt financing from the European Union. It will be some time before faith is restored enough in the financial markets of Europe to say that the financial crisis is over however. Greece has maturing debt that will probably be called in by other institutions in the next few years that some fear that Greece will eventually have to face a default situation.

In the meantime, investors poured money back into commodities from other currencies like the US dollar, and that resulted in the rise of oil prices and refined commodities.

Saudis to keep production the same

It was thought by some in the markets last week that OPEC’s leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia, would follow western nations in increasing oil production after some western nations decided to release oil from strategic reserves.

“Not so fast” now seems to be the catch phrase in the markets after word got out that the Saudis would instead reign back oil production with the US moving first to increase overall crude oil supply. The Saudis walked into a meeting of OPEC members two weeks ago asking fellow members to increase output to keep oil prices down to $90 US a barrel, but they were met with opposition to any increase in output by Iran and Venezuela.

The move by the west was designed to bring down oil prices in the hope that the timed release of oil would help replace lost Libyan oil production as well as drop the price of oil. Western leaders like President Obama of the United States openly stated that high oil prices were going to hinder any possible economic recovery and the move was an attempt to bring prices down.

Inventories drop

Crude oil and gasoline inventories took a pounding last week with total refinery production picking up to range 88% of operable capacity. The numbers pointed to a pickup in demand and a sign that consumers were buying in spite of the high price again.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

The markets are saying
"Give Greece a chance"

My apologies to the Beatles for that one!

You're all going to hate me this week, I think!

In what must be a remarkable turnaround in the markets this week, the European Union has approved the final installment in funding for Greece's own bailout after the Greek parliament approved austerity programming by a narrow margin.

That, and the fact that Saudi Arabia may not increase production after the United States and other western nations began a timed release of oil from strategic reserves around the world to replace lost Libyan production, has resulted in a rebound for oil prices and prices for oil's refined commodities.

Here's what I have so far, with five days out of a possible seven, in place for this Thursday's price change:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.05 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 2.1 cents so far, and...
• Gasoline is up by 4.4 cents a litre.

Oh well!...

Needless to say, with the markets closed on Monday, I don't expect much change to the numbers for Tuesday trading, which is the last day to track right now.

Look for numbers close to this on Tuesday evening's post.

Regards,

George

Good evening from Stephenville!

Hi to all...

On a bit of a working vacation on this side of the island with still a little time to account for the numbers for everyone.

With all seven days of data now in, here's what you can expect for a change in prices for this Thursday morning:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3.97 cents a litre.


• Diesel shows a drop of 4.3 cents a litre, and...


• Gasoline shows a drop of 3.7 cents a litre.

Sorry about the lack of news in this posting for everyone, but that's tha way it goes for at least this price change!

I'll be back at everyone next week with more news!

Regards,

George

Refined commodities trading down
Another break for consumers for this Thursday on the way

With turmoil in the markets playing a big factor in oil prices, it was but a matter of time before refined commodity prices started to take a precipitous trek downwards. And, so goes the word to consumers this week in Newfoundland and Labrador.

At least, so far...

Here's what I have with five days of data out of seven so far:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 3.98 cents a litre.
• Diesel is down by 4.2 cents, and...
• Gasoline is pointing down by 3.9 cents a litre.

Could be a better than expected Thursday coming for us!

I'll try and keep everyone updated, but look for drops for Thursday as a certainty right now.

Regards,

George

The battle shaping up...

Interesting, to say the least!

In an almost unprecedented move, Asian countries have now joined in what appears to be a global move to bring energy prices downwards to spur economic activity and recovery.

Seems to be a recognition out there from governments that OPEC's long-standing goal of keeping oil prices up is going to be a hard job.

The United States and some European countries rallied together on Thursday to release some of their crude oil reserves to the world markets, not long after OPEC met, to meet a shortfall of global crude stocks and in an effort to bring down the price of oil to bolster economic recovery. OPEC failed to increase production the other day that would have dropped crude oil prices, but the meeting to discuss production increases amongst member countries failed, spurring the move by western countries.

Brent crude shows a drop so far today by close on $1.40 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is down slightly by close on sixty cents. Not a big lot, but it's starting to show on refined commodity prices.

I'll be in touch, but it's off to the west coast of the province Monday.

Regards,

George

Oil takes a pounding

Look for more updates on this one again as oil prices take a pounding in the markets today.

Oil trading lower as a result of bad economic news out of the US with a lower than expected drop in US inventories, lower economic growth forecast and a higher than expected unemployment report all playing heavily in the markets.

WTI trading down, as of 12:00Noon Newfoundland time, by $4.64 US a barrel and Brent trading down by more than six bucks US to $107.46 and below what the Newfoundland and Labrador government's budget forecast of $108 US.

Gasoline is trading down by 14 cents US a gallon and heating oils also are trading down by 16 cents a US gallon as well.

Might be another good week on the consumer end, especially if the "Canuck Buck" stays up!

I'll be in touch on this one as well as it unfolds, so you might want to hold off buying any fuels for a bit.

Regards,

George

Consumers will catch a break

European Union sovereign debt a factor

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 21, 2011- Consumers of petroleum products will catch a break as European Union member countries, particularly Greece, deal with debt problems. That news comes from the group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices, George Murphy.

Reality kicks in for investors

"It's back to reality for investors and speculators as ongoing concerns of any economic recovery married with European Union sovereign debt all reign over the markets. For some investors, the US dollar was the only safe haven when they pulled their finances out of oil in fear of a world slowdown caused by Greek, Italian and Portuguese debt-loads. Of real concern is austerity programs that could wreak havoc with the Greece debt and economic recovery efforts", Murphy said.

"Numbers show the start of what I feel is a 'more to come' scenario. If monetary problems persist and Greece doesn't meet her debt payment schedule, then we may see further drops in prices as investors pull out of oil. Right now, investors are caught in a tenuous catch-22 situation where they have no choice but pull money out of oil with a possible economic collapse in Europe. But, if they pour their money into the US dollar as a safe haven, they could cause a slowdown in US exports with an increase in the US dollar value, making their manufacturing sector face a slowdown."

"Markets are very 'bear' right now"...

Numbers

"My numbers show a drop to all fuels is on the way for Thursday morning. I have heating and stove oils down by 3.56 cents a litre while, diesel shows a downwards movement by 3.7 cents a litre, taking a little bit of relief in the distillate group of fuels."

"Gasoline shows a drop of 2.8 cents, but that number, as well as the distillates, do not account for any market volatility that is out there, and it has been volatile!"

"I'm hoping the news in the numbers will carry through for next week. Numbers are already showing a downwards trend, but its continuation will depend mainly on what happens with the European Union's handling of the money crisis amongst member countries like Greece. If she defaults on the first debt payments, it could be 'force majeure' in the marketplace, and we could see investors run. Numbers are already showing signs of another decrease on the way for next week if Greece continues to play in the markets again. Numbers are already showing an even two cents down for all fuels for next week, but it's still a little early to call it. We'll wait and see what happens."

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Six out of seven days...

A break in consumer prices is coming for residents of Newfoundland and Labrador this Thursday. At least that's what the numbers continue to show.

Here's what I have for six days:

• Heating and stove oils now show a drop of 3.15 cents a litre.
• Diesel is now down by 3.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline is also down by 3.4 cents a litre.

One day left to go before we say we have the final number. I'll be back tomorrow night with that.

Continuing worries over European Union debt-load, particularly from member country Greece, still is playing heavily in the markets. There's a lot of worry amongst investors out there and they're stirring away from the bear markets for now.

Regards,

George

Numbers down

Happy Father's Day!

I promised everyone that I would post a few times before the next price setting to keep everyone up to date on this latest drop in oil prices.

So far, there hasn't been a large of a change as what one would expect. Given that I think that refined prices should have taken a pounding along with oil prices, I would have expected to see something in the order of a seven cent a litre drop in refined commodity prices, based on "Big Oil's theory of one cent per every dollar a barrel in oil prices.

It doesn't show itself in the numbers.

Here's what I do have:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 2.89 cents a litre.
• Diesel is down by 2.7 cents a litre, and ...
• Gasoline shows downwards by an even two cents.

Disappointing...

I don't know why refined commodity prices didn't react in the same manner, but they did stay relatively stable all during this little "crisis" with oil so far. What it appears to be is that refined commodity prices are probably just showing an adjustment from the drop in acquired costs, and not reflective of the reality that there's some economic problems out there.

I think oil is waiting for more substantive news on a downturn in the North American economy more-so than what the markets are telling us about the European Union. That's almost off the mark from just a year and a half ago when oil retreated everywhere when even the North American economy showed signs of tanking along with the European Union's ongoing debt concerns with member countries.

In other words, we might have to wait a little bit longer to see something more substantive when it comes to that break in fuel prices we've all been waiting for.

Stay tuned. That news could be just around the corner...

Regards,

George

Oil markets in trouble

Today's sell-off in oil won't do this weeks price change any good, but watch out next week, if the trend continues.

Seems that today, the called slow-down of the US economy and the European Union debt crisis is starting to kick in, as predicted some time ago that it would, and that has sent the oil markets reeling with oil down by $4 US and gasoline down by 16 cents a US Gallon.

Now, if the Canadian dollar doesn't get too dragged down with oil prices, we could see a substantial drop in prices for next week being set up.

I'll be in touch with everyone more often than not with this "crisis" piling in on "Big Oil".

George

Up and down week for oil

Distillate prices still work upwards

Media release

Conception Bay south, NL, June 14,2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some slight changes to fuel prices this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this Thursday morning. That's from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

" There's not much change at all on the gasoline front. The number rings in close to zero, but what is readily apparent is the price of distillate fuels like heating, stove oils and diesel that are showing increases to prices again. I think it's alarming to see, especially in a season when traditionally, we see heating oil prices drop," Murphy said.

"It's disturbing to see consumers of heating and stove oils take a pounding in the wallet with prices still elevated close to the dollar a litre mark."

Here are the projected increases for Thursday:

• Heating and stove oils are up again by 1.69 cents a litre.
• Diesel is showing up again as well by 1.8 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent.

Some market notes

• The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop in crude oil inventories. The oil industry organisation represents oil producers and retailer/refiners in the United States also reported a gain in US inventories of gasoline, helping to keep prices steady this week.
• Gasoline demand also dropped in the US to average 9.16 million barrels of consumption per day, down 2.8% from the same period last year, the single biggest drop in demand recorded in four months.
• Diesel consumption in China is up. Way up, indicating a busy economy, in spite of inflation which is fast becoming a factor in prices of commodity goods coming from the Asian country. The Chinese government is responding by ordering banks to tighten the money supply, trying to slow the flow of cash in the markets there. Another way they have done that is by raising interest rates.
• Back again, south of the border where oil rebounded today on "less than expected" bad news on the retail front. News there indicated a modest drop in retail sales of just .2%, less than what economists expected. It was a market indicator that consumers are adjusting to higher energy prices and are spending in other areas as they adjust habits.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

European Union debt cuts oil price

More news out of the European Union today has caused a tumultuous drop in oil prices. By now, speculators should be asking themselves why they should trust even their own trading!

Standard and Poor's had their say in Greece's debt problems today, and they also scored points with consumers as they helped to drop oil prices today by close on $2.50 US a barrel.

They cut Greece's credit rating to 'CCC', just above junk status, and also said the Mediterranean country has a high likelihood of skimping out on debt payments in the future. That's not good news to the European union, especially as we all struggle towards some sort of an economic recovery.

Numbers
Here's what I have so far for this pricing session, with one more day to go before the price change data is complete. Don't expect much change to gas prices with numbers like these!:

• Heating and stove oils still show increases again this week by 1.74 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 1.8 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers for everyone.

Regards,

George

Closing a comm center could be a tragedy in waiting

Good morning to everyone.

I know this one is not my "forte" as such, but I wanted to send my thoughts on the closure of the Coast Guard's marine communications center here in St. John's as a result of federal government cuts to the budget.

This is a short note on why the center should remain open, not that a lot of you haven't got notes on that already, but I think this one might be of importance too
.

Here's my thoughts

We are entering a period of what is called the "solar maximum". During a solar maximum the sun is subject to all sorts of funny things like an increase in "sun spots" that causes a higher level of radiation in earth's atmosphere as well as the increased risk of solar flaring.

Here's a major one from just the other day: http://www.spaceweather.com/

Solar flaring can mean big trouble to anything that uses electricity or is subject to the use of atmospherics, like satellites, and of course we all know about the big power outages on the eastern seaboard, and in Quebec, that was caused by a massive solar flare in 1986. Or, at least, i think it was in that year.

More:

1) Radio signals have a tendency to get degraded during solar flare activity.

If a radio signal becomes degraded, it does not get out to those who need to hear it. Range of a signal is shortened at a time when it may very well need to be heard the most. I've been playing with everything from CB radios to shortwave listening over the past 30 years, and I've experienced degradation of radio signals enough to have my own degraded that I've lost the signal from stations before.

A radio that is having trouble with degradation because of solar flaring activity also has to contend with another problem
.

2) There is proof already that solar flaring also disrupts GPS equipment.Several NOTAM's and notices about the degradation of GPS signals are already out there in the radio world the last few months. If a GPS is off because the satellite system is knocked out by solar flaring, accidents can happen and that also can happen for any airline that uses GPS or a fly by wire flight system.

Here's a link to an aviation story: http://www.foraviators.info/solar-storms-spell-trouble-for-gps

That means trouble, or the greater potential for trouble
.

If signals are degraded, right off the bat, we have a signal that needs to be heard by someone another 1500 miles from where a person or persons may be in need of help. How does one hear the call if it does happen? It should be a worry and a concern as the Federal government gets stupid in the closure of this important radio center.

Don't let them get away with it!

Just thought I'd spill my two cents worth.

Regards,

George Murphy

Enter the governing council!

Good news out of Libya this evening may prove to be good news for consumers down the road.

Tesoro Energy out of the United States have signed with the governing council in eastern Libya for the first shipment of crude oil to leave Libyan waters since the start of unrest there a few months ago.

Libya is a chief exporter of crude oil from North Africa, exporting almost 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, that is, before the "revolution" started there.

The deal is for an initial purchase of 1.2 million barrels.

Any added crude oil to the markets at this point should be just enough to mitigate any increases for a little bit.

We'll see what happens.

Story here.

George

Up and down in the markets

Gas prices down, but distillate fuels up

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 07, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will find evidence of the 'up and down' to the markets this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this Thursday morning. That's from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Numbers are reflective of what happened with inventories late last week when data showed a drop in distillate fuels and a gain for inventories of gasoline," Murphy said."It's been all over the map since, with no real sign of stability. Oddly enough, inventories of crude oil increased by 2.9 million barrels even though there was an increase in refinery production, reaching a full 86 per cent, the highest level in weeks."

The numbers

"Heating and stove oils show upwards movement by 1.03 cents a litre. Diesel should increase by 1.5 cents. That is probably in line with inventory reports that showed a drop in distillate inventories by close on a million barrels. Someone is burning a lot of distillate fuel out there, most likely diesel fuel."

"Gasoline is showing the opposite: down by 2.6 cents a litre. Gasoline inventories were up last week by 2.6 million barrels for the week, probably the reason behind the drop in prices.

Oil prices may drop

There are also strong signs that OPEC member countries are getting ready to ramp up production, citing the need to keep the world economy moving in the face of slow, or even falling economic recovery. The group of producers led by Saudi Arabia, are presently meeting in Vienna.The talk is about adding 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day to present production quotas. If that happens, it could be a plus to helping prices drop. The Saudis are concerned that high oil prices will further damage world economic recovery and they're pushing fellow OPEC members to help drop the price of oil to a more 'manageable' seventy to eighty dollars US a barrel from it's present level of around the hundred US level it presently sits at.

But there is another cause for concern.

"If the group does raise quotas, then that leaves spare refinery capacity at a minimum while Libyan production is off-line with ongoing political turmoil. Libyan production matches that of the proposed OPEC production increase: 1.5 million barrels per day. The difference here is in the interpretation of the news here. Investing agencies are concerned with losing capacity when consumers are saying that capacity is there. Just not online at this moment. I believe we're close to a retreat in prices, especially if demand for gasoline and distillate fuels stagnates."

"We'll wait and see."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

*Just a footnote to this story really. demand for gasoline products this past week was recorded at 1.3% lower than the same recording period for last year. That's pretty important to see at this time, and another sign of probably what's coming.

Numbers all over the place

Here's what I have with just tomorrow's trading to figure in on the numbers:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 92/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows an added 1.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 2.4 cents a litre.

Just like I said a little bit ago; that I thought the numbers were going to be bouncing all over the place!

Still a little volatility out there it seems!

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers on what to expect for Thursday, but for now, it looks like gas will be down.

Ontario readers: Your prices will be down tonight (June 6th) by 1.6 cents a litre.

That's it for now!

Regards,

George

Oil prices bounce back

Consumers to take a hit

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 31, 2011- Consumers will see a solid move upwards in prices when they hit the pumps on Thursday morning. That's according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Numbers are solidly up this week after oil's rally in the markets," Murphy said."Prices rebounded for oil and that pushed refined prices up further after they made a move upwards even before oil prices did. I don't get it, especially when crude oil supplies are the highest they've been in two years and demand is dropping off somewhat."

What the numbers say

"Heating and stove oils are up by 2.94 cents a litre. There's still no sign of a drop in the price of the important winter heating fuels when there should be. We're entering a non-demand season for heating oil and the numbers are rising. Diesel is also moving upwards, showing an increase on the way of 3.2 cents a litre."

"Gasoline prices will also take a move upwards with that fuel showing an added 3.8 cents a litre at the pumps come Thursday morning, the first increase in four weeks. It's easy to tell we're into the US summer driving season. Not only are the leaves coming out, the speculators are too.

Changes need to be made to trading laws

News out of the United States late last week included proof from our group that changes needed to be made to trading laws in Canada, besides south of the border. The United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has pressed charges against two speculators who made over $50 million US trading in the WTI crude oil futures market between January and April of 2008. Senators are looking for changes to trading laws
.

"What they were doing was a practice called "shorting", or trading a commodity for a sum of money and then selling very quickly for a profit before paying the original bill. It was like going to a car lot, bargaining a price for the car, then turning and selling it to someone else for a huge profit before you had even paid for the car. It's like these guys thought they owned the markets before they had to pay for the trades they made."

"Is it ironic that these two may have been just part of the reason why oil prices enjoyed a run-up to $147 US a barrel that spring, only to collapse, and almost caused a catastrophe in the world economy with high energy prices? Someone try and tell me that Canada shouldn't act to protect consumers from this."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Three's across the board

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but...

Here's the latest that I have with what's happening with prices this week.

One day to go here, but there's not likely to be much change between now and Thursday. Here's what I have so far:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 2.79 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added three cents, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.6 cents.

Almost the same as last week for gasoline in the opposite way, with the exception of diesel and heating/stove oil numbers.

What I have noticed here this past week is how much the Canadian dollar showed "steady" while refined commodity prices added almost ten cents a gallon US for the week.

Also, still no strategic retreat in heating and stove oil numbers, in spite of those fuels being in the "non-demand' season.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.

George

Third week in a row...

Consumers to catch a break

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 24, 2011 - For the third week in a row, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be getting a break at the pumps again this week, if the numbers are right. That's from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Volatility is not the word to describe what's been happening in the markets these last couple of weeks, and it shows in the numbers again," said Murphy. "Fourteen years at this, and I just can't describe what's going on in the markets. The evidence points towards a sell-off, but then there's a complete turn-around and they rebound again, but then they go nowhere. It's a very odd situation.

What's in the numbers

"Heating and stove oils show a slight increase of 7/100ths of a cent and diesel shows down by 3/10ths, close to what they showed last week. There's not much move in distillates which is a little mystifying in light of the non-demand season for heating oils. There should be some sign of a retreat. Its price may be supported as a result of diesel fuel being the world's most used fuel for transportation purposes, and heating/stove oils are also part of the same distillate group. My margin for error is three tenths of a cent, so there may be no change in price at all with those fuels.

"Gasoline is showing that consumers will see a more significant drop in prices with that fuel showing down by 3.4 cents a litre. While gasoline did not show a significant increase in inventory, it was the fact that inventories were up that ended up being reflected in prices again this week. It showed a case of 'enough is enough' by consumers out there, and they also let it be known with demand for gasoline being tepid at best. Of course, these numbers may also be subject to the volatility that was reflected in the markets the past couple of weeks!

At play in the markets

"I think there's still a lot of volatility in the markets out there. Things have not come even yet as there are simply too many factors at play. High prices remain a factor with consumers and that has also hindered economic recovery with disposable income being swallowed up in the United States. We're also seeing the impact of the ongoing debt crisis in Europe as some of the European Union countries namely Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, and now Italy, deal with their debt-load. Austerity programming is not going over well with the citizenry there. The problems with European debt-load is causing a drain on the Euro and that has resulted in a withdrawal in commodities like oil as speculators pour their dollars into the US dollar.

Where prices may be going

"While the US dollar is showing signs of increasing in value, the Canadian dollar has experienced a slight retreat with it's close connection to oil prices. We may be coming close to the end of price drops for now, that is, unless we see some continuation of the factors like the European debt crisis play through, or consumers remain vigilant about consumption and the high price of fuel. But by the look of things, the price drop honeymoon may be over for now."

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers down again

Hope everyone had a good weekend, in spite of the weather around here. I guess some of us who had to work this weekend helped the oil companies along by turning up the thermostats a little bit!

Here's what I have, with six days of data in:

• Heating and stove oils are down by a scant 1/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel is down by 4/10ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline is still showing down by 3.6 cents a litre.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers for this Thursday's price change.

Regards,

George

Here's a little week-end tidbit for you. These guys are trying to take credit for the work of others, namely you. No surprise with that I guess. Some say it's politics.

I think they're getting tired myself...

Tired government trying to take credit for others ideas

Media release

Conception Bay South, May 20, 2011- Consumers shouldn't be surprised to find the province's finance minister try and take credit for the ideas of another party, that's a regular occurrance. What they should be offended at is the fact that government forgets the history of the removal of tax on heat idea going back to 1997 and a resulting petition drive against the government in 2001.

"If they had any gumption, they would have recognised that this idea of the removal of tax on heat was not their idea, not given them via the finance minister on Humber Road, or by a senior who asked the finance minister to remove the tax just weeks before the budget, but given to them by 55,000 of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador on March 28, 2001 via a petition in the House of Assembly back then to remove the tax on heat in a petition drive led by our consumer group."

He's forgetting his history, and he obviously wasn't a big listener of the Open Line radio shows".

"The finance minister should give credit where credit is due, and stop being so disingenuous and just get on with it", said Murphy.

It has also been stated in the House of assembly many time since 2003 from the province's New Democratic Party that the tax on heat should go.

It was also stated by the province's New Democrats that they should remove the tax and also retain the heating rebate. Just a reminder to everyone that, while it may be slow in the Confederation Building today, putting out an update on applicable tax rule changes does not give the government the right to say that removing the tax on heat and retention of the heat rebate was their idea.

It's a sign that this government is fast running out of original ideas and that it's getting tired of governance. Now is the time for vigilance, everyone!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

(709)744-2689

(709)685-6186 cellular

Here's the link to the government release: http://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2011/fin/0520n01.htm

Look out!
NHC announces its hurricane outlook

It's not even into June month yet, but already we're hearing from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

You know what that means...

The NHC is making dire predictions on hurricanes this year, calling for upwards of six major hurricanes of a category three or greater nature to form in the Atlantic. Their predictions say that winds from these hurricanes have the potential to blow in with winds up to 111 miles per hour or better.

But keep in mind the storms also do something else.

Hurricane syndrome
They're a harbinger of things to come on the oil front. No doubt that as soon as the first storm gets named and it's on it's way to the eastern seaboard, investors and the speculators will again step in and attempt to speculate on the disaster scenario, thus driving up prices again. I like to call the whole oil play they pull as Hurricane Syndrome.

Just another reason for "made in Canada" pricing...

How much attention will the markets give to the hurricane news remains to be seen.

I will give you my prediction; that someone is going to try to make a dollar from it!

See the release here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

Numbers so far
In the meantime, it's only early into the next regulatory session, so, I'll echo a word of caution here. The numbers are again pointing downwards for next Thursday.

Here's what I have so far:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 23/100ths
• Diesel is down by a half cent, and...
• Gasoline is down by 3.8 cents a litre.

Toronto and area will see prices down by another penny tonight as spot prices dipped again today to hit 72.8 cents a litre.

That's it for now!

Look for the next note on the numbers when you get back from the May two-four weekend.

Be safe!

George

Economy plays a role

Consumers to catch a break

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 17, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a historic first this Thursday when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices. That's from George Murphy, group researcher and member for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"The downwards pressure continues to rage on oil prices as economic factors start to play in the markets.A simple case of consumers butting heads with price of commodities is mainly responsible as we see that tell-tale drop in demand and a gain in gasoline inventories last week", Murphy said.

"The oil speculators are having their troubles turning things around again as the bad economic news in the United States and news of debt troubles in the European Union both continue to play havoc with the markets.

"The numbers are holding for heating, stove oils and diesel with those fuels showing negligent change. Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3/100ths of a cent, while diesel shows an increase of two tenths of a cent. Those numbers are within my margin for error of three tenths of a cent a litre so, don't look for any change there."

"Gasoline is showing a drop now of 3.3 cents a ltre now, all ahead of the traditional start of the US summer driving season, as the markets traditionally ran up prices in the weeks ahead of the US Memorial day holiday weekend. The season may be a bit of a dud for investors, if the news like the last week gets worse. Today, it was news on house re-sale activity that didn't do investors any favours, and more news dealing with Greek debt from Europe that has investors troubled with the value of the Euro again.

"That helped investors turn their eyes to the US dollar as a hedge against inflation, rather than leave it in things like commodities and the Euro, and the sell-off began last week as a result. It may spell continued problems for oil prices, if European Union money troubles start to come into play again later this week.

"The markets also saw consumers bumping heads with prices as demand fell off. Gasoline inventories showed an unexpected gain along with rising crude oil inventories, a warning sign amidst refinery production at a low 81.7 per cent rate. It was a simple case of consumers getting tired of the high price and choosing to do something else besides drive, and their collective actions spelled trouble for oil and it's related, refined commodities. It was a hard lesson for Big Oil and investors to learn; that if people don't have the money, they won't drive. It was the law of diminishing returns coming full circle. It's as simple as that."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

***Footnote to this release.
Spot prices have caved downwards by 12 cents a litre since May 10th, with consumer prices here still expecting another three and some-odd cents to come besides what I have in the release. Look for further breaks as a result next week. At least, that's the indication so far...

"Say it ain't so, Joe!"
Not another price drop!

You saw it here first from my sarcastic self, and yes, you read it right...

It's been a wild roller-coaster ride on the markets for the past two weeks now, and there's no sign of abatement. The blog had over 2300 hits from people who, like yourself, wanted answers concerning high prices.

We're all still looking and we're not expecting Minister Tony Clement to come up with any either...

"Keep it simple, Tony."

We need a national inventory reporting system and an investigation into present trading laws on the markets. It's just getting too easy to spend money that you don't have, to invest in the markets and turn into a profit before the bills are paid.

It's as simple as that...

In the meantime, while numbers in the immediate Toronto area will be dropping again tonight, the numbers in Newfoundland and Labrador will also take a drop back this Thursday morning, all in time for the long weekend.

Still one more day of data to get my hands on, so the numbers will change slightly from what I have here, but I don't think that there's going to be anything critical in the way of further changes.

Here's what I have so far this session;

• Heating and stove oils show 14/100ths of a cent upwards.
• Diesel shows an added 3/10ths of a cent upwards, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 2.7 cents a litre.

I'll be back tomorrow night with a final run-down on the numbers for this Thursday.

Regards,

George

Could be short-lived

Volatile week results in a break for consumers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 10, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see something that they haven't seen in a long time when they wake to lower prices this coming Thursday morning. That news is from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Enjoy the drop in prices for now, because it may not last long," said Murphy. "Prices are already starting a meteoric climb since last week's drop in oil prices and oil's refined commodities are leading the charge. Consumers in the rest of Canada will be tagged tonight with further increases in prices and numbers are showing a trend toward increases to come to consumers here for next week. I have never seen a week of volatility like this since the Katrina and Rita hurricane events of 2005. There's a lot of instability out there."

Prices to drop

"I have heating and stove oils to drop by 6.86 cents per litre, which is a welcome break to users of that fuel. I'm hoping that pressure will ease off the important heating oils, but there is already a small upwards movement in prices above my average for the last week, which is not good news for next week.

"Diesel fuel shows a downwards move this week by 6.9 cents a litre but is also trending upwards for next week's price setting, showing a two cent a litre increase so far
.

"Gasoline now shows a drop of 2.8 cents a litre, now a full four cents off what the numbers showed after just one day of data last week. It's indicative of what has occurred in the markets for the past week. Numbers for gasoline are already showing that, if the trend holds, consumers could see an increase coming of up to six cents a litre if the trend holds for the next seven days. The markets could in fact turn the opposite way again before then, so I'm insecure about saying what is the definite here for next week, but there is a trend developing."

Putting the screws deeper

Big Oil is having a field day and speculators are in for the ride now. Oil has dropped by sixteen bucks US the past week trading down from $113.93 US on April 29th to drop back to $97.16 US on May 6th, only to recover to $103.88 for today, May 10th. In that time, refined commodities have climbed back up to April 29th levels again with oil off the 29th mark still by ten dollars US a barrel. I can't find a reasonable explanation as to why that is, but someone out there in the realms of the speculator is now making a heck of a lot of money. Best thing is, is that they don't have to explain it to anyone. They're no longer accountable. I'm willing to bet that refined commodity prices will not show a retreat while oil still advances to it's old mark set last week, then you'll know."

"Other region of the continent will be in for sticker shock, particularly our US neighbours. They'll take a hit upwards tonight by thirteen cents a gallon and diesel will increase by another nickel US. Other areas of Canada will also take a hit tonight with Toronto prices climbing another three cents a litre and other regulated markets possibly taking a more substantial hit later this week. This volatility in the markets is playing itself North America wide. I believe that the economy is soon going to pay the price if there is no retreat in fuel pricing. I believe that we've arrived at a breaking point."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Good news and bad news...

Put it this way.

Anytime prices come down, it's a good thing, so I guess it's all good so far this week, but it was a much different story than last Thursday when gas numbers showed close on seven cents a litre down.

After the rally in oil prices since Friday, I'm surprised that numbers are still down. I haven't seen volatility in the numbers like this in a long time, but it does show how unstable the markets are. Here's what I have so far this session with Monday trading numbers in the mix:

• Heating and stove oils show down by 7.13 cents a litre.
• Diesel is also down by 7.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline is down by 3.8 cents a litre.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final breakdown on what to expect. All numbers will still be down, however...

Regards,

George