On the tail end of last week...
Consumer pricing to drop again
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 29, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will again see some drops in most petroleum pricing, all this coming on the tail-end of market activity last week.
What consumers will see
“With five days of seven days data needed, consumers will see close to 2.8 cents a litre down on gasoline while heating and stove oils will drop by close to 4.1 cents a litre. The heating-stove oil number may also be an indicator of where diesel pricing may be going as well which will be welcome to the transportation and fishing industries in the province. They’ve been waiting for a long time to see pricing come down.
Cold comfort in the heating-stove oil numbers
“Heating and stove oil numbers have come down in recent days but there is still a long way to come down just to reach year-ago levels. Heating oils will still be 37 cents a litre higher than the same time last year and that’s with this weeks projected drop in pricing included. If we don’t see a concerted drop in oil and related refined commodity pricing, then there is big trouble ahead this winter for consumers. It may be hot outside now but the numbers are providing cold comfort for consumers when looking at last years numbers. There’s still nothing here for consumers to be happy about in spite of recent drops in pricing.
What will oil do in the next little while
“OPEC production is picking up in spite of a drop in demand in recent weeks and that figures heavily this week as we see the numbers change in the consumers favour again. OPEC member Saudi Arabia was responsible for some increase in available crude oil on the markets as the OPEC country promised an added 300,000 barrel increase in June and added another 200,000 starting this July. That second oil increase will make its play in the markets shortly and we’ll see a small move back to the US dollar as an investment rather than commodities-at least for the time being. That may mean some slight relief to come for consumers as both demand and inflation weigh in on overall consumption and the high price of oil plays as a mitigating factor in consumer purchases.
Other factors remain in play
“Consumers still have to be on guard for other conditions that remain in play in the markets. We still have the promise of world geo-political situations like Nigeria and the Middle East and Iran that can show their ugly head at any time as Nigeria did in yesterdays market play. We still have Hurricane Syndrome playing in the markets as well with the markets playing with weather conditions and possible supply and refining disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders will use anything right now, to help support oil pricing rather than see a decrease caused by market actualities in the future.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Group researcher/Member
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Saturday, July 26, 2008
First notice...
Numbers pointing down again
Funny title for an article I know...
More to come on this one but, just to let you all know, I'm tracking drops in gasoline and heating-stove oils from the tail-end of market activities last week. Numbers so far, are showing about three cents down on gasoline and four down on heating-stove oils.
Watch the blog Tuesday morning for more coverage on what these numbers will be. I'll have something a little more definitive as the days go by but, remember, anything can happen in the markets on Monday-Tuesday to strike a reverse in things.
Let's keep the fingers crossed...
Regards,
George
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Interruption possible for all fuels
Recent market activity warrants the use of interrupter formula
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 22, 2008 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see the use of the Petroleum Pricing Office’s interruption formula this week as all numbers are showing that gasoline and heating-stove oils have met the criteria required.
“Consumers can expect to see the use of the formula for gasoline as well as for heating and stove oils. I also expect that diesel will also fall under the criteria based simply on the most recent market activities. When oil pricing loses as much as it did last week, then you also expect for the related refined commodity to do the same,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“With five of seven days data at hand, I have gasoline to drop by 9.9 cents a litre and heating-stove oils to drop by 7.7 cents a litre. Initial numbers showed a 9 and 6 scenario was the more likely based on the first two days data. The heating oil number may be a good indicator of where diesel may be going as well. We now have five days and that’s why the numbers have changed. I expect there to be little change when the other two days data become available.
“Markets for oil traded down based on the troubles the markets are seeing with the world economy right now. We’re facing economic slowdown, a drop in consumer demand overall and that has led to some tidy gains in oil and commodity inventories. The previous fears of an economic blockade against Iran and it’s pursuit of a nuclear program abated somewhat and the possible supply disruption scenario from that area was gone from the traders basis for the elevated price. Hence, the consumer will see some relief in pricing this week.
“We know that high pricing has become an undue hardship for a lot of people and we’ve written a note to the Public Utilities Board asking them to pass these substantial savings on to the consumer in this province ahead of the ‘scheduled’ interruption price change to consumers. We want these savings passed to consumers for Tuesday midnight instead of the Thursday implementation just to bring emergency relief to consumers out there. Based on the performance of the dropping price in other markets, I think we should like to see something happen here sooner rather than later.
“Right now, some markets have seen corresponding drops in numbers where there is still competition in the areas involved. Some areas of Toronto have seen pricing drop by as much as what I have on paper for this area now. We need to see some redress to consumers and being as extraordinary situation as we’ve seen in the markets since last Tuesday; I feel that the consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador deserves to see the break early.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Recent market activity warrants the use of interrupter formula
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 22, 2008 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see the use of the Petroleum Pricing Office’s interruption formula this week as all numbers are showing that gasoline and heating-stove oils have met the criteria required.
“Consumers can expect to see the use of the formula for gasoline as well as for heating and stove oils. I also expect that diesel will also fall under the criteria based simply on the most recent market activities. When oil pricing loses as much as it did last week, then you also expect for the related refined commodity to do the same,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“With five of seven days data at hand, I have gasoline to drop by 9.9 cents a litre and heating-stove oils to drop by 7.7 cents a litre. Initial numbers showed a 9 and 6 scenario was the more likely based on the first two days data. The heating oil number may be a good indicator of where diesel may be going as well. We now have five days and that’s why the numbers have changed. I expect there to be little change when the other two days data become available.
“Markets for oil traded down based on the troubles the markets are seeing with the world economy right now. We’re facing economic slowdown, a drop in consumer demand overall and that has led to some tidy gains in oil and commodity inventories. The previous fears of an economic blockade against Iran and it’s pursuit of a nuclear program abated somewhat and the possible supply disruption scenario from that area was gone from the traders basis for the elevated price. Hence, the consumer will see some relief in pricing this week.
“We know that high pricing has become an undue hardship for a lot of people and we’ve written a note to the Public Utilities Board asking them to pass these substantial savings on to the consumer in this province ahead of the ‘scheduled’ interruption price change to consumers. We want these savings passed to consumers for Tuesday midnight instead of the Thursday implementation just to bring emergency relief to consumers out there. Based on the performance of the dropping price in other markets, I think we should like to see something happen here sooner rather than later.
“Right now, some markets have seen corresponding drops in numbers where there is still competition in the areas involved. Some areas of Toronto have seen pricing drop by as much as what I have on paper for this area now. We need to see some redress to consumers and being as extraordinary situation as we’ve seen in the markets since last Tuesday; I feel that the consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador deserves to see the break early.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
By the way, be sure and leave any comments you might have. They all help... whether constructive...or not...lol
Thursday, July 17, 2008
What goes up...
Must come down...
I know...
This increase surprised me a little too...
I just didn't know anything about retailers looking for the added 1.25 cents on their margins, not that they didn't deserve it now mind you. What makes me sick about it is that the 'majors' will get it too, as far as I know.
All in all, my numbers in the end allowed for an added 7/10ths of a cent a litre (with my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent) on gasoline and I also had 2.9 down on heating and stove oils. It was that extra 1.25 added that put the screws to my numbers this time.
Here's what I wanted to let you all in on though...
I've been getting a lot of emails on why our prices haven't come down the same as other jurisdictions and I do have an answer for everyone on that...
Hold off as much as you can until next Thursday, the 24th...
Here's why...
Our regulatory system uses what I like to call a "passive" system of regulation; that is, it waits for events to happen in the markets for a two week period and then reacts to what has occurred during that two weeks of business. Prices that were set this morning were set based on the timeframe of July 2nd and July 15th, from a Wednesday to a Tuesday.
Tuesday was when we saw oil first take it's precipitous dip down, if you remember...
The problem here was exactly that; that prices didn't dip for oil until that last day of the regulatory period. Call it bad luck, but other markets including the immediate Toronto markets, saw prices for gasoline hit $1.40 for the same timeframe which is not unusual for what we saw in crude oil prices.
Our prices never moved during the same time...
Here's where we might see something happen the other way however...
The fall in crude oil prices continues, so much so, that my numbres are already showing the likelihood of a interruption scenario taking shape, only this time DOWN in price. With only the first day of the regulatory period on record, already I'm showing dowjn on gasoline by near eight cents a litre and heating/stove oils down by nearly the same.
I'll be cautious on this one though...
Anything can happen in the markets that might see a complete and utter reversal of what Tuesday saw in the markets and the whole interrupt scenario might be thrown to the wind. I'm holding back on my purchases in the meantime in the hopes that we might see something in the offing next week.
You might want to do the same...
Reagrds,
George Murphy
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Gasoline prices to remain steady-Heating and stove oils to drop
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 15, 2008- Consumers of gasoline in Newfoundland and Labrador shouldn’t see much change in gasoline prices this week when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices again, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What the numbers say
“From the looks of things, gasoline prices may show no change according to the first twelve days of data and today’s market activities. Right now, those numbers are showing almost a ‘break even’ scenario. The numbers are slightly different on the heating oil front. Numbers there are showing an almost 1.5 cent a litre decline and that doesn’t include the market sell-off of distillates we’re witnessing right now. Heating and stove oils may drop more than what we have on paper right now,” said Murphy.
“I would expect the heating oil numbers to be the same for stove oils and that should also reflect a very modest decline in diesel prices. How long will the slight retreat in pricing last would be anyone’s guess at this juncture. We already see a possible winter record for heating and stove oil pricing barring any economic collapse and drop in distillate demand. Today the markets are reflecting the stark reality that we’ve seen all along; that consumers are hurting because of high petroleum pricing. Now that various economies failed to react to the rising costs of oil, we’re seeing deeper economic impact and the likelihood of recession. Because of that, there’s a drop in pricing today because of the fears of a drop in petroleum demand. What traders have sown, the economy can reap.
Not out of the woods yet
“Waiting in the wings are other possible factors that could increase pricing again. We are, of course, into Hurricane Syndrome season and that means possible plays in the markets that reflect possible supply disruptions or disruptions to imports. We remember well Katrina and Rita in September ’05. Venezuela also is promising to cut off supply of crude oil to the United States if Exxon Mobil is successful in freezing the assets of the national-owned Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets. Other geo-political factors remain in play such as the ongoing disruptions in Nigeria, OPEC talk of possible production cuts in the face of a drop in world demand and, of course, consumer demand factors.
Last independent retailer to be sold?
There is some concern over the rumored sale of Tibb’s Oil in the immediate St. John’s heating oil market. I have received a couple of calls this week expressing the consumers concern over the possible sale of the area’s last independent retailer and the effect on the heating oil market if there are no independents left. This should be a concern to most after the recent sale of Forward’s Oil to Harvey’s Oil this past April. If wee see the sale of Tibb’s Oil to some other company, we will have seen the removal of the last independent heating oil retailers from the St. John’s market and that means some possible trouble to consumers of the product. I believe that there will be an adverse affect on the retail heating market in the area and that may lead to one company having a more than obvious dominant market position let alone the removal of competition in the market.
I think that, if the rumors were found to be true, then the Competition Bureau should be made to look at the situation and prevent the sale of the company to just that one retailer. It’s here that we need to stand on guard to protect consumers from any dominant market scenario. The problem here is that high heating oil prices themselves have become a factor in the independents demise. A lower sales volume because of an increasing price may well have been a factor in the sale, if it is true. I’m still trying to dig into this one.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 15, 2008- Consumers of gasoline in Newfoundland and Labrador shouldn’t see much change in gasoline prices this week when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices again, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What the numbers say
“From the looks of things, gasoline prices may show no change according to the first twelve days of data and today’s market activities. Right now, those numbers are showing almost a ‘break even’ scenario. The numbers are slightly different on the heating oil front. Numbers there are showing an almost 1.5 cent a litre decline and that doesn’t include the market sell-off of distillates we’re witnessing right now. Heating and stove oils may drop more than what we have on paper right now,” said Murphy.
“I would expect the heating oil numbers to be the same for stove oils and that should also reflect a very modest decline in diesel prices. How long will the slight retreat in pricing last would be anyone’s guess at this juncture. We already see a possible winter record for heating and stove oil pricing barring any economic collapse and drop in distillate demand. Today the markets are reflecting the stark reality that we’ve seen all along; that consumers are hurting because of high petroleum pricing. Now that various economies failed to react to the rising costs of oil, we’re seeing deeper economic impact and the likelihood of recession. Because of that, there’s a drop in pricing today because of the fears of a drop in petroleum demand. What traders have sown, the economy can reap.
Not out of the woods yet
“Waiting in the wings are other possible factors that could increase pricing again. We are, of course, into Hurricane Syndrome season and that means possible plays in the markets that reflect possible supply disruptions or disruptions to imports. We remember well Katrina and Rita in September ’05. Venezuela also is promising to cut off supply of crude oil to the United States if Exxon Mobil is successful in freezing the assets of the national-owned Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets. Other geo-political factors remain in play such as the ongoing disruptions in Nigeria, OPEC talk of possible production cuts in the face of a drop in world demand and, of course, consumer demand factors.
Last independent retailer to be sold?
There is some concern over the rumored sale of Tibb’s Oil in the immediate St. John’s heating oil market. I have received a couple of calls this week expressing the consumers concern over the possible sale of the area’s last independent retailer and the effect on the heating oil market if there are no independents left. This should be a concern to most after the recent sale of Forward’s Oil to Harvey’s Oil this past April. If wee see the sale of Tibb’s Oil to some other company, we will have seen the removal of the last independent heating oil retailers from the St. John’s market and that means some possible trouble to consumers of the product. I believe that there will be an adverse affect on the retail heating market in the area and that may lead to one company having a more than obvious dominant market position let alone the removal of competition in the market.
I think that, if the rumors were found to be true, then the Competition Bureau should be made to look at the situation and prevent the sale of the company to just that one retailer. It’s here that we need to stand on guard to protect consumers from any dominant market scenario. The problem here is that high heating oil prices themselves have become a factor in the independents demise. A lower sales volume because of an increasing price may well have been a factor in the sale, if it is true. I’m still trying to dig into this one.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Friday, July 11, 2008
Economic warfare 101
Oil is a funny thing...
Give it to one country when there is a high demand and you have the world's attention...
Such is the case of Iran today where oil again, is trading up on the news that Iran will "pull the trigger" if Israel attacks Iran's main nuclear facilities. As a result, there's also a promise of supply disruptions from the Middle east country that amounts to some 4.4 million barrels a day so, if the Israelis do attack the facilities at Natanz like they did at Osiraq in Iraq in 1981, we have a problem. Overall production will not be met by OPEC to cover the needs of an oil-thirsty world and prices will skyrocket because demand will not be met. Spare capacity cannot be met by the group.
A BIG problem...
It's like this. If Iran does disrupt production then we can thirst for heating oil a few dollars more. Gasoline prices will most likely reach unheard of levels.
The likelihood of an attack by the Israelis is good as they've done it before and with perfect execution. Without loss to themselves, Israel launched a daring raid against Iraq's nuclear research facilities by flying below radar over Jordan, the Iraq countryside and below radar defenses. The attacks that knocked out Iraqi facilities was over in less than a half hour and the Israeli air force flew back unscathed to home soil.
If yesterdays missile tests are any indication, expect to hear of a raid carried out by Israeli forces almost any day now. Israel will not sit lightly and wait for Iran to strike first. They've never been one to turn the cheek since Munich .
To tell you the truth, I couldn't blame them one bit.
I just can't stop thinking how much the Iranian government might be making on oil just because it is rattling sabres again, photo-shopped pictures and all.
Economic warfare.
Coming soon to a gas pump near you.
Keep the oil tank filled if you can...
Regards,
George
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Heating and stove oils…
Interruption possible this week to heating and stove oil prices
“Last week it was a drawdown in crude inventory, as miniscule as it was, the ongoing world geo-political situation in
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Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Saturday, July 05, 2008
Don't look now, but...
If the latest numbers are any indicator, the price of home heating oil will most likely take its largest single summertime jump that I have ever recorded...
What does that mean?
In all likelihood, prices for heating and stove oils will take a jump up to the highest yet recorded for the immediate St. John's area to $1.29 a litre for the necessity. In other words, the Petroleum Pricing Office will have to use its interruption formula to adjust pricing.
Not saying it's going to be a definite here but, hey...Be warned...There's a strong possibility...
Blame this one on the speculators again...
Regards,
George
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Numbers pointing down, but…
No big changes to fuel pricing forthcoming
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, July 1, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be surprised to hear that there will be no large price change this time around when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices this coming Thursday although the numbers are pointing slightly down.
“Numbers here show that gasoline will drop by 1.5 cents per litre and heating-stove oils by 1.97 cents. Bear in mind that those numbers were for twelve days out of fourteen needed and oil has traded well up from last week which may have brought these numbers closer to a ‘no change’ or ‘0’ level albeit, still slightly down. We may have been victimized out of a substantial downwards move in prices by the rapid changes in the world geo-political situation in the last few days”, said George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Reasons why prices are still up
“Continued tensions between
“Heavy investment continues in the oil markets as the US Federal Reserve continues to stay away from any rate increases that could help bolster the US dollar and also provide that important hedge to inflation fears. It remains a mystery as to why they haven’t raised rates.
Oil outlook for the winter not good
There is no sign of relief in heating and stove oil prices as the markets continue to trade distillates at record levels. Prices on the futures markets are also trading higher than last year and that means no immediate relief coming for users of those products ahead of September. It doesn’t help to see the markets trading distillates higher on word that diesel fuel has become the pre-eminent transportation fuel of choice. Heating oil continues to trade close to $4.00 a
Marine Atlantic rate increases could have been avoided
Consumers and industry could have avoided taking a hit from Marine Atlantic if the federal company had only implemented some fuel saving arrangements. Tons of fuel could have been saved merely by reducing the speed that the ferries cross the
As a result of oil price increases, Newfoundland Power was forced last week to pass on rate increases to consumers based on oil-generated electricity costs. What should have happened was the provincial government, through Newfoundland Hydro, should have been made to absorb the additional costs to oil-generated electricity. While we can’t interfere with the private operations of the publicly-traded Newfoundland Power, the government could have changed the Hydro Act to get the crown corporation to absorb the oil hit to consumers. We know that Hydro is owned by us, but we still don’t have the power to dictate how it uses its money or its profit; Government does and we are the government. This was a totally unnecessary increase that caused an undue amount of hardship to a lot of consumers. We really won’t feel their full effect until the weather cools down again and we have a good chance of seeing additional increases as a result of the performance of oil. The price may be good for the government treasury but the consumer has yet to see the full benefits.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Can this be true?
Gasoline and heating prices may drop next week?
Yes, you may be shocked to hear that...
Numbers from the New York Mercantile Exchange today are showing that gasoline, heating oil and stove oil prices may, indeed show a small decrease next week in Newfoundland and Labrador as markets react to the surprise build in overall inventories of crude and distillate supplies.
So far this week, gasoline had been showing about two cents a litre down and heating-stove oils to be down about three cents a litre. We still have another couple of days to go before the next price setting and the numbers I have still don't show for interruption but, hey, I think I'd be holding off as much as possible before I call in the heating oil truck...
Crude oil showed a modest, but important 800 thousand barrel gain against an expected 1.1 million barrel draw against inventory. Guess that's what you get in return for driving up prices in the first place; enforced conservation that's beginning to show itself!
Securities and Exchange Commission
A file is now opened at the US Securites and exchange Commission based on a letter of complaint I sent in dealing with market trading on June 6th that saw oil shoot up by that $10.76 US. We'll let you know what, if anything, comes from that. Ironic as it was, there were a few important resignations from energy trading firms in the immediate days prior to the drive-up in oil prices that prompted me to drop the SEC a note on the matter.
I'll be in touch!
Regards,
George
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
No dodging the bullet this week...
Gasoline prices to take a swipe at consumers this week
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 17, 2008 – Consumers in the province will be taking another hit in the pocketbook this week as prices for gasoline are expected to take a 5.5 cent a litre increase on Thursday, that’s from George Murphy, group researcher and a member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What will consumers see?
“Twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen needed show that prices will jump this week by 5.5 cents per litre at the pumps. It’s not going to be any significant difference, the other two days. The numbers will be close to what we have. While we didn’t get it on the chin last week, we know we’re going to get it this week and this one will hurt. I have a number for heating and stove oils but, I’m not that trusting in the number until I see what the PUB will do this week. I’m showing an upwards move but I want to see if there’s any redress back to what I traditionally had before the numbers went out of whack last week. I never changed my system of measure for the last ten years yet, the numbers went way out of the traditional for the past summers’ measurement so, I don’t want to make a prediction until I see what the PUB moves the figures by. I will tell you though, that the heating and stove oil numbers show ‘up’. Is there a conspiracy against what I do? I don’t know. Someone else will have to answer that,” said Murphy.
Marine Atlantic increases rates
We told you all about a month ago that Marine Atlantic would soon have to adjust rates simply because of the move in distillates and oil pricing but, a conversation I had with Marine Atlantic staff some time ago tells me that the increases may not be necessary if the company does one of two things; namely ask Ottawa to absorb the increases outside of it’s budget or do the environmentally positive thing and slow down the boat by a knot or two. While Ottawa may not do the right thing, the possibility that slowing down the crossing on the Gulf by a knot or two would save untold tons of fuel that is leading to the fuel surcharges being added to the price of a ticket. The sources from Marine Atlantic tell me that slowing down the boat just a little may be able to help the company prevent passing on the hike to the price of the crossing. I’m told that, if they slow the ferry crossing by a knot to conserve fuel, it would add an extra fifteen minutes to the Gulf passage. Can this be true? What has Marine Atlantic done in regards to fuel conservation measures? It also begs the question, is the provincial government getting ready to hit the taxpayer with the same thing here for ferry services?
Inventories take a beating
The news out of the Energy Information Administration last week may have been a little bullish in the extreme but the markets still traded on a downturn in crude inventories never-the-less. “Here we are with something in the order of nine million more barrels of gasoline in the inventory but we see a draw-down in crude oils because of ‘anticipated’ demand. Here we are looking at a drop in consumer demand for gasoline by 1.3 per cent but we still see active trading on anticipated heavy consumer demand. I simply don’t get how these guys do it and the markets get away with it. It’s all bad news in spite of all the good news out there.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
P.S I'll update the numbers on a daily basis as the info becomes available but, i don't anticipate much change in them.
Gasoline prices to take a swipe at consumers this week
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 17, 2008 – Consumers in the province will be taking another hit in the pocketbook this week as prices for gasoline are expected to take a 5.5 cent a litre increase on Thursday, that’s from George Murphy, group researcher and a member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What will consumers see?
“Twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen needed show that prices will jump this week by 5.5 cents per litre at the pumps. It’s not going to be any significant difference, the other two days. The numbers will be close to what we have. While we didn’t get it on the chin last week, we know we’re going to get it this week and this one will hurt. I have a number for heating and stove oils but, I’m not that trusting in the number until I see what the PUB will do this week. I’m showing an upwards move but I want to see if there’s any redress back to what I traditionally had before the numbers went out of whack last week. I never changed my system of measure for the last ten years yet, the numbers went way out of the traditional for the past summers’ measurement so, I don’t want to make a prediction until I see what the PUB moves the figures by. I will tell you though, that the heating and stove oil numbers show ‘up’. Is there a conspiracy against what I do? I don’t know. Someone else will have to answer that,” said Murphy.
Marine Atlantic increases rates
We told you all about a month ago that Marine Atlantic would soon have to adjust rates simply because of the move in distillates and oil pricing but, a conversation I had with Marine Atlantic staff some time ago tells me that the increases may not be necessary if the company does one of two things; namely ask Ottawa to absorb the increases outside of it’s budget or do the environmentally positive thing and slow down the boat by a knot or two. While Ottawa may not do the right thing, the possibility that slowing down the crossing on the Gulf by a knot or two would save untold tons of fuel that is leading to the fuel surcharges being added to the price of a ticket. The sources from Marine Atlantic tell me that slowing down the boat just a little may be able to help the company prevent passing on the hike to the price of the crossing. I’m told that, if they slow the ferry crossing by a knot to conserve fuel, it would add an extra fifteen minutes to the Gulf passage. Can this be true? What has Marine Atlantic done in regards to fuel conservation measures? It also begs the question, is the provincial government getting ready to hit the taxpayer with the same thing here for ferry services?
Inventories take a beating
The news out of the Energy Information Administration last week may have been a little bullish in the extreme but the markets still traded on a downturn in crude inventories never-the-less. “Here we are with something in the order of nine million more barrels of gasoline in the inventory but we see a draw-down in crude oils because of ‘anticipated’ demand. Here we are looking at a drop in consumer demand for gasoline by 1.3 per cent but we still see active trading on anticipated heavy consumer demand. I simply don’t get how these guys do it and the markets get away with it. It’s all bad news in spite of all the good news out there.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
P.S I'll update the numbers on a daily basis as the info becomes available but, i don't anticipate much change in them.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Big win for consumers
Competition Bureau hits a home run
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 13, 2008 – Some oil companies are going to have to “work harder” to gain back the consumers trust after the federal Competition Bureau pressed charges of price fixing and collusion against several Quebec companies yesterday.
Three companies have already pleaded no contest and face up to two million dollars in fines for their folly and one of those companies also has operations here in Newfoundland and Labrador. Ultramar Limited was fined close to 1.9 million in their role in the scheme.
The Bureau is also alleging that other retailers operating under the Shell, Esso, Irving Oil and Petro-Canada picked up the phone and called each other to agree on what price to set.
“Consumers in this country have believed that companies charged the same price because they were afraid of giving any market advantage to the other guy. Now the Bureau has found out that this is not the case. In reality, what they found out was that, at least some of the companies literally made a fortune in spite of ensuring we were ‘getting good value’ for our dollar. Now they have to go to work and try to gain the trust back from us,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“It’s just another reason why we have gas regulation in this province. There’s a lack of trust among oil companies and the lack of competition before regulation was quick to point that out. Fact is, is that oil companies here and elsewhere purchase gasoline and other oil products on different days and the price is different between those companies for that very reason, yet the price didn’t change between companies here. It begs to question if companies here may also be under the scrutiny of the Competition Bureau. Before regulation came in, there was no control to prevent such a thing from happening here. It would not surprise me in the least to learn that the Bureau had companies here under investigation because they failed to drop the price when the markets showed a drop in pricing. It has to be asked of the oil companies here, knowing that there is no regulation of the minimum to be charged here, why they don’t compete on that basis for market share.
“The Competition Act and the Bureau both need to get a little more work. Laws preventing the sharing of supply have to be revisited and such things as ‘reciprocal sales agreements’ and market rationalization of the oil refining industry need to be examined. Companies should never be allowed to share from the one source of supply that happens in some areas of the country, particularly in less populated areas. It is, I believe that simple ‘reciprocal sales’ arrangement that has ‘tempted’ oil companies to charge the same price in the first place. If Ultramar wants to sell here, they should be shipping in their own product from the Montreal refinery instead of buying stock off their competition like Irving or North Atlantic.
“Lead us not into temptation.
“The Competition Bureau and Liberal M.P Dan McTeague both need to be congratulated today for the hard work both parties have put in over the face of this investigation and for the changes in the Competition Act that are being lobbied hard for. What is missing here is restitution back for consumers and a means of levying heavier fines in the wake of the money that these companies garnered at the consumer expense. It’s going to be a long road back for some of these companies to earn consumer trust. These charges show that consumers didn't get value for their money.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Competition Bureau hits a home run
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 13, 2008 – Some oil companies are going to have to “work harder” to gain back the consumers trust after the federal Competition Bureau pressed charges of price fixing and collusion against several Quebec companies yesterday.
Three companies have already pleaded no contest and face up to two million dollars in fines for their folly and one of those companies also has operations here in Newfoundland and Labrador. Ultramar Limited was fined close to 1.9 million in their role in the scheme.
The Bureau is also alleging that other retailers operating under the Shell, Esso, Irving Oil and Petro-Canada picked up the phone and called each other to agree on what price to set.
“Consumers in this country have believed that companies charged the same price because they were afraid of giving any market advantage to the other guy. Now the Bureau has found out that this is not the case. In reality, what they found out was that, at least some of the companies literally made a fortune in spite of ensuring we were ‘getting good value’ for our dollar. Now they have to go to work and try to gain the trust back from us,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“It’s just another reason why we have gas regulation in this province. There’s a lack of trust among oil companies and the lack of competition before regulation was quick to point that out. Fact is, is that oil companies here and elsewhere purchase gasoline and other oil products on different days and the price is different between those companies for that very reason, yet the price didn’t change between companies here. It begs to question if companies here may also be under the scrutiny of the Competition Bureau. Before regulation came in, there was no control to prevent such a thing from happening here. It would not surprise me in the least to learn that the Bureau had companies here under investigation because they failed to drop the price when the markets showed a drop in pricing. It has to be asked of the oil companies here, knowing that there is no regulation of the minimum to be charged here, why they don’t compete on that basis for market share.
“The Competition Act and the Bureau both need to get a little more work. Laws preventing the sharing of supply have to be revisited and such things as ‘reciprocal sales agreements’ and market rationalization of the oil refining industry need to be examined. Companies should never be allowed to share from the one source of supply that happens in some areas of the country, particularly in less populated areas. It is, I believe that simple ‘reciprocal sales’ arrangement that has ‘tempted’ oil companies to charge the same price in the first place. If Ultramar wants to sell here, they should be shipping in their own product from the Montreal refinery instead of buying stock off their competition like Irving or North Atlantic.
“Lead us not into temptation.
“The Competition Bureau and Liberal M.P Dan McTeague both need to be congratulated today for the hard work both parties have put in over the face of this investigation and for the changes in the Competition Act that are being lobbied hard for. What is missing here is restitution back for consumers and a means of levying heavier fines in the wake of the money that these companies garnered at the consumer expense. It’s going to be a long road back for some of these companies to earn consumer trust. These charges show that consumers didn't get value for their money.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Err on the side of caution…
Interruption possible to most fuel products
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 11, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are starting to get used to the idea that pump prices are changing on a weekly basis almost every Wednesday now, and they may be right.
The numbers are close to those required for the use of the interruption formula so, the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is warning of a possible increase at the pumps tonight as they believe that the criteria has been met for the use of the interruption formula to bump up pump prices by a possible five cents a litre.
“Six days out of seven needed are showing a move upwards by 4.4 cents per litre plus taxes and that works out to a plug nickel at the gas pumps but the problem here is that we simply just don’t have that seventh day of data needed to nail this one down,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Heating and stove oils do not show the need for any price adjustments this week although it would not surprise me that they would go up in spite of my numbers. Here’s still a days piece of data that is missing and the numbers are close there.
Home retrofit program on the way
According to Mr. Tom Marshall on an Open Line show on Monday night, government is working on getting a home retrofit program put in place this year in the face of higher energy costs.
”While this might be seen as a good thing, it’s my belief that such a retrofit program should entail government help for those who want financial help in converting their heating systems from oil-based sources back to electricity. While electricity may be also based on demand, government has the ability through legislation, to prevent any spikes in electricity charges that may be passed on through Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and that’s the beauty about owning the corporation. It belongs to the taxpayer of the province and we can call the shot on what costs that Hydro can absorb rather than pass down to the consumer.
Traders’ emphasis on distillates could mean more trouble
Heating and stove oil users can now be warned that, according to one news story from the markets this week, that special emphasis is now being placed on the distillate group of fuels as diesel and jet fuels have now become more predominantly used over gasoline worldwide. That means that heavier investment in diesel will be likely and that should be enough to support higher prices for any distillates for the foreseeable future. “There is a steady demand for distillates as both a transportation fuel and a heating source in the northeast of the continent and most of Europe and that means that consumers are more susceptible to higher price swings. This week alone, distillate fuels traded upwards by eight per cent and that’s for July delivery,” said Murphy.
New refinery on the way - but not for Newfoundland and Labrador
If you had your way, would you allow Canadian crude oil to go south of the border to be refined in South Dakota? Apparently, someone has…
Voters in Elk Point, South Dakota have given approval to rezoning for the construction of a refinery for Hyperion Resources that will, according to the Associated Press new story “process thick Canadian crude oil” at a rate of 400,000 barrels per day. Construction of the refinery is set to begin in 2010 and last for four years, bringing with it 1800 permanent jobs and 4800 jobs during construction.
“Why is it that we have to allow our crude to go south of the border for processing? What’s the matter with this country, that we can’t process our products here and ship the excess to customers in the United States if they want the product? Is it that easy to construct a refinery there instead of here? The Canadian government needs to do more for the consumer in this country like support the processing of our own resources in this country rather than help support the US economy. The Newfoundland and Labrador Government also needs to ensure that none of our offshore resources leaves our waters without secondary processing."
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Interruption possible to most fuel products
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, June 11, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are starting to get used to the idea that pump prices are changing on a weekly basis almost every Wednesday now, and they may be right.
The numbers are close to those required for the use of the interruption formula so, the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is warning of a possible increase at the pumps tonight as they believe that the criteria has been met for the use of the interruption formula to bump up pump prices by a possible five cents a litre.
“Six days out of seven needed are showing a move upwards by 4.4 cents per litre plus taxes and that works out to a plug nickel at the gas pumps but the problem here is that we simply just don’t have that seventh day of data needed to nail this one down,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Heating and stove oils do not show the need for any price adjustments this week although it would not surprise me that they would go up in spite of my numbers. Here’s still a days piece of data that is missing and the numbers are close there.
Home retrofit program on the way
According to Mr. Tom Marshall on an Open Line show on Monday night, government is working on getting a home retrofit program put in place this year in the face of higher energy costs.
”While this might be seen as a good thing, it’s my belief that such a retrofit program should entail government help for those who want financial help in converting their heating systems from oil-based sources back to electricity. While electricity may be also based on demand, government has the ability through legislation, to prevent any spikes in electricity charges that may be passed on through Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and that’s the beauty about owning the corporation. It belongs to the taxpayer of the province and we can call the shot on what costs that Hydro can absorb rather than pass down to the consumer.
Traders’ emphasis on distillates could mean more trouble
Heating and stove oil users can now be warned that, according to one news story from the markets this week, that special emphasis is now being placed on the distillate group of fuels as diesel and jet fuels have now become more predominantly used over gasoline worldwide. That means that heavier investment in diesel will be likely and that should be enough to support higher prices for any distillates for the foreseeable future. “There is a steady demand for distillates as both a transportation fuel and a heating source in the northeast of the continent and most of Europe and that means that consumers are more susceptible to higher price swings. This week alone, distillate fuels traded upwards by eight per cent and that’s for July delivery,” said Murphy.
New refinery on the way - but not for Newfoundland and Labrador
If you had your way, would you allow Canadian crude oil to go south of the border to be refined in South Dakota? Apparently, someone has…
Voters in Elk Point, South Dakota have given approval to rezoning for the construction of a refinery for Hyperion Resources that will, according to the Associated Press new story “process thick Canadian crude oil” at a rate of 400,000 barrels per day. Construction of the refinery is set to begin in 2010 and last for four years, bringing with it 1800 permanent jobs and 4800 jobs during construction.
“Why is it that we have to allow our crude to go south of the border for processing? What’s the matter with this country, that we can’t process our products here and ship the excess to customers in the United States if they want the product? Is it that easy to construct a refinery there instead of here? The Canadian government needs to do more for the consumer in this country like support the processing of our own resources in this country rather than help support the US economy. The Newfoundland and Labrador Government also needs to ensure that none of our offshore resources leaves our waters without secondary processing."
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Monday, June 09, 2008
Note to readers:
This a formal letter to the United States Securities and exchange Commission asking the Commission to look into possible wrong-doings during last weeks $11.00 run-up in the price os crude oil. Remember that oil also traded up by $5 the day previously...
United States Securities and Exchange Commission
Division of Enforcement
Dear sir or Madam;
I am writing to you today to formally ask you to look into the latest market trading days as I believe that there may have been some wrongdoing on the investment front as it pertains to oil-related trading.
During the past few weeks, consumers in the United States and other jurisdictions including Canada, have all been led to believe that oil is trading on a fair and equitable basis and trading is based on the actualities that occur day to day.
While trading may occur on a speculative note, the actions of the markets the past few months, in particularly the past few days of trading, far excess what the market is actually worth and what the actual cost of oil should be. I believe that there may have been an attempt to reap huge gains from oil trading in the last few days, particularly on June 05, 2008 and June 06, 2008 inclusive.
I am asking that the Securities and Exchange Commission, on behalf of all consumers of petroleum products, investigate the following items for your consideration, namely;
1) Was there a case of insider trading before the release of pertinent market information that was used by traders to bargain on the speculative news events of the day, namely a prediction of $150 per barrel oil that was made by analysts at Morgan Stanley?
2) Was there any collusion between traders and investment firms that resulted in a $10.75 per barrel increase in crude oil and related commodity prices?
3) While the markets traded on the basis of a said inventory gain on the Wednesday previous to gasoline and distillate inventories, did traders and investment firms manufacture news items that would have led to a high level of speculative increases to oil and its related commodity pricing?
While trading may occur on a speculative nature, it is highly unusual for markets to trade on news that is already considered to be an “ongoing issue” in terms of newsworthy stories that may affect them. On Thursday and Friday, the markets already were trading on an imminent attack by Israel upon Iranian nuclear facilities. If, in fact, war was to break out in the Middle East as some fear, then why is it that the markets traded downwards on January 17, 1991 at the start of the last Persian Gulf War? Oil, in fact, traded down that day by $10.56 U.S a barrel in spite of attacks against Israel and disruptions in oil exports from Iraq.
As regards to the “news” from the research paper by analysts at Morgan Stanley, they are basing their figures on a presumption of no drop in demand where, in fact, the United States Energy Information Administration has found a 1.4% drop in consumer demand, contrary to the Morgan Stanley forecast.
I am asking the Commission to formally investigate the three above points on behalf of consumers in North America and I look forward to your response.
With best regards,
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
This a formal letter to the United States Securities and exchange Commission asking the Commission to look into possible wrong-doings during last weeks $11.00 run-up in the price os crude oil. Remember that oil also traded up by $5 the day previously...
United States Securities and Exchange Commission
Division of Enforcement
Dear sir or Madam;
I am writing to you today to formally ask you to look into the latest market trading days as I believe that there may have been some wrongdoing on the investment front as it pertains to oil-related trading.
During the past few weeks, consumers in the United States and other jurisdictions including Canada, have all been led to believe that oil is trading on a fair and equitable basis and trading is based on the actualities that occur day to day.
While trading may occur on a speculative note, the actions of the markets the past few months, in particularly the past few days of trading, far excess what the market is actually worth and what the actual cost of oil should be. I believe that there may have been an attempt to reap huge gains from oil trading in the last few days, particularly on June 05, 2008 and June 06, 2008 inclusive.
I am asking that the Securities and Exchange Commission, on behalf of all consumers of petroleum products, investigate the following items for your consideration, namely;
1) Was there a case of insider trading before the release of pertinent market information that was used by traders to bargain on the speculative news events of the day, namely a prediction of $150 per barrel oil that was made by analysts at Morgan Stanley?
2) Was there any collusion between traders and investment firms that resulted in a $10.75 per barrel increase in crude oil and related commodity prices?
3) While the markets traded on the basis of a said inventory gain on the Wednesday previous to gasoline and distillate inventories, did traders and investment firms manufacture news items that would have led to a high level of speculative increases to oil and its related commodity pricing?
While trading may occur on a speculative nature, it is highly unusual for markets to trade on news that is already considered to be an “ongoing issue” in terms of newsworthy stories that may affect them. On Thursday and Friday, the markets already were trading on an imminent attack by Israel upon Iranian nuclear facilities. If, in fact, war was to break out in the Middle East as some fear, then why is it that the markets traded downwards on January 17, 1991 at the start of the last Persian Gulf War? Oil, in fact, traded down that day by $10.56 U.S a barrel in spite of attacks against Israel and disruptions in oil exports from Iraq.
As regards to the “news” from the research paper by analysts at Morgan Stanley, they are basing their figures on a presumption of no drop in demand where, in fact, the United States Energy Information Administration has found a 1.4% drop in consumer demand, contrary to the Morgan Stanley forecast.
I am asking the Commission to formally investigate the three above points on behalf of consumers in North America and I look forward to your response.
With best regards,
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
No relief at the pumps
Consumers will see price at the pumps exceed $1.42 a litre
Media release
“Consumers in
“Consumers will see an added 3.8 cents a litre on gasoline and we’re still looking at heating and stove oils to take an upwards move by close to 2.4 cents a litre. That number may also be pointing the way to a possible increase in diesel as well. Those numbers are based on twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen days available as of release time. An increase to heating and stove oils will mean a new price record for consumers with almost $1.22 charged by some companies in the
“Well, here we go again! We are looking at
“Ask yourself ‘why not’ when you hear that Venezuelans are paying twelve cents a US gallon for gasoline. Why should Canadians be made to pay the piper for gasoline, heating and stove oils or choose between heat or food this coming winter?
“We’re seeing the ‘same old-same old’ in the markets again the past two weeks; Concerns for supply from places like
“It may now be June month and we have very little time left before we see the markets start trading on the August buying contract. A lot has to happen to heating and stove oils before we see any drop in pricing there but, so far this summer, fall heating and stove oil pricing are only pointing one way; up.”
-30-
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Stove and heating to take a beating…
Numbers show possible increase coming to heating and stove oils
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, May 28, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a possible increase to heating and stove oils this Thursday as numbers seem to show that the Petroleum Pricing Office may have to use the interrupter formula.
“Six days of a possible seven days data shows a possible upwards movement of 4.4 cents a litre, just 4/10ths over the requirement for the use of the interrupter formula. I don’t believe that, in spite of the drop in oil yesterday, that distillate prices dropped enough to prevent the use of the formula so, it looks like consumers here may be hit,” said George Murphy, of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Gasoline numbers are showing an added 3.5 cents a litre, not inclusive of taxes, so, according to the rules, that fuel is not susceptible to a price change tonite. However, I will be going to the pumps in case their numbers were a little more volatile than my own in this case. It’s only by a half cent and I really need that last days data to make the more accurate prediction. That day’s data won’t be available to me until after Thursday’s price move- IF it happens. I’d rather err on the side of caution personally. In the event there is no move in pricing on Thursday then consumers will most likely get tagged next Thursday at the regular price change time.
" What should sicken people is the simple fact that, if this price change holds true, it will be happening at a time when the trend traditionally shows downwards in the summer non-demand season for heating and stove oils. People should realy be worried over their heating expenses this coming winter if this keeps up. Heavy investment is beginning to lead to a collapse in the need for heating and stove oil product. Investment is actually going to kill the distillate market by making this product unaffordable to most consumers in North America. Are they pricing Canadian and US consumers out just to send the product overseas to the more lucritive European and Aian markets?
"Are we easterners going to be left freezing in the dark?
“Continued heavy demand by investors in commodities like gasoline and distillates again are playing heavy into the markets this past week and there was some added pressure on gasoline as well with the final run-up to the US Memorial Day holiday. What we keep hearing out there is the fact that all this high price jargon continues to make for an artificially-supported price and there is simply no justification in numbers that we see here that they should be this high. This is a bubble that is soon to break and bring investors to the short end of the stick. At least, here's hoping!”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices My email: gasprices@hotmail.com
Numbers show possible increase coming to heating and stove oils
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, May 28, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a possible increase to heating and stove oils this Thursday as numbers seem to show that the Petroleum Pricing Office may have to use the interrupter formula.
“Six days of a possible seven days data shows a possible upwards movement of 4.4 cents a litre, just 4/10ths over the requirement for the use of the interrupter formula. I don’t believe that, in spite of the drop in oil yesterday, that distillate prices dropped enough to prevent the use of the formula so, it looks like consumers here may be hit,” said George Murphy, of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Gasoline numbers are showing an added 3.5 cents a litre, not inclusive of taxes, so, according to the rules, that fuel is not susceptible to a price change tonite. However, I will be going to the pumps in case their numbers were a little more volatile than my own in this case. It’s only by a half cent and I really need that last days data to make the more accurate prediction. That day’s data won’t be available to me until after Thursday’s price move- IF it happens. I’d rather err on the side of caution personally. In the event there is no move in pricing on Thursday then consumers will most likely get tagged next Thursday at the regular price change time.
" What should sicken people is the simple fact that, if this price change holds true, it will be happening at a time when the trend traditionally shows downwards in the summer non-demand season for heating and stove oils. People should realy be worried over their heating expenses this coming winter if this keeps up. Heavy investment is beginning to lead to a collapse in the need for heating and stove oil product. Investment is actually going to kill the distillate market by making this product unaffordable to most consumers in North America. Are they pricing Canadian and US consumers out just to send the product overseas to the more lucritive European and Aian markets?
"Are we easterners going to be left freezing in the dark?
“Continued heavy demand by investors in commodities like gasoline and distillates again are playing heavy into the markets this past week and there was some added pressure on gasoline as well with the final run-up to the US Memorial Day holiday. What we keep hearing out there is the fact that all this high price jargon continues to make for an artificially-supported price and there is simply no justification in numbers that we see here that they should be this high. This is a bubble that is soon to break and bring investors to the short end of the stick. At least, here's hoping!”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices My email: gasprices@hotmail.com
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Ottawa won’t help ease pressure on consumers
Says there’s nothing they can do
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, May 22, 2008 – Consumers in Canada and in Newfoundland and Labrador will have to face the uphill costs of oil pricing without any help from Ottawa even though they have the means to do it, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“We’ve long asked the province as well as Ottawa, to help consumers in this province as well as the rest of the country, address the higher costs of energy that includes everything from heating and stove oils, natural gas and transportation fuels and both Ottawa and the province have, as yet to respond outside of the province passing heating rebates. According to some news stories, they have quoted the Prime Minister as saying that ‘Ottawa can do nothing’ to help the consumer and that ‘we can’t go out and spend like drunken sailors’.
“I beg to differ with the Prime Minister on these points as we have suggested several steps over the years that have gone ignored by his office and that of the natural resources minister, Gary Lunn. What we have found out is that the Prime Minister should have said ‘We are not willing to do anything about escalating oil prices and high prices to consumers’.
“Over the years, we have suggested cuts in transportation taxes, the dropping of the GST/HST off all forms of heat, and a system of inventory reporting to make Big Oil accountable for the energy resources it exports and reports in this country. All these calls have gone unanswered by the Prime Minister’s office and the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Perhaps the Prime Minister should call a First Minister’s meeting at his behest and prove that he can co-operate with the provinces and try to reach a consensus on dropping some of the taxation components on transportation fuels.
“What should bug consumers in this country is the simple fact that, rather than do nothing, the federal and provincial governments should be seen to be doing something. To me, it shows weak leadership when consumers in this country are looking for help but they can’t get it. Ottawa and the provinces should be working closely together on this issue for consumers but they're not. So much for federal-provincial relations!
“Our tourism and transportation, forestry and fishing sectors are all in trouble with a high dollar and we still have to deal with the governments OPEC dependency; a country such as ours, loaded with oil resources, and we’re still importing from OPEC members. Break the OPEC dependency, for one.
“We’ve suggested everything else from a moratorium on refinery closures, new competition rules that would outlaw the ‘reciprocal sales agreements’ between oil companies and investments in hydro projects like the new Churchill Falls development, but all calls have gone unheeded. While this federal government is in power, it’s going to be harder still to show the rest of Canadians that it can lead on consumer issues. On the energy cost issue and the high price of oil, right now it’s not showing much imagination to guard Canadians from the future. Right now, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not standing on guard for thee and Canadians should be disappointed with his cavalier attitude on energy pricing issues.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Last weeks miss is this weeks hit…
Consumers will see price increase to gasoline this Thursday
Media release
Conception Bay South, May 20, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will face the inevitable this coming Thursday morning when they will experience another increase at the pumps.
What consumers will see
“Consumers barely dodged the increase last week. Numbers were so close that they fell within the margin of error that I work with and that’s why we made a price increase warning. This week, there is no mistaking that there is going to be an increase at the regular price setting. Numbers are still falling close to what we had last week, of 3.9 or 4.0 cents per litre up at the pumps. That’s with twelve days reporting out of a possible 14 needed to get the final numbers.
“Heating and stove oils are showing an added 65/100ths of a cent up and that may be pointing the way of diesel fuels as well. We’re still not seeing the substantial drop in distillate prices in the non-demand season as in other years and that should be very concerning for those using distillates for winter heating sources.
Why prices will be going up
“Market volatility is still playing heavy in the markets this last two weeks. Heavy trading in commodities against a lower U.S dollar continues to be a factor in oil and its related refined commodities. Distillates, as of last week, are still showing an increase in demand over the same timeframe last year, of close to one per cent. Of course, we still have the same geo-political conditions still playing themselves out in the markets as well and that’s besides the various disruptions and threats to supply. While refiner capacity increased last week, low reported profit margins are not enticing refiners to get back into the production of gasoline while gasoline itself, shows a drop in consumer demand by .2 per cent ahead of the traditional start of the US summer driving season. The big news this week however, is that heating and stove oils continue to show an increase in price while we enter the non-demand season and this should be a worry to those users of fuels for the coming winter. If we don’t start to see a drop in demand numbers there along with a corresponding drop in spot prices, we are going to be in big trouble.
Some changes made to the Gas and Oil Update
We have made some changes that will make it easier for consumers to obtain our information. Consumers only have to go to www.gasandoil.blogspot.com and use the subscribe option to get the ‘Heating and Gasoline Update’ delivered to their inbox. I found that it was simply too hard to get everyone to send you an email back when their email address had changed. This will make it easier to do the administration of good versus bad email addresses that has long been a problem. I hope that the consumers of the province avail of the service as it is a free service to consumers.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Consumers will see price increase to gasoline this Thursday
Media release
Conception Bay South, May 20, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will face the inevitable this coming Thursday morning when they will experience another increase at the pumps.
What consumers will see
“Consumers barely dodged the increase last week. Numbers were so close that they fell within the margin of error that I work with and that’s why we made a price increase warning. This week, there is no mistaking that there is going to be an increase at the regular price setting. Numbers are still falling close to what we had last week, of 3.9 or 4.0 cents per litre up at the pumps. That’s with twelve days reporting out of a possible 14 needed to get the final numbers.
“Heating and stove oils are showing an added 65/100ths of a cent up and that may be pointing the way of diesel fuels as well. We’re still not seeing the substantial drop in distillate prices in the non-demand season as in other years and that should be very concerning for those using distillates for winter heating sources.
Why prices will be going up
“Market volatility is still playing heavy in the markets this last two weeks. Heavy trading in commodities against a lower U.S dollar continues to be a factor in oil and its related refined commodities. Distillates, as of last week, are still showing an increase in demand over the same timeframe last year, of close to one per cent. Of course, we still have the same geo-political conditions still playing themselves out in the markets as well and that’s besides the various disruptions and threats to supply. While refiner capacity increased last week, low reported profit margins are not enticing refiners to get back into the production of gasoline while gasoline itself, shows a drop in consumer demand by .2 per cent ahead of the traditional start of the US summer driving season. The big news this week however, is that heating and stove oils continue to show an increase in price while we enter the non-demand season and this should be a worry to those users of fuels for the coming winter. If we don’t start to see a drop in demand numbers there along with a corresponding drop in spot prices, we are going to be in big trouble.
Some changes made to the Gas and Oil Update
We have made some changes that will make it easier for consumers to obtain our information. Consumers only have to go to www.gasandoil.blogspot.com and use the subscribe option to get the ‘Heating and Gasoline Update’ delivered to their inbox. I found that it was simply too hard to get everyone to send you an email back when their email address had changed. This will make it easier to do the administration of good versus bad email addresses that has long been a problem. I hope that the consumers of the province avail of the service as it is a free service to consumers.
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Thursday, May 15, 2008
How it all worked out...
I guess by the time you all drop in on this note, you will have already heard where the numbers went; mostly up. I guess we dodged a bullet when gas didn't move as I thought it would, but how close was it in the end?
From my media friends at VOCM, I got details of the hit on heating and stove oils and, as it turns out, with seven days now reporting here, I was out by something in the order of 3/100ths of a cent. My final number aloowed for an increase of 7.71 cents. That means that the decrease we all got from the removal of "jet" from the summer mix, was eradicated in one stroke of the pen.
What's worse is that our fishers and transportation sectors got the perverbial kick in the teeth overnight with an allowable 9.2 cents a litre increase to diesel pricing. That's why I say in my releases whenever I talk about the heating/stove oil numbers that "the number may also be pointing the way that diesel will also be going", in this case, UP...
Gas was a little different as the volitility of the markets got to me on this fuel.In the end I had an allowable of 4.1 cents a litre, if you include taxation, or 3.6 without the tax component. The interrupter works on the basis of a four cent a litre movement up or down as measured over seven days.
I usually call my shot with five days reporting so everyone can be a step ahead, particularly when it comes to heating and stove oils and to give the media a chance to report and get the word out to everyone...
My margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent and, with the volitility I figured that I would get the word out on a chance increase in case I might be off just a little; in this case by that extra 1/10th of a cent that would have moved my numbers up to four cents even on gasoline. Guess I "missed it by that much".
Hence, we dodge a bullet for this week with pricing for gasoline still on track for a possible 3.6 cent a litre plus taxes increase coming for next week at the regular setting of prices.
I just hope no one was inconvenienced by my call on this one.
Oh well, it's off to bed and call Randy Simms in the morning!
Sometimes, a tenth of a cent can ruin you...lol
Regards,
George Murphy
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Another kick in the personal economic teeth
Numbers warrant an increase to heating/stove oils…Again
News release
Conception Bay South, NL, May 13, 2008- Unless divine intervention sets into the markets this week, and soon, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience the biggest weekly hike in heating and stove oil pricing that they have ever seen for this time of the year.
“Numbers for heating and stove oils show an allowable 7.4 cent a litre increase coming this Thursday morning as these numbers fall well within the guidelines set for early interruption of pricing, that’s also with five days out of a possible seven days of data needed for interruption to occur. Being a part of the distillate group, there is a possibility that diesel may also get hit.
“Gasoline now is showing an allowable of 3.5 cents a litre but, the way those numbers have been going as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me if pricing did move early. Those numbers are just outside of the guides for interruption but, just by a minimum. There is still a slight chance that they won’t albeit; I’m still hitting the pumps myself on Wednesday night.
“Continued heavy investment in commodities ahead of the dropping US dollar, supply disruptions and the continuing geo-political situation are to blame as they always have been. I just find it incredible that heating and stove oil pricing will increase again, all during the non-demand season. Right now, I am looking at a 95.00 cent a litre cost price where there was a 55.00 cent a litre cost last year for this time period. It’s early but there are the signs of big trouble on the heating and stove oil fronts this winter coming.”
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For more information, please contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Numbers warrant an increase to heating/stove oils…Again
News release
Conception Bay South, NL, May 13, 2008- Unless divine intervention sets into the markets this week, and soon, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience the biggest weekly hike in heating and stove oil pricing that they have ever seen for this time of the year.
“Numbers for heating and stove oils show an allowable 7.4 cent a litre increase coming this Thursday morning as these numbers fall well within the guidelines set for early interruption of pricing, that’s also with five days out of a possible seven days of data needed for interruption to occur. Being a part of the distillate group, there is a possibility that diesel may also get hit.
“Gasoline now is showing an allowable of 3.5 cents a litre but, the way those numbers have been going as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me if pricing did move early. Those numbers are just outside of the guides for interruption but, just by a minimum. There is still a slight chance that they won’t albeit; I’m still hitting the pumps myself on Wednesday night.
“Continued heavy investment in commodities ahead of the dropping US dollar, supply disruptions and the continuing geo-political situation are to blame as they always have been. I just find it incredible that heating and stove oil pricing will increase again, all during the non-demand season. Right now, I am looking at a 95.00 cent a litre cost price where there was a 55.00 cent a litre cost last year for this time period. It’s early but there are the signs of big trouble on the heating and stove oil fronts this winter coming.”
-30-
For more information, please contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
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