As predicted, inventories are up again

The latest petroleum status report is out from the US Energy Information Administration and it seems to confirm the suspicions of inventory building again.

The report here seems to confirm also that there's more than enough increase in overall supply and that there's no reason why prices should stay elevated like they are. But an official from MF Global, vice president Michael Fitzpatrick, seems to think we're into a downturn now and predicts that we'll see oil slide to $70 US a barrel before July 4th.

All the fundamentals, excess supply in the markets, stagnant demand numbers and ongoing economic and fiscal worries in Europe, and we still aren't seeing a drop of significance to oil prices NOW rather than LATER.

Why is that?

George

Numbers up, but for how long?
Markets could be on the verge of another collapse

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 27, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some slight upwards movement in prices this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers are up slightly this week, all due to the three dollar a barrel increase in crude prices, that is, up until yesterday’s sudden drop. Numbers show that heating and stove oils could increase by 6/10ths of a cent, gasoline should increase by 1.8 cents a litre and diesel, also up by 7/10ths of a cent a litre,” Murphy said.

Europe faces tough financial crisis
“If there is good news in the markets against prices increasing further, you need not look further than the ongoing fiscal situation developing in Europe with Greece’s fiscal problems. Portugal and Spain are also dealing with a high debt-load and are both being forced to take some tough austerity measures to help support their end of the Euro. In the meantime, both Greece (BB+ from a BBB+ rating) and Portugal (A- from A+ rating) have both had their country’s credit ratings reduced and that led to a drop in the Euro against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar also lost ground against the US greenback. Equities also took a pounding yesterday and that spells trouble as the European Union tries to manage its members debt-loads.

“These tough financial times in Europe and Portugal have presented the people there with the possibility of hard times to come and the markets see that as a future sign of dropping demand for petroleum products as consumers cut back. Those problems, along with rising interest rates and increasing worldwide crude oil inventories, spell further trouble for crude oil in the weeks to come. The austerity measures these countries will have to take will, no doubt, be harsh on consumers there.”

Tidbits
• According to an industry petroleum report, inventories of crude oil probably increased by as much as 5.3 million barrels, extending increases for the last few weeks. The US Energy Information Administration releases its report Wednesday. If that also shows an increase, look for the slide to continue.


Iran using more tankers for storage (Bloomberg)
• “In a further sign of crude oil troubles, Iran added three more super-tankers to the fleet now being used for storage purposes. The number of tankers now being used now matches the same number they used when crude oil prices collapsed in 2008. Iran now has sixteen tankers used for storage out of a fleet of twenty eight, each being rented for that purpose at a cost of close to $47,000.00 US per day.”

IEA says $85 US oil will damage recovery efforts. (Edmonton Journal)
• “It’s something I have always said all along, that high prices for oil will hurt the consumer and hinder any economic recovery, but now we’re hearing it from the International Energy Agency. Now, the IEA says that anything upwards of $70 US to $85 US will hinder, if not harm, any ongoing economic recovery efforts. While the royalty numbers might look good on the provinces treasury, consumers are beginning to hurt. High prices for oil also bring with it the specter of the possibility of surcharges again and we're also dealing with artificially high inflation to prices caused by increased transportation costs.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
gasprices@hotmail.com

Not much change in prices expected this week
Will an Icelandic volcano engineer a price collapse?

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 20, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will not see any big changes in fuel prices this week when the PUB adjusts prices this Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“All the numbers are down, but by tenths of a cent in all cases. I expect a drop of two tenths to heating and stove oils, down by four tenths to gasoline and a drop of a half cent to diesel prices,” Murphy said.

Distillate prices to collapse
Consumers could see the beneficial effect of a volcano in the markets, but the oil company Vitol, according to a Bloomberg news story, is trying to prevent a break to consumers at the same time. The longer the volcano spews ash and cancels flights, the more likely a collapse in prices. However, while jet fuel inventories have increased because of cancelled flights in the volcano cloud regions of Europe, Vitol is attempting to store its jet fuel in a tanker until jet fuel demand increases, and when the cloud of volcanic dust dissipates.
“The last time we saw a drop in demand of jet fuel was immediately after the attacks of 9-11 and that saw a drop in consumer demand for jet fuel and other distillates that brought down prices to consumers. Back then, refined product was still flowing freely in the markets. This time, things are different with Vitol artificially removing jet fuel from the markets just to manipulate the price and prevent its collapse. Jet fuel is also an important winter fuel for the winter heating blend in Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as other cold climates. What we have here is a company willingly manipulating the market conditions to help support the price simply by leaving this product in storage.

The newswires are alive with the sound of the airlines complaining about being in a ‘no fly’ situation, but how much of that hue and cry is also being influenced by Big Oil? Is Big Oil influencing government ‘no fly’ restrictions in order to prevent the collapse of prices? In return, are passengers being put in danger by the airlines and Big Oil’s pressure to return to the skies?”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Numbers show "down" but not by much

With all the data in for this pricing session, here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of 37/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows down by 7/10ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 9/10ths coming.

Sorry I don't have a lot of news from this side of things. It's been a busy week on this end with other issues popping up and a lot of work besides!

I am also still trying to find sources other than my own pertaining to last week's price change that might show why I was so "off" with the change at the gas pumps. I had upwards movement, but not as substantial as that of the PUB. When I find that info, I'll try to get it to you.

The rest of the numbers came close to perfect, however.

I also have been inundated with emails from the readers out there about the changes to consumer product weights and the prices being charged. I'll have a little more on that topic later the week as I have a little more research to be done. It has become plainly obvious however, that consumers are being hurt by the business practice of "product downsizing".

I'll be back again with more oil news next time, I promise!

Regards,

George Murphy

Just a little about "Food"

Did you notice?

Betcha didn't...

Out on my rounds this weekend when yours truly decided to stop into one of my favorite corner stores for a plain, ordinary bag of chips and I thought it passing as strange that the bag I bought looked a little smaller than usual.

It was...

Hostess chips and Humpty Dumpty cheezies dropped the last couple of weeks from 85 gram bag sizes to 65 grams. The price of the product stayed the same.$1.29 a bag.

Kit Kat bars are five grams less and still sell for the same price.

Not important to you maybe, but how about this one? Did you notice that some loaves of bread out there on the shelves are smaller? Apparently, Weston's breads downsized their loaves by three or four slices.

I'm told that the rest of the bread manufacturers have done the same thing.

In the mood for ice cream?

Brookfield Ice Creams have dropped in size from a two litre to a 1.65 litre size but still maintained their same price.

See?...

There is no inflation whenever Stats Canada takes their measurement because they only track price, not the weight of the product. If something like a bag of chips can lose 20% of its weight, are we not in fact paying twenty per cent more to get the same amount of product?

Inflation comes in many forms. How many people are going hungry as a result of changes in weights to healthy foods?

Next thing you'll hear about is Big Oil adjusting temperature compensation because of global warning!

In the meantime, I'll have an update on where fuel prices are so far this session just as soon as I have tonights figures.

Regards,

George Murphy

Numbers are up on all fronts
Consumers to see increases to all fuels

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 06, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a substantial increase, the first in weeks, when the fuel regulator sets prices this coming Thursday morning, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What’s in the numbers?
“After the latest run-up in crude oil and refined product prices, we will see an increase to all fuel prices I measure. Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.54 cents a litre on the way, while diesel shows an added 3.1 cents per litre. Gasoline prices will also take a hit, increasing there by 2.2 cents a litre,” said Murphy.

“The recent rise in the Canadian dollar has insulated us somewhat from this price setting round. If we had been dealing with last years Canuck Buck, we could be talking about an added 11 cents per litre on gasoline. US consumers are looking at a fourteen cent a gallon increase as it stands now for the last week’s performance in the markets.

Trouble ahead
“Some of this data is starting to suggest future trouble for some consumers. We’re looking at an increase in distillate prices that means an elevated price for heating and stove oil product when, traditionally; prices have been declining at this time of year. Will we see the possibility of fuel surcharges coming to play into consumers pocketbooks through increased airline fuel surcharges and another possible adjustment to Marine Atlantic ferry rates as a result of the meteoric rise in crude oil and refined product prices? While the numbers to substantiate any increase may not be there now, there is a guarantee of increases in fuel surcharges to consumers as the rising cost of crude becomes a factor. Consumers may see some relief in the coming weeks if petroleum pricing becomes a pocketbook issue but right now, the market has momentum that seems to suggest a July, 2008 repeat. The collapse of oil prices could be close at hand again.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher

All numbers will be up this week

but is a collapse in oil prices close at hand?

Six days out of seven reporting are showing a jump in fuel prices to come this Thursday. They will be up over what I'm showing here, if all holds well in the oil markets tomorrow as well...

If they are, you can be sure that all these numbers could go up at least another half cent from what I'm showing.

Here's a run-down on what I have so far this regulation period:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 2.45 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 3.1 cents, and...
• Gasoline is up by two cents a litre.

from last weeks upwards climb of three bucks a barrel, I guess it could be worse. The Canadian dollar is becoming an important factor in insulating consumers here in getting tagged with added increases. If this were the same time-frame from last year, it very well could be that, just for gas prices alone, we could be dealing with an added 11 cents a litre upwards.

That would have been a shocker on that fact alone. US consumers are looking at an added fourteen cents a litre at the pumps over this last week!

In the meantime, days are limited for oil to keep climbing. At least that's my opinion on the situation. Just how long can oil go up before high refined prices start to affect consumer spending?

My belief is "Not long".

I'll have an official release on all seven days activity late tomorrow night but keep your ears to the ground for talk from the consumer perspective, on how high prices are beginning to affect their spending. That's when the large oil sell-off could begin.

More tomorrow night, as I've said...

Regards for now,

George

Minor adjustments to pricing this Thursday
And more budget thoughts

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 30, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will again see some slight changes to fuel pricing this Thursday when the PUB adjusts prices based on the market’s last week of activity. That’s from George Murphy, researcher for the group.

What to expect with prices
“I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 28/100ths of a cent, diesel to decrease by two tenths and gasoline to decrease by 8/10ths of a cent. All this comes with oil increasing to $82 US a barrel. The last time we saw this amount for a barrel of crude was back on October 12, 2008 when oil dropped to $81.19 US a barrel, just shortly after the July slide. Oil climbed to a record of $147.23 on July 7th of that year. The big difference was that the Canadian dollar was measured at $1.19 against the US greenback. Consumers have saved about four cents a litre simply on the dollar difference.

State of flux
“Again this week, the markets are in a state of flux as they seem to be waiting for something substantial to happen. In spite of the positive economic news coming from the US, it’s like they’re waiting for something to build on before any other investment in the markets occurs. I believe that they’re fearful of a deepening financial crisis coming from Europe, in spite of some success met by Greece this past week in securing finances,” Murphy said.

“A huge build in crude oil inventories is another reason why the markets are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to crude oil prices. A strong sign of waning demand for raw crude product is playing heavily into the markets. Another substantial build in inventories of raw product this week may be enough to send investors for cover in the interim until extra supplies are used up. That may very well take some time as production and rig counts have increased in recent weeks. The industry seems to be gearing itself up for another fall if the counts go up hand in hand with inventory building. Add to this the fact that refinery capacity also picked up for the last two weeks now and we have something troubling to the investor. All will hinge on an increase in consumer demand.

Provincial budget
“While it was a good budget, the province could have instituted a different tax cut that would have covered all individuals. Instead of the cut they gave to middle and upper class residents, they had the chance to offer some taxation relief to consumers and business in the form of tax cuts to all forms of heat and some relief to consumers from transportation taxes. The transportation sector would have welcomed the gas tax relief and it would have aided the export industries here that are fighting the uphill battle of a high Canadian dollar.
The relief from taxation levels on heat would have been all-encompassing and would have depended on your usage. Everyone would have been included in this measure and you would have saved in concert with your consumption. A complete removal of the provincial portion of the HST would also have taken government out of the consumers pocket and put disposable income back into the hands of the people that needed it most.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Numbers so far...

And a little on the budget...

Here's what I have so far for this pricing session, and also a little on what I think about the budget; not that my opinion will change it!...

Six days out of seven at hand and here is what I have:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 14/100ths of a cent.


• Diesel shows 3/10ths down, and...


• Gasoline shows 9/10ths down.

I'll have the final numbers tomorrow night, so be looking for that post late in the evening...

Budget reaction

Overall, it's not a bad budget considering the investment of two badly needed schools in the St. John's area and the investment into six new ferries for the south coast of the province, but this round of tax cuts bothers me along with the government projection of an average of $83 bucks a barrel for crude oil.

Here's why...

So far this year, we have been warned about increasing interest rates and some areas of the world still facing an impending financial crunch, both of which will impact consumer spending. Look at the situation with Greece and impending problems with the Euro. The Bank of Canada has already set the Canadian ball rolling on higher interest rates increasing rates by 6 basis points.

Doesn't seem a lot but the warnings are already out there that they'll go nowhere but up from now on. This means that consumers are going to prioritise their spending with increasing interest rates on things like new homes and credit card expenditures, there's going to be a shortfall for some people out there. If they don't spend, the high price of fuel will "enforce" conservation and that will make the price of oil drop.

High prices impacted consumer spending that partially lead to crude oil's price collapse in July, 2008. With a government so heavily dependent on oil revenues, that should be worrisome.

For some reason, I don't think the word "risk" was brought out by anyone. I guess it is now.

Regards,

George

Just a short note:
Don't forget that my margin for error with the numbers is close to three tenths of a cent. With the numbers you see here in the release in this case, there may be no price changes to the fuels I measure when you take that into account!

It’s like the markets are waiting for something
Fuel prices show very little change

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 23, 2010- For the fourth week in a row, consumers can expect to see very little price movement at the pumps this Thursday when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

‘Numbers are showing no great changes for this pricing session. I expect heating and stove oils to decrease by 33/100ths of a cent, gasoline to drop by close on 2/10ths and diesel to increase by 2/10ths of a cent respectively. It’s almost like the markets have been waiting for more substantial news before investors withdraw or invest in the markets. It’s odd,” Murphy said.

“For weeks, the markets have been watching demand stall and crude oil inventories show insignificant builds, while refined commodities have been unsettled as well. One week we find a build in gasoline inventories and the next, a draw-down. The same goes for other fuels I measure. It seems like winter heating oil prices showed the same trend although they did come close to my predicted peak of 82 cents by February, they also stalled, reaching 78.67 cents a litre this past week. While diesel prices are elevated, again they also stalled for the past few weeks.

“Near as I can figure, the economic recovery remains spotty in some markets and there are countries out there that are predicted that will be facing the burden of taxing their consumers to deal with an increasing debt load. Greece is a prime example of what the markets are seeing as a few quirks with the worldwide economic recovery. Match that with weak demand for petroleum products and we have a “wait and see” approach apparent in the markets. While things are status quo for now, the question needs to be asked “just for how long before the bulls enter the markets again?”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Oil holds steady and so will pricing

Not a lot of changes to be expected again this week as oil prices show "steady as she goes" for the time being.

Seems that the markets have taken a wait and see approach to what's happening in far centers before prices again start to climb.

The big news seems to center on how some European countries will be dealing with debt and policies that they will institute before we see any other long term effects to pricing. What they do to consumers in their own countries has played a big part in the stall of oil prices as consumers stand to be hit by any increases in taxation levels in countries like Greece and Italy. Until they deal that blow, it seems that oil will hover right where it's to right now, barring any unforeseen obstacles like OPEC cuts.

To that end, here's what I have so far for this pricing session:

• Heating and stove oils show a decline of 39/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows an added 2/10ths, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 2/10ths of a cent.

Like I said. Nothing disconcerting.

I'll be back tomorrow night with a final run-down on the changes we can expect this Thursday.

Til then!

George

Numbers still pointing down

Hi to all...

Not much change from yesterday's projections I had listed on the blog so, again I won't bother you all with an official news release, just this little emailer!

What you'll see this Thursday morning

All fuels still show a drop coming. Not by much again but they are down.
**Heating and stove oils to drop by 24/100ths of a cent.
**Diesel to drop by a half cent, and...
**Gasoline to drop by 8/10ths.

Some market highlights:

*** The Canadian dollar continues to make gains against the faltering US dollar, reaching $1.0148 at Tuesday noon.
***Some building of crude oil inventories last week an indicator of weak demand.
***The Euro gained ground against the US dollar also this week and that renewed the appeal of commodities like crude oil and it's related, refined products. In spite of that, oil bounced around $82.00 US all this week, with the exception of the March 15th sell-off down to $79.00 US a barrel.
***News from Vienna, Austria indicates that OPEC will keep production figures steady in the interim, unless consumption again falls off, all in spite the latest news that indicates weak demand for oil products. keep an ear to the ground on OPEC as they have been known to change their minds on a moments notice. The news from Vienna later today could be different than what's coming from there right now!

Local heating oil prices remain fluid

Here's a breakdown of heating oil prices in the immediate St. John's area:

Harvey's Oil........78.67/Lt
Irving Oil Ltd.......76.67/Lt
North Atlantic.....76.67/Lt
Ultramar.............76.67/Lt
Chafe's Oil..........76.67/Lt
Esso (Imperial)....76.67/Lt
Skinner's Oil........70.67/Lt
A1 Fuels.............70.00/Lt
Discount Fuels....69.95/Lt

Price difference.....8.72 cents per litre ($89.00 HST included and based on a 900 litre fill-up)

Shopping around for heating oil could prove profitable!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Down, but not by much

As the headline says, the numbers this week are showing down, but just by a little so far this pricing session.

Here's what I have so far, six days out of seven reporting:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of 24/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows a half cent drop, and...
• Gasoline shows 8/10ths of a cent down.

Some highlights:

• The Canadian dollar continues to gain against the US greenback, gaining almost three cents to reach today's $1.0217 in close parity.
• Crude inventories continue to build against what is already stocked south of the border, just another indicator that demand for oil products remains weak.

I'll be back with the final numbers late tomorrow night along with a comparison of local heating oil prices for the immediate St. John's area, so, be in touch to read that!

Regards,

George

Hi to all...

Sorry that this one is posted later than the usual, but I didn't get in until late tonight, a little later than the usual. I hope you all forgive me.

George

Prices on a steady move upwards
Consumers to see another slight increase to prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 10, 2010- some more slight upwards moves in petroleum prices will be the order of the week to consumers again when the PUB adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Again, investors are beginning to speculate on economic recovery, albeit in sporadic fashion, as they try to maximize returns for the future. I expect to see consumers paying slightly more when prices are adjusted upwards this week as a result,” Murphy said.

“Numbers show only a 49/100ths of an increase coming for heating and stove oil prices, and an increase of another penny to both gasoline and diesel fuel prices. It may be another small increase but the last few increases add up to a larger number that is beginning to make an impact on consumers spending. Any increase that becomes measurable like these last few have totaled will shortly begin to impact demand as consumers sense that prices are not staying down. They’ll begin to hold back on other purchases, making an impact on any economic recovery. There are already signs that this is occurring.

Industry report shows increasing crude oil inventory
A report today from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that the US crude oil inventories probably increased by close on 6.5 million barrels. The report comes ahead of the US government Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that is expected to show an additional two million barrels of inventory for last week. “If that is the case, then we can expect to see lower trading in commodities and a corresponding drop in prices in the coming week. We should also see traders making investments in the US dollar rather than the Euro and commodities. It all depends also on the inventory status of refined commodities rather than raw crude,” Murphy said.

Beware the Ides of March
OPEC meets in Vienna next week to discuss its pricing policies and also to discuss production from its member nations. With any sign of a drop in consumer demand, the possibility is there that there could be a production cut in the offing. We’ll find out March 17th if this will be the case. The last thing OPEC will want is to institute a cut though, as it could hinder any economic recovery perceived to be ongoing.

Marine Atlantic receives a budget tidbit-A suggestion
Marine Atlantic received an infusion of funds with the O’Flaherty budget this past week, bringing with it the promise of an update to the service fleet, but is there a possibility that any of the money could be used for another purpose?

“I’m hoping that Marine Atlantic could take some of that money and help itself, and consumers too, by infusing some of that money to alleviate the pain of added fuel surcharges to ferry traffic. If they lowered prices by doing this, perhaps they would increase user traffic as a result and then positively affect their own bottom line. One of the problems that added fuel surcharges has is that it adds an artificial inflation rate to anything coming into the province, or leaving it. Newfoundland and Labrador businesses need the stability in transportation prices that can be achieved by doing this. Besides being seen as a possible economic recovery measure, is it possible that we could increase tourist traffic by lowering ferry rates as a result of making a move like this? I believe it would.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

No big changes in the numbers this week

Hi to all...

I won't bother you all with working on a press release for this one.

No big changes this week.

Numbers show a drop in heating and stove oils by 27/100ths of a cent, gasoline to increase by just a penny and diesel prices to remain the same.

Of note in the markets this week:

*The Canadian dollar has gained almost 2.24 cents against the US greenback.
*Last inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration showed an increase in crude oil inventories of 3 million barrels. The same report also showed a drawdown in gasoline and distillate inventories, possibly an indicator of increasing demand. Gasoline consumption is close to 3/10ths of a percentage point below last year.
*Refinery capacity also increased this past week, reaching 81.2% of operable capacity.
*Total of the product supplied against last years numbers shows a drop in imports into the US markets, possibly another indicator of the industry trying to stymie any increase in an already excess inventory. That move is also helping to support prices.

That's it for now!

Don't forget to scroll back and have a look at the local heating oil prices. You'll find quite a difference!

Regards for now,

George

Latest price check show intense competition in the region

Before I do anything, here's what I have so far this week with five days data out of a possible seven days:

• Heating and stove oils show a very modest 14/100ths of a cent decline.
• Diesel shows "no change" and...
• Gasoline shows an added 1.4 cents a litre.

I'll keep you updated with another release and blog posting late tomorrow night on what to expect for Thursday.

Now, here's what I have for this weeks price check of heating oils in the St. John's region. I have added a few observations from the calling around that I done this morning with a few odd things showing up.

Make note of the "notations" at the end:

Company......................Cents/Litre

Harvey's Oil.......................................78.05*

Irving Oil...........................................76.05**

ESSO (Imperial)...............................76.05*

North Atlantic...................................76.05

Ultramar Ltd....................................76.05

Chafe's Oil.........................................76.05

Discount Fuels..................................70.40

A-1 Fuels...........................................70.00

Skinner's Oil......................................71.76

Price difference.......................8.5 cents/Lt or $76.50 + HST

That means a difference of $86.75 based on a 900/Lt fill-up!

Of note!

*To get prices from Harvey's, they asked for a lot of information as regards to my street addy and such which was a little troublesome considering all I wanted to know was the current price, but here's where it got a little too strange. I was given two prices, one of which I was told was if I was a current Harvey's Oil customer. That price was 78.05/Lt cents a litre.

If I wasn't a Harvey's customer, then my price was 70.05/Lt cents a litre just to switch over to Harvey's. Now, pardon me for saying this, but if I were a Harvey's customer, how come I'm not getting the 70.05/Lt price anyway?

**Both Irving and ESSO (Imperial) had phone center operators answering calls from New Brunswick. If I'm going to buy here in Newfoundland and Labrador, it might be a good idea to check where their main centers of operation are located in order to keep workers here in the province. On the same note, these companies may be well advised that if they're going to be operating here in the province, why don't you have more office staff here in the first place?

That's it for this entry. If you have any information that you might want to pass along that might be pertinent to the readers out there, why not drop me a note?

Regards,

George

Update #3

Numbers are up on all fronts
Consumers will see an increase in prices this Thursday morning

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 23, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see an increase in most fuel prices this week when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The numbers are substantial in light of what we have seen lately. I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 2.73 cents per litre, diesel to increase by 3.3 cents and gasoline to rise by 3.8 cents per litre this coming Thursday,” Murphy said.

“Even though there has been some slight inventory building, I have seen investors put their money into refined commodities against the dropping US dollar. With crude oil hitting over $80 US a barrel earlier this week, the writing was on the wall in the form of higher crude acquisition costs as well. Today however, there was a bad economic report out of the US that showed consumer confidence taking a dip. Hopefully, this will instill a hold position in the markets as that dip in confidence will also reflect on any anticipated increase in consumer demand. This latest increase may be just a hiccup and, if confidence in economic recovery shows itself elsewhere, we could be looking at a decrease in prices again soon.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

Six days of data confirm increases on the way

Here's a quick update to yesterday's posting that includes data from today's market trading:

• Heating and stove oils now show an increase of 2.76 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 3.2 cents a litre on the way, and...
• Gasoline shows an increase of 3.8 cents a litre coming Thursday morning.

Oh well...Time to hit the pumps Wednesday night!

I'll have all the numbers along with a press release posting here late tomorrow night.

Regards,

George

Numbers are up

Five day shows increases on the way

Just a couple of words of warning here as regards to what I have for this week.

Numbers for this period are up substantially for all fuels that I measure. Everyone knows by now that the PUB regulates prices here on a weekly basis now. For five days out of seven days data so far this session, here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.64 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added 3.0 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.5 cents.

Two more days of data to get here but, the writing seems to be on the wall as to what to expect this coming Thursday.

Also, everyone might take note that I will be posting a weekly listing of heating oil pricing in and around the immediate St. John's area. That should give everyone a rough idea on what to expect from their own company and also to get everyone to start asking their own companies why the difference in prices. Mind you, depending on what date I actually check prices, they will be out ahead of the regular price setting and will not include any of my numbers in the changes.

I'm thinking here that I will continue to post the "price check" on Mondays rather than the "press release" that includes my guess on the price change.

In other words, when I get my price check out, you will see the price change when the PUB institutes their new price settings the following Thursday.

Hope this helps.

If you have any suggestions you might want to see me undertake, drop me a note or leave a comment below.

Regards,

George

gasprices@hotmail.com

No big changes in the numbers
Huge price difference in the local heating oil markets observed

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 16, 2010- For the second week in a row, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador won’t be seeing any great changes to fuel pricing when the PUB moves to adjust prices later this week. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What’s in the numbers?
“Oil prices stayed relatively steady this past week with today’s trading session being the exception. Prices fluctuated anywhere between $74 and today’s close at $77.11 US a barrel. Refined commodity prices also rose along with oil and that absorbed any modest decreases that were expected. Heating and stove oil prices are expected to drop by 24/100ths of a cent, diesel by only a tenth, while gasoline is expected to drop by a half penny. It wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t change considering my margin for error of three tenths of a cent.”

From the markets this week

• Refinery capacity remains at near historic lows, recorded down to 78.4 per cent.
• Last inventory report showed an increase in crude oil inventories and a drop in imports. Could be a significant signal to the markets of waning demand amidst problems with economic recovery.
• Gasoline inventories also showed an increase last week of more than two million barrels, another indicator of possible demand drops for the fuel.
• A slight drop in distillate inventory, not unexpected as a result of poor winter weather in the northeast US last week.
• Oil bounced back as a result of the increase in the Euro against the US dollar. There’s a lot of faith that the European Union’s confidence in the Greece debt recovery plan.
• Finally to note: We could see another fight between Britain and Argentina in the South Atlantic over exploration and development rights around the Falkland Islands (The Malvinas). The Argentina government is now refusing entry to oil companies that are getting supplies from Argentinian ports, forcing oil companies to add tremendous expense costs to exploring off the coast of the islands. The recent war over the islands in 1982 cost several hundred lives




Local heating oil pricing
Here’s a run-down of local heating oil prices in the immediate St. John’s, Mount Pearl and CBS area:

Company Cents/Litre
Harvey’s Oil............ 75.74
Irving Oil................. 73.74
North Atlantic......... 73.74
Ultramar.................. 73.74
ESSO (Imperial)..... 73.74
Chafe’s Oil................ 73.74
Discount Fuels......... 68.0
A1 Fuels.................... 68.3
Skinner’s Oil............. 69.45

Difference Hi/Lo $78.99 (HST included) based on a 900Lt fill-up.

That’s it for now!

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices