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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

All the numbers are in
But there's something else I'm watching

As expected, the last day of trading didn't change the outlook on expected price increases by much, although the market news is hopeful that these latest increases may not last long.

Here's the final numbers first off;

  • Heating and stove oils are expected to increase by 3.73 cents a litre, down just a little from yesterday's forecast of 3.80 cents a litre.
  • Diesel shows an increase of 4.3 cents a litre, down 2/10ths from yesterdays numbers, and...
  • Gasoline shows up by 4.3 cents a litre. No change there.

Here's what I'm looking at for the next week at least, some of which could prove pivotal in consumer prices for the next price setting.

  • According to Bloomberg, an industry report (American Petroleum Institute) is showing a build in crude oil and distillate inventories that has yet to be confirmed by the US Energy Information Administration data, to be published tomorrow, sometime after 4 P.M (Newfoundland and Labrador time). If the data conforms a build in inventory, we may see upwards pricing pressure relief.
  • A break in the weather. Already, things are starting to return to normal with the US weather service forecasting warmer weather to move into the US northeast, the largest heating oil user region in the country, if not north America. Warmer weather could result in a drop in heating and stove oil pricing as a result of lower demand, and bring some side relief to diesel pricing as all are part of the distillate group of fuels.
  • The China government has cut back on monetary lending and removing close to 44 billion in liquidity from the Chinese economy. This might be a sign that all is not glowing in the Chinese economy, or they just want to slow down growth there.
  • Some other sectors are already putting out warnings of a drop in earnings, including Chevron. Again, this might prove to be a sign that any economic recovery words were short-lived. ALCOA also reported disappointing earnings today which may be anther sign of waning demand from the aluminum giant.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that all are going to impact consumer prices and help keep a dollar in our pockets. I hate to see any problems with economic recovery, but the bonus if any is that prices for petroleum products should come down.

That's it for now!

It's going to be an interesting week on the oil front. The recommendation here is to buy for the long term and hold off until the numbers take a beating. In other words, make the next fuel purchase last!

We'll be in touch with any changes.

Regards,

George

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