Equalization hullabaloo

The realities of the equalization pact between provinces and the federal government are specifically for one purpose; that of getting provincial governments off the "welfare" roles and give them the opportunity to prosper using the resources they have at hand, new or old.

What the latest Tory government program has said to Newfoundland and Labrador seems to ride hand in hand with any governments policy on welfare or employment insurance; "You've got yourself in a position where you can make an abundance of money so, it's time to take you off the welfare roles".

Far be it for me to say that, perhaps we have come into the future because it wouldn't be politically correct to say that. This equalization program that has put the "screws" to Newfoundland and Labrador comes hand in hand with what we are told is happening to our offshore resources, that we are seeing big benefits from our offshore resources. While we hear the provincial tories saying that it's all good here on the Rock, the federal government seems to recognize the fact as well and that seems to be whats got the "bee in Danny's bonnet".

The whole purpose of the Atlantic Accord was to advance the offshore industries to the point that we could see the ultimate benefits like Alberta does, but the irksome realisation is that we can't see that for the forest that has grown before our eyes, created by the present administration in the province. It was Brian Mulroney who said that he "wasn't afraid to inflict prosperity on the people of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador".

Maybe the feds really weren't afraid to do it. Maybe we were afraid to accept the reality that we would profit by the offshore accord signed in 1985.Are we afraid of seeing the money come in? Are we getting paranoid of making deals so much that we can't accept the status quo on this one?

I don't think we got the screws on this one. I think we saw the premier put the screws to us. He hasn't signed a deal and time is running out now on the Atlantic Accord. The reality is that the Atlantic Accord could be a story of lost opportunity five years from now.

How so?....

It's like this. Had we seen the other offshore fields progress to the point that they were bringing in untold revenues, would we really care if we had to receive equalization again?

That's the question that none of the Try provincial politicians seems to want to answer.

Are we afraid of making a deal?

The Offshore Oil Industry is now on Life Support

...but, what do I know about the oil industry...

So, I'm thinking after reading the Globe and Mail article that, maybe the offshore oil industry has just been put on life support.

Hibernia South...Hebron-Ben Nevis...

We don't have a fishery that would be worthy of the inshore fisherman to talk about. The economic powerhouse, the center of trade for large fishing companies that was St. John's, was thrust inexhorably into the oil industry just a short 25 years ago, with oil rigs punching holes in the seabed some 200 miles out in the search for "light-sweet".

Houses bloomed in areas where we tore down the trees and then named the subdivisions after wood groves of them. People from distant countries who were used to starting up the engines of oil-based economies moved here and set up home, wives shopping at the malls while the men in the suits worked in the "towers" of the old, musty, fish-scented downtown core.

There was hope in some of those buildings, and in the buildings where the politicians fought, that "have nots would be no more",... that "I'm not afraid to inflict prosperity on the people of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador"...

I guess after today, we may have found out that someone in the Confederation Building just might be afraid to inflict prosperity on the people, huh?

Today, Exxon-Mobil packed up their dinkies and they're now heading out to play with some other kids in their sandbox. Today, we found out that Exxon-Mobil has written off their offshore interests until sometime after the year 2010.

For some reason, I think my property here in Paradise just lost a couple of thousand dollars in value.

Can I sue for that I wonder??

They've parked a project that could have brought Newfoundland and Labrador off transfer payments and we wouldn't have given a damn if the federal finance minister had paid us a visit again...

Now that we won't have those revenues, those offshore jobs, those economic spin-offs from the industry, well....I guess we just found out that the province just hit the brick wall and we'll all be saying "good-bye" at the airport a few more times yet.

And, I guess we'll be seeing a whole lot more of the federal finance minister again...

Faint hope, I guess...

Letter to Natural Resources minister of Canada, Gary Lunn

Here's a copy of the letter I sent to Natural Resources Minister, Gary Lunn the other day. I figured i would list this one as a matter of interest to consumers in Canada and the United States.

Feel free to leave a comment...

Mr. Gary Lunn March 05, 2007
Minister of Natural Resources
Government of Canada
House of Commons
Ottawa, Ont.
K1A 0A6


Dear Mr. Lunn,

I am writing to you in the hope of expressing concern for the ongoing shortage of gasoline and related commodities and, in the hope I may be able to share my years of research with a small synopsis of the situation as well as possible solutions.

I also hope to share some possible solutions to the problem in the hope the Government of Canada may formulate policy to avoid such troubles in the future, as well as have the present problem solved. I have some nine years experience in learning about the workings of the oil companies as well as becoming quite knowledgeable on all aspects of how pricing to the consumer is performed.

As you well know by now, the Imperial Oil Nanticoke refinery in Ontario suffered a fire which drew Imperial’s refinery capacity out of an already stressed marketplace. That, in turn, has helped work pricing up on a consumer level that some find unbearable and others, like tourism industries, are showing concern for the summer season.

High prices, as we well know, not only hinder the economics of the country, they hurt the spending of the Canadian consumer. They show restraint and that’s not good for business in the country. Consumers want to know that there is “fairness’ in the marketplace and not an edge to one group or the other. We recognize the right of business to make a profit on an even playing field as well as recognize the need for petroleum-based product that the rest of the country may require in the future.

The problem that the Imperial Oil refinery closure caused was the straw that, effectively, broke the consumers back and it was a rude awakening to the capacity problem that the consumer faces in this country. While we lost a refinery in central Canada, prices have been affected in all reaches of the country and on world and North American markets.


While it wasn’t the only accident we saw in North America over the past couple of months, it was enough to add some stress to an already stressed price on the markets for refined gasoline product. This is the highest wintertime gasoline spot price I have recorded since first taking stock of price trends and the highest starting point for prices leading up to the summer driving season.

The writing is, effectively, on the wall for high pricing this season barring any unusual circumstance like economic collapse or very strong inventory builds.

What this refinery shutdown tells me are several things that I hope government will consider for future policy. These suggestions may seem to be controversial and will probably be susceptible to others who know slightly different. A lot of these suggestions will also work in the long term because they become the impetus by which consumers and industry get to both build, and conserve.

Here are several suggestions of which I hope you can consider:

The lessons of the shortages in gasoline have told us that this country has no grip on how much Canada consumes as a country. It also tells the consumer that we consume beyond our means and are only limited by how much Canada can produce. Bearing that in mind, the Government of Canada should immediately take steps to create Canada’s own “Energy Information Administration” that includes:

Mandatory reporting and publishing of available refined product by type.
Mandatory reporting and publishing of crude oil data and inventory.
A weekly summary of crude supplied to the markets.
Numbers to substantiate crude oil exports.
Numbers showing refined product exports by country and quantity.
Numbers that show available Canadian refinery capacity.
Numbers that show available refined inventory data by area of the country.
Show data for all petroleum products used in the country including natural gas.
Include daily postings via the Internet of cash petroleum pricing of all petroleum products.

These are just a few ideas for this new branch of the Natural Resources department should entail.

What effectively happens is that the country becomes more aware of what it consumes and the traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and others, become sensitive to the availability of Canadian supplies of petroleum and related products. If Canada has ample inventories of product that is supplied to protect Canadian consumers’ needs, and there is extra on hand, then these refined products can become a wedge to drive prices down on the markets. Traders speculate on available inventory in Canada as well as their own market.



It would not be likely that, should Canadians see inventory of product in Canada protected for the interests of Canada and Canadian business, pricing would rise or be excessive to the consumer. If they saw on a weekly basis that inventories of product were dropping, and that pricing may be affected on the interim on the markets, they would be more likely to save and practice conservation to prevent any increase in product pricing. Mandatory reporting on the part of the oil companies in Canada, along with data gathering by personnel of the Natural Resources department, will also help oil companies gauge what and how much to produce from month to month. This has an immediate impact of saving a refinery’s energy and helping keep Canada’s environment a little cleaner.

Industry, particularly those that use heating oils and natural gas, will likely be able to track pricing and available petroleum inventory and make judgmental decisions on what type of heating fuels to use on a yearly basis as industry does in the United States. They make decisions on what type of fuel to use based on long term costs to their factories.

In closing, the government of Canada also has to put in place a mandatory moratorium on any further closures of refineries in Canada until it can figure out how much Canadians are consuming versus the refined product that is produced in this country and available to the Canadian consumer. Nothing else is asked of this country besides looking after the consumer environment as well as his or her future needs as well as those of Canadian industry. Ironically, it was a closure of the last refinery within Canada that may have put the industry itself on a tenuous road to problems for the consumer, that refinery having closed in Sarnia, Ontario just within the last two years.

The Government of Canada must take the steps to recognize its own citizen’s needs as well as those of future consumers of petroleum products. It also has the duty to protect as much of the resource as those citizens will need in the future. That responsibility should include environment concerns balanced with the needs of Canadians first and it has to become the lever against traders in the U.S marketplace.

These thoughts are also available in a report I made to the Standing Committee on Gasoline Pricing in Canada some years ago. If you desire a copy of that report, please let me know and I will forward a copy to you via mail or via email.


With best regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Don't look now!

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador to see

increases this week!

I'd rather you all get some kind of notice than none at all.

Truth of the matter is that everything is pointing up, although it looks like heating and stove oils won't be a part of what has been happening this time around.

With a couple of more trading days to go, Newfoundland and Labrador will most likely see Early Interruption to pricing.

Too early to say exactly how much but preliminary numbers are suggesting as much as an 8 cent per litre increase could be on the way.

I'll have more sometime Wednesday morning on this one...

Keep an eye.

Why you will be paying more for fuels in the future

Tonight, the people of Quebec have been victimized by Big Oil and our own gluttony. As consumption continues to increase at an alarming rate well above last years level, we have seen refinery fires in North America.

Thursday morning, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will wake up to an added five cents a litre at the pumps to help put the fires out...

Were they caused by just ordinary accidents?

While no accident should be considered ordinary, I cannot help but think that consumer consumption may have been a marked contributer to what we have come to witness in Ontario and Quebec.

Our own gluttony for gasoline and the Big Oil policy of shutting down refineries to gain control of supply and demnd, has finally come home to roost for the consumer. While we burn it for Big Oil, have we also put them under pressure to meet that consumer demand? Have we become that thirsty for gasoline and their related commodities, that we have become the cause of the problem in the first place?

We have also become complacent in letting Big oil close refineries in the first place. Several refineries in Canada have closed over the past few years, the latest being a PetroCanada facility in Sarnia a couple of years ago. Some 18 refineries have closed since the early seventies in Canada and, have we seen demand decrease in that timeframe?

The answer is "no".

Fewer motorists existed than exist now and we have become a generation that has moved from trains to highwways and tractor trailer transport. While demand has increased, overall production capacity has decreased over the same time period.

Until you hear that Big Oil is going to increase the number of oil refineries, or that the number of drivers on the roads are going to drop, then we will be facing the prospect of ever-increasing petroleum pricing for the next generation to become witness to.

Maybe it's time we move back to the barn?

Prices moving upwards

Stay tuned!

This picture, from the Canadian Press, shows a refinery fire at Imperial's Sarnia plant in December, 2006.

Might have been surprised if I didn't see some sort of a market ploy to get prices moving upwards again but, there we go. We're going to see the screws put to us again compliments of the traders on Wall Street.

Newfoundland and Labrador's turn is coming this Thursday as we'll be watching the pricies roll over at the pumps. While a little early to predict, so far, the numbers are showing an allowable 4.5 cents up at the pumps for gasoline.

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick got hit the other day and other regions are experiencing upwards moves by Big Oil.

The causes?

A refinery fire in Sarnia(above), the CN rail strike has contributed to shortages, another two refinery fires south of the border, Iran and it's pursuit of a nuclear program, ongoing inventory concerns, colder weather....

Shall I go on?

I'll have more for everyone on Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning so, be looking for the media announcement and the email release with the official numbers. There will be an increase but, it could range a little higher than this number with a couple of more trading days left.

I don't expect any miracles, though it's nice to see some divine intervention now and then.

Keep watching!

Possible attacks on Canadian Oil facilities?

Don't laugh...It's possible!

I was disturbed that a branch of Al Qaeda has seen fit to recognize the importance of Canadian oil to the economics of the United States and how important our oil industry is to the U.S.

The story first broke yesterday on CTV News.

A couple of years ago I asked the same questions about security around the North Atlantic Refinery in Placentia Bay, the facilities in downtown Halifax owned by Imperial, and in New Brunswick owned by the Irvings.

I don’t think anyone took me serious then.
Then along comes this posting by the terrorist cell.

If anyone thinks there is little concern, let me refresh their memory on who this group is and what their capabilities are.

Twice now, to my memory they have attacked the Ras Tanura oil facility deep in Saudi Arabia.
The first time was with a small group of terrorists that tried to get into the facility and attack both foreign oil workers and the refinery system there.

The second time was with a larger group of people who also failed in their attempt to disable the facility. Both times, small weaponry was used but still with the loss of life.

The third time they try they may very well succeed. Any successful attempt at bringing down the facilities at Ras Tanura would possibly remove nearly 6.6 million barrels of crude oil a day from world markets.

While knocking out the North Atlantic Refinery would be miniscule in the world scale of refineries, its removal from the markets would have enormous economic impact-not just because of the fact it is a refinery, but for the fact that an economic target was successfully nailed by a terrorist group within North America again.

I won’t even get into what the ramifications are for the economy, let alone fuel pricing.

If these companies are going to take this threat lightly, they’re headed for a world of trouble.

There is nothing so dangerous as a determined enemy.

Look out!

Pricing pointing up

Consumer beware!

Since January 18, 2007, we saw crude oil reach a low of $50.47 US a barrel. You just knew it wasn't going to last long.

You'd be right if you guessed upwards movement is coming to consumers in the coming days...

Numbers so far, are showing an allowable upwards movement on stove oils of something in the order of 4.4 cents a litre. That may be pointing the way up for distillates like heating oils and diesels.

Gasoline pricing is also into interrupt territory and consumers will likely see a movement up by something in the order of 4.6 cents on a litre.

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick users beware and fill before Friday as, I also have upwards movement on gasoline on the consumer level. Because you have a different adjustment time, you won't see as much in the Maritimes but, you will still get hit. So far, I have a 3.4 cent a litre movement to come to you.

Colder weather and OPEC cuts are taking the blame this time around but, you have to ask yourself if the market traders should be under closer scrutiny for this one. Being this close to the end of winter, is it that likely that we are going to go through what's in total inventory?

Perhaps a U.S investigation of trader practises in the U.S is in order?

Oh well...Here we go again!

Auditor General and your road taxes...

"Let's make a deal"

The Auditor General's report on spending told Newfoundland and Labradorians something disturbing that, as consumers of gasoline and diesel products, we should all be disgusted with.

His report stated that...

"In 1996, we concluded that the department was not adequately managing the road system. A decade later, we have come to the same conclusion."

Now, I don't know about you but, this one bugs the hell out of me considering the fact that we haven't seen good road maintenance in spite of the money consumers have invested. Here in Newfoundland and Labrador, we have seen road taxation levels of 16.5 cents a litre on every drop of motive fuel sold here. According to the A. G's report, last year, we saw a paltry $36 million invested when there was an estmate in the 2006 budget of $142.7 million to be collected. The Actual for 2005 was $141.5 million.

There is something wrong with this number...

Last week when the report came out, I took the time to hunt down some of the numbers the A'G use to base his numbers on.

1997's actual amount collected from road taxes totalled $119.4 million to yesterdays report of 142.7. people should be shocked to learn that, we haven't seen strategic investment in the Labrador region of the province where road infrastructure has been a tiresome fight for the citizenry there as well. They deserve their fair share and need it desperately, not a piece of "chip seal" that they'll get on an experimental basis.

What the citizens of this province need is the promise that every cent collected in the form of road taxation goes directly to roads and their related ferry systems in Newfoundland and Labrador...

What the A'G's report gave us was the fact that, since 2002's investment of some $80 million, there's no wonder we're complaining about roads and ferries here in Newfoundland and Labrador, moreso now than ever...

We just don't know when we'll see that strategic investment happen...

Get ready. What you're going to hear in the coming days will be chatter from the governing Tories about the fed's not investing their share...

Ya right...

Deals for roads include a good working relationship with those upalong.

Not likely that's going to happen any time soon...

Gas stays steady, Stove Oils up...

Numbers are showing me that, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, will be looking at steady pricing for gasoline...for now and an increase coming on stove oils of 2.4 cents a litre.

Gasoline pricing may not be left unaffected for very long however...

The last week in the trading markets are starting to move pricing upwards again and, all areas of North America will be affected should trading conditions continue. After trading yesterday, gasoline spot pricing rose by 3.1 cents a litre and #2 oils rose by 7 cents a litre over the fix some two weeks ago.

Funny thing is that this is completely contrary to what was heard in the markets some couple of weeks previous. Most market traders were considering the fact that OPEC members continuously cheat on their own quotas and the reports showed that. Warmer weather in the US northeast also aided in good builds to heating oil inventories and a drop in jet fuel demand added to the downwards pressures on distillates.

Not so now...

Reports on the latest round of OPEC cuts are showing that the Saudi's are reigning in their production and the rest of OPEC membership will, most likely follow.

My guess is that refiners in North America are shortly going to bail out on distillate production, considering the lateness of the heating season, in favour of taking a chance on the gasoline market demand for the summer season. It's early to do that considering May month is three months away yet but, that's all the traders have to depend on right now.

Add to that, a predicted drop in overall refiner capacity and the ability" to keep up with ongoing demand pressures that will sap inventories and you have the recipe.That's partly reason why, in the coming weeks, the oil companies are going to be able to put the screws to us all again.

I won't even touch on those predetermined hurricane forecasts that they'll be trading on but, remember where you heard it first.

Look for increasing gasoline pricing again unless the consumer fights back, on a collective basis, by practising conservation measures.

Ya think that we'd learn our lesson on OPEC dependency, wouldn't you?

Not for a long time yet...

What is the purpose of a resource?

Gawd knows I am no favorite of the oil companies, but...

From the CBC archives comes this picture, taken at the Capital Hotel last October, 2006. The picture was taken during a job fair at the hotel.

Some 9000 people showed up looking for prospective employment in Alberta.

While Alberta enjoys having the problem of not enough people to help nurture its resources and help bring them to market, here the problem is the opposite-we have the resources, but not enough of an ability to realize what the purpose of those resources are.

We don't have the courage to sign a deal that means more than just to the provincial treasury.

The picture itself has to ask the question, if you live here in Newfoundland and Labrador, exactly what is the purpose of a resource?

If then, the purpose of a resource is to make things better in your own neck of the woods, then why can't the province get it right? If we can't USE a resource to put our own people to work, then, why do we have them?

The purpose of a resource is to help nurture your own people so they can create an environment where they can stay, have some kind of hope that they can put down roots, to carry out what we have been trying to do for years:

Survive!

If we are so hell-bent on doing what is right for the province, why can't we reach a consensus with those who are to develop those same resources to help us survive in this place?

I don't like the fact that someone can purport to be "doing the right thing" when I see line-ups of people looking for opportunity elsewhere from this land. I don't like the fact that our best resource-OUR PEOPLE- are being exported "raw" to places where they'll be a number and not a name.

It's here that the people of this land want to stay.

To you in the upper echelon I do have to say:

The purpose of a resource, is to keep your most important resource-your people-here.

Exactly how bad is the Hebron-Ben Nevis deal, that we haven't been shown the details of what has been negotiated for before talks broke off? How bad off does the government treasury have to be before the government realizes it has done irreparable damage to it's own people for which their resources have been meant for?

Does the government forget that, with out-migration comes a lack of youth? That in turn means an older population for which they'll be spending millions for homecare when they get older because their own children would have planted roots in a far away land years before?

Does the government understand the implications for which it has broken off negotiations?

Really!...

The words of a Stan Rogers song come to mind here:

"So, bid farewell to the eastern town you never more will see...

There's self respect and a steady check in this refinery.

You will miss the green and the woods and streams and the dust

will fill your nose.

But you'll be free, and just like me, an idiot I suppose..."

Now he's off to Fort McMurray to check on the kids...

I'm sure they're doing just fine.

Maybe they might have phoned you from the 403 or 780 area code already

to tell you so...

More thoughts on U.S energy needs

I was thinking again...

Getting to be a dangerous thing!

Yesterday, i posted a word or two on the story where george bush and the U.S Energy Department meeting with key officials of Natural Resources Canada.

The story, as CBC's Radio-Canada reported, is that the U.S is trying to get Canada to "step up" production of crude or bitumen, from the western oil sands projects, mostly in Alberta. What they are asking the Canadian government for is a fivefold increase in production from the oil sands fields. Not only are environmentalists worried, Canadians should be worried about becoming a US energy supplier before Canadians and their consumers are.

There are other underlying concerns here though, that Eastern Canadian producing provinces should be worried about, imparticularly Newfoundland and Labrador.

What I'm saying about that, is this...

Newfoundland and Labrador fought long and hard to attain offshore oil production, finally seeing first oil from the Hibernia project come to fruition in 1997. The project is now through its half-way point with another ten years of production left in it.

What we have also been left witness to is a break-off over negotiations of the Hebron-Ben Nevis oil project not far from Hibernia and a possible shut-down of the offshore oil industry as Newfoundland and Labradorians now know it.

Talks broke off when the premier of the province wanted "extras" like an equity stake in the project. The oil companies who discovered the resource, with no input of provincial investment in the project, have refused to grant those extra conditions.

Because there is now an impass and there is no hope of a future agreement under the Williams administration, it is very likely that Newfoundland and Labrador will not see the advent of another oil and gas project while the present administration remains in power.

What we possibly are going to lose is a heck of a lot of revenue to look after our seniors who will be left alone because Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will, again, head west to help Alberta produce oil "fivefold" for the United States.

Alberta is presently exporting some one million barrels of oil per day South of the Border and, with the likelihood of five million coming on-stream by 2015, we just might see the population of Newfoundland and Labrador become decimated by the outflux of workers and their families to western areas.

There's trouble ahead...

The question remains however, "what is the province's best resource that it should preserve for future generations?"...

The answer in this case, should be " To preserve it's most cherished resource-it's people-for itself."

If the western oil sands developments take place, then the world's next endangered species might very well be Newfoundland and Labradorians...

It's going to be a slow death...

Hell no...

Canada beware!...George is coming!

According to CBC's Canad Now, George Bush's call for alternate supplies of crude oil other than what comes from the middle east, is going to be answered by Big Oil in Canada.

When George spoke to Congress last year, he told America and the politico's gathered there that America had to break its dependance on Middle East oil. According to the story, there was a "meeting of the minds" represented in part by Big Oil. The plan was a rapid, five-fold expansion of the oil production capability of Western Canada's tarsands.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't oil covered under the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA for short?

If that is the case, Canada's resources of oil could be swallowed up by the mere fact that NAFTA calls for any exports from one country aren't allowed to be reduced. In other words, we have to maintain and increase production to meet American industry and consumer needs.

Think of that for a minute...

While Canada produces 2.7 million barrels a day, it ships some. Uncle Sam will be looking for an added 1.5 million barrels a day by the year 2015 and that doesn't include present or future demand under "normal circumstances". Add the rising number of drivers and industries and we have a recipe to drain our own resources before the United States explores some other areas it hasn't touched yet...

We just might have to "bend over backwards" for Sam rather than ourselves in a few years.

I don't think so George, b'y!

Wait for it...

Some oil company officials and NYMEX traders must be basting in their own juices right now. Over the last couple of weeks, we've been witness to oil dropping from record highs a short time ago, to todays $51 and change.

Poor oil companies!

Pooor OPEC!

Remember when the OPEC'ers used to ramble in the news about maintaining oil between $22 and $28 US a barrel?

I can't seem to find the record, or news report, that saw OPEC officially change their minds on the range they were comfortable with. It's too bad they're too comfortable with this one.

Any day now, before February sets in, you will be witness to a breaking business news story that OPEC will be holding an emergency meeting to discuss production cuts in addition to those already self-imposed.

What you'll be witness to is direct manipulation of the family budget-or is it-victim of?

Here is what we really have, and some might call me nuts...

Here is reason enough why Canada should have a policy of "us first" when it comes to Canada's production of crude resources. If a company is to produce Canadian resources and supply the consumer of this country, it should be Canadian law that Canadian consumer and business needs are met first before any exports take place, and refined before they are, at that!

Here is reason enough why Canada should have a green program to break our dependence on foreign, let alone domestic- sources of petroleum products.

Here is reason enough why the world should be straight-out saying "no" to OPEC...

If we had the sense, we'd all call a world boycott of OPEC petroleum products and start using our own.

Told you I was nuts!

Keep a sharp eye out. Could be on the way up next week!

Hi to all...

Just figured that I'd send you al a little notice on this one.

With another one of those meteoric rises to oil pricing underway, from the loks of it, the people of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick will be taking the first hit as early as the morning of the 30th.

If the trend keeps up for the next couple of days, Newfoundland and Labrador will be taking the next one...

According to my numbers, there is some slight upwards movement on stove oils and an almost 2 cent a litre (plus taxes) movement on gasoline.

That means we're sure to see another price hike over the $1.00 a litre mark again.

Another draw on all the important fuel groups is telling me we just aren't getting that conservation message out there and simply, WE'RE PIGS BEHIND THE WHEEL.

Here's what I have with heating/stove at 49.08/Litre as of the last adjustment and gasoline at 47.78/Litre...

November 22/06...Heating...48.97...Gasoline...48.97

November 23/06...Heating...48.99...Gasoline...49.00

November 24/06...Heating...48.68...Gasoline...48.69

November 25/06...Heating...48.68...Gasoline...48.69

November 26/06...Heating...48.68...Gasoline...48.69

November 27/06...Heating...50.14...Gasoline...48.68

November 28/06...Heating...50.82...Gasoline...49.78

While the heating number might have averaged lower than my previous fix the last couple of days, heating oil and crude traded higher the last two sessions and continues to trade up. With cold weather forcast in the United States, the motivator of pricing is upwards, so be warned!

BOTH GASOLINE AND HEATING/STOVE OILS ARE SHOWING UPWARDS!

Mind you, with heating oil in big demand now, t'is not just the season for to be jolly, we're also a little more merry with turning up the thermostat when it gets a little cold like this too. Can't say I blame you myself for the rise in heating oils with the cold seeping in as it did but, gasoline?... C'mon people... we can do better than what we've been doing can't we?

All we need now is to see OPEC turn back the spigots and we're in big trouble!

Keep an eye out here for the latest release that I'll be posting sometime next Tuesday or Wednesday. I'll have a clearer picture then what's going to happen but, I'd be hitting the pumps Wednesday night coming.

Regards for now!

George

Slight upwards adjustments coming

Keep an eye to the blog here in the next few days as I will be posting numbers. From the look of things, there is going to be some slight adjustments upwards to gasoline and stove/heating oils.

Not much now mind you, but still up nonetheless!

George

Night mission- November 1941

Snow on the ground
Crunches underfoot to the sound
Of twin wasps

Into the belly
The keeper of the brain
To the nerve centre for a seat
in the steel cold hardness of war.

Moving slowly o’er the grass
and into the reaches of space.
Into the arms of a waiting enemy
And wishing forever for home…

© George Murphy September 15,1995

Here's another of my little pieces...
What it must have been like, to hop into a plane whose tires may have been frosted to the ground, the interior freezing, and then knowing you might not be back for breakfast.
The plane you're looking at is a Bristol Beaufighter and it's probably this same scene that I saw some time ago that inspired the piece I wrote. The plane is a Bristol Beaufighter, the type that our Newfoundland and Labrador fellows flew for a few years before the Mosquito came in.
This one is again dedicated to everyone who ever serviced a plane outside in freezing temperatures, who ever flew, whoever served, and for whoever may still mourn.
On days such as these, I think we all do.
Remembrance Day isn't far away so, I figured I would put a few in, if for no other reason than to remember the fellows and ladies who died for the right for me to post...

Night mission- November 1941

Frost on the ground
crunches underfoot to the sound,
and vibrations of twin wasps.
Into the belly, the keeper of the brain
to the nerve centre for a seat
in the cold hardness of war.
Moving slowly o'er the grass
and into the reaches of space.
Into the arms of a waiting enemy,
and wishing forever for home........

© George Murphy September 15, 1995

This is one I done some time ago. Picture a Newfoundland pilot crawling into one of these planes on a cold winter night. The pic is a plane called the "Beaufighter", the type used by the 125 Newfoundland squadron in England. Not the same call letters on this one, but might have been a scene that could have taken place when one of our boys took to the English skies. The squadron later converted to Mosquito's. They started off on Bolton Paul Defiants before going to Beaufighters.

I have a few more bits of poetic justice that I'll put up here in the coming weeks, particularly as we get close to Remembrance Day.

Duelling Poets
or
Dar, dar dar, dar, dar, dar, dar, dee, dar…..


So, we hear the Pickards are done, caput
So sad to see them go.
They’re relegated to play the bard
in some poetic overflow.

In exchange for journalistic fun
They threw lines out in befuddlement,
Alas, no more to get the CBC buck
that small entitlement!

And now, you say, with sharp wit
from this enduring coast of fog.
There has to arise that great white hope
maybe heard about in news or blog?

They’re to inform, cajole, banter,
And get the people talking.
Like the gossipy government worker,
off for dinner and Kent’s Pond walking!

It’s there that you might find him
Walking off poetic prose.
Or it’s her in the Mall a shopping
For Christmas gifts I s’pose!

No wait! That’s her a driving
To her law firm on the streets there just off Water.
Or maybe it’s him in CBS
Who wants to help in poetic slaughter!

They’ll all have to have the streetsmarts
Match words like Harper and Ignatieff
That Harvard raised Canadian
Who didn’t follow Kruschev!

Good hunting I say I hope you find
the replacement for the Dual Pickard poets.
Dunno where you’re gonna look?
C’mon people. Don’t be afraid to show it.

So, what’s the chances of poetic licence
Under the guise of the CBC?
Well, you have to come up with your own words
Get your own rhymes people and leave mine be!

Oh my Geoff what was the trick
The Pickards all played on us?
Why did they plan this vengeance
And start up all this fuss?

They’ve asked us all to go the line
Ah so, what’s the poetic diff?
I still can’t think of a single word
To rhyme with Ignatieff.

I’m trying here Geoff
To think of something to go with entitlement.
But I can’t come up with a thing
To meet the Pickard’s enlightenment!

Ahh, I guess I won’t , but,.. no!… Just wait
I just took that mental jog.
And your listeners can find this piece
right in George Murphy’s Blog!

Cuzz see, I’ve just upped the ante,
And let have it all real nice.
Couldn’t I just find the words,
And with that, I think I got ‘em twice!

The challenge there for all to see
For the next in line of the CBC airwaves bards,
To boldy go with poetic rhyme
And go one up on the dual Pickards!

© George Murphy October 18/06

Why I'd fill the heating oil tank...

Keeping an eye here to heating/stove oil pricing and I'm thinking that NOW might be a good time to top the tank off and here's the reasons why...

While spot pricing for heating/stove oils dropped back the past couple of weeks, pricing for heating/stove oils have rebounded slightly in the face of possible OPEC cuts that are coming in the next two days.
Spot prices have, in fact, reached a point where any more upwards volitility may lead to early interruption of prices to the important winter commodity. The last three days average a 1.8 cent a litre increase but it's the last business day that is alarming. Yesterdays trading price was 3.6 cents over my month-end fix of 48.10 cents a litre.
Two more good days where heating/stove oil trades up and the possibility is there for interruption of pricing.
That means you'll get to pay a little more for it...

While the numbers could trade down enough in the next day or so enough to prevent early interuption of pricing, that doesn't mean that they'll head downwards.
Au contraire!...
Remember...We're now into the winter heating/stove oil demand season and there are enough conditions out there that warrant close watching by the consumer.
1) Possible OPEC cuts to production.
2) Draws on inventory, or lower than expected production of heating/stove oils.
3) Colder weather. That'll be enough to increase demand ahead of refineries going through the changes to produce heating/stove oil-what they like to call "maintenance".
4) The winter demand season. Because the product is in need at this time of the year, prices have the tendency to rise along with the season.

If Interruption happens, look for the possibility over the next few days as the OPEC news breaks and the markets swallow what they'll tell them and translate that into news the companies like to hear, an increase in pricing to come.

That's it from me for now,

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Gasoline to Drop...

Not much Change in Heating/Stove oils

Hi to all...
Latest numbers are showing a 1.8 cent a litre drop in gasoline pricing to come to Newfoundland and Labrador while heating and stove oils may not show that much change.
Here's the reason I say that (on heating/stove oils).
According to the last couple of days data, namely from the 9th to the 11th, I have had three sources giving me three different numbers on spot pricing of the products. If I go by the lower number, that shows a .96 cent a litre drop, in other words, almost a cent. If I go to the higher number the markets threw out, that number gets less than that.
In other words, there may be no change.
The latest market news of a drawdown on heating oil inventory is now another reason why I'm telling everyone to fill their tanks now.
Todays data from the Energy Information Administration shows a drawdown on inventories that was larger than what was expected to the commodity.
Add to that, the fact that we are about to enter the winter demand season and we have the imputus to a future increase in pricing.
I reccomend that you all fill your heating/stove oil tanks ASAP.
I have to look at my data after final prices come into effect to know what was the right one to begin with.

Airline News-Please read and pass it on...
As some of you are aware, I am pursuing the whole "fuel surcharge" deal where, the airlines charge extra on airfares to help offset the "increased cost" of jet fuel.
The Air Transport Association of Canada was out this week in response to clims from myself that it was time to reduce the surcharges in light of drops to jet fuel pricing along with drops in crude oil.
They say they're not going to budge.
In an interview with CBC New Brunswick http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2006/10/11/nb-airfuel.html the industry sopkesperson said that "the recent drop in prices are helping the companies make up for losses."
Beg your pardon?...

The airlines of this nation seem to forget that the fuel surcharge the consumer is paying was meant to catch up with the extra costs associated with fuel costs in the first place, were they not?

The facts are these:
1. Three international airlines have now dropped some, or all, of the fuel surcharges they were charging on airfares, so much so, that I can now put about $50 US in my pocket merely by flying with them. KLM, El Al and Lufthansa, have all dropped surcharges on passenger tickets.
2. Air Canada, Canjet, Westjet have yet to move. Air Canada is a member of the Star Alliance that also includes Lufthansa. If lufthansa can drop rates on travel, surely the National airline can?...
3. Jet fuel pricing has dropped from an average of 68 cents a litre ($2.20US a gallon) to roughly 51 centa a litre($1.70 a gallon) since July. Fuel surcharges have been added to ticket pricing since last March by Air Canada. Capture your market share by dropping your price!

STAY TUNED IN ON THIS ONE.

Regards for now,

George

Hang in There Baby!

Keep an eye to the blog in the coming day or two as, I will have details on impending drops in gasoline and heating oils.

Remember...

Heating oils may drop in the next day or two but we are now in the demand season for the fuel and the international situation may move things back up again. While crude is dropping, the heating oil price is beginning to "even out" a little so, when that price drops, I'd fill the oil tank.

I'll post the release in a day or two, and that will have all the gory details on what's to come, probably the morning of the 12th.

Should show somewhere around 96.6 or so for the st. John's area...

Regards,

George

Well people?...
I think it's time for the airlines, worldwide at that, to drop some of their ticket surcharges!
Time to make a noise I think!

George

News release


Jet fuel prices are dropping…

Time for the airlines to remove some charges from consumers’ ticket prices

Paradise, NL. October 04,2006 – While the price of oil has been dropping and resulting commodity prices for gasoline and heating oils have dropped at the consumer level also, the price of airline tickets has not been as responsive to declining crude oil costs.

Consumers everywhere including Newfoundland and Labrador and the rest of Canada as a result, are paying too much for airline tickets that were increased as a result of increasing jet fuel costs. According to Murphy, they've dropped radically in recent weeks.

“While the price for jet fuel has seen a dramatic drop in recent weeks, we have not seen the airlines drop fuel surcharges that consumers were forced to pay as a result of those same increased costs. Prices have dropped and so should airline ticket prices,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices in St. John’s,NL.
“The last time Air Canada increased surcharges on a consumer level, jet fuel prices were recorded by the US Energy Information Administration at almost 68 cents a litre Canadian. Since yesterday, that same price has decreased to 51 cents a litre, a 17 cent a litre drop for which consumers are on the hook.”

All the Canadian airline companies, Air Canada, Westjet and Canjet, applied fuel surcharges to consumers in the face of rising crude oil costs.
Consumers in Canada have been faced with increasing airline ticket prices since the winter of 2001 when crude oil prices started to skyrocket. In recent weeks, crude oil pricing has dropped almost $15 US a barrel.
“The airlines should be honest and up-front with the consumer and give back what they so desperately wanted just a few short months ago. We gave then, are giving now and it’s time the airline industry return the favour and they should act retroactively for anyone about to take a trip.” He said.

-30-


For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Rebranding

Now they've taken our colours

from that burgundy to Tory blue,

So, I have to change my Newfoundland tartan

because they'll want to change that too...

Oh, Here we have party colours

and on my knapsack I'll have to stitch'er,

but it's the first time I ever saw that plant

this time, without the pitcher!

Well, the experts got together

and set out designs on the cabinet table,

a limited target audience,

these were the ones enabled?

How much did they say they paid for that?

For a million they missed the Target,

for a cartoon look and feel

They want to take that to market?

God guard thee Newfoundland and Labrador

from sun-up to sun down,

please change their minds from this look and feel

that looks like something from a clown...

George Murphy

I simply couldn't resist!...The only thing I did like about this was the type of font used. Other than that, the weak link to Labrador and the sick looking Pitcher Plant...and dropping the old Newfoundland and Labrador reddish-ocre colour.Call it burgundy, but I loved it.

News Release News Release

WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF UNDER A BUCK GASOLINE

Hi to all...

Just to let you all know that I have the numbers that alow for downwards movement of fuels I am tracking. Interruption criteria calls for an average of 3.5 cents a litre-up or down-movement over a five day period.

Heating oil shows a downwards movement by 3.96 cents a litre which should also be the same for stove oils.

Gasoline shows a 3.52 cent a litre over the last five days-downwards- and that means, if my numbers are right, gasoline will come down by 3.43 cents a litre plus taxes (3.9 or 4.0 cents a litre).

Heating/stove oils showed interruption as of yesterday and pricing should be adjusted down to the consumer as of 12:01A.M this coming Saturday, September 23/06. Good builds of inventory the last couple of weeks has figured well into downwards drops in spot pricing and we're hopeful that this will continue and not factor into high winter pricing.

Heating/stove oil spots are now 13 cents a litre below last years levels. What a turnaround!

Gasoline shows that pricing will be adjusted down as of Sunday morning, September 24/06 by the 3.9 or 4.0 cent a litre figure. Gasoline spots are now 12 cents below the same day for last year as well. No hurricanes, good inventories in the aftermath of the summer driving season and a somewhat stable international political situation are keeping things down-for now.

While my number is within the confines of my margin for error of 3/10ths of a cent, adjustment may not occur that morning but on Monday morning. That's because gasoline traded down again today by 4 cents US per gallon which brings the margin for error in line with what's happening out there in the markets.

Certainly, by Monday morning, gasoline will be down in the 98 cents a litre bracket.

Mind you, the companies don't have to wait for official word from the Public Utilities Board! We dare someone to "go for market share" in the interim. The Petroleum Pricing Office sets a maximum allowable and companies are free to charge below the regulated maximum if they "so wish".

Let's see what they do.

Regards for now,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

International Atomic Energy Agency cracks Bush...
Look for Oil Pricing to Drop Further...

Seems that George Bush and his cronies at the Huse and Senate Intelligence Committee will be eating crow for the next couple of weeks,or until they can find another reason to poke a warlike stick at Iran. He should never have started to rub the bottle-poor George!

According to a story on CNN tonight, the United Nations world energy watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote to George's crowd and scolded them for a dishonest case against Iran's nuclear intentions calling their findings "outrageous and dishonest".

George?...Lie?...Naw!...say it ain't so!...

According to the report, the IAEA wrote to the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee who claimed that Iran's nuclear program of enriching uranium was meant for nuclear weapons. The Committee had been claiming that Iran was using it's enrichment program for the sole purpose of nuclear weapons manufacture. Iran is far from the possibility according to the IAEA.

Look for the possibility of further downwards movement in crude, gasoline and heating oil pricing on the news.

Looks like Big Oil might take the kick on this one as well as the oil-rich Bush family. Let's hope that the United Nations can turn this one back on them all!

Regards,

George

Numbers confirmed...Heating,Stove and Gasoline to Drop...

They say that "When you're in Rome, do as the Romans do..." That being the case, my numbers are already indicating a drop at the pump and heating truck level to come to Newfoundland and Labrador cnsumers as early as September 15th 12:01 A.M.

There's not a lot of rocket science to the fact that,if I have the numbers then, they must have them too.

Numbers show that heating/stove oil pricing will drop back another 4.41 cents a litre while gasoline will drop back by 5.3 cents a litre.Why are they waiting?

Thankfully, because spots on heating and stove oils dropped again this month, we're now at a situation where we are almost 5 cents a litre below last years levels. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods on the heating pricing issue for the winter though.

Far from it because, in essence, we got lucky as consumers....

We're in a bit of a "null" now where ,traditionally, we have seen heating and stove oil pricing begin to increase in price, to peak sometime in February.The last time I saw pricing drop back in this manner was in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks when airline traffic went to crap and distillate inventory rose as a result.

With a very contentious situation with Iran and the European Union negotiations over Iran's nuclear program still going, any turnabout in negotiations may very well leave Iran using it's 4.5 million barrel per day oil production capacity as a weapon against the west in the event of a series of economic sanctions placed on it by the United Nations.They may not shut off the spigots but, they can very well turn back output and that's enough to reverse the downwards trend in heating oil pricing we're witness to right now.

Guess we have to take another "wait and see" attitude before we're free and clear for the winter season.

Keep the blankets handy though...

Regards,

George

Prices Pointing Down...Hold off at the Pumps...
and the Heating Oil Truck too...

Just to let you all know in Atlantic Canada as well as Newfoundland and Labrador that I am tracking a decent drop in fuel pricing to come to the consumer over the coming days.
Nova Scotia and New Brunswick consumers should be looking at a decrease anywhere around 2 to 3 cents at the pumps while, on the 15th here on the Rock, we could see anywhere around 6 cents a litre-IF things keep up.
The last couple of days have been steadily down and that is also reflected at the heating oil level. Heating oils are down by about three cents a litre as of the 6th and, I'm hoping that will keep down until the last business days leading up to the 11th.

More on the 12th as regards to what we'll be seeing then...

Regards,

George

Another Hurricane This way Comes...

A look at the National Hurricane Center's website might give one pause for concern, certainly if you reside anywhere where the storm may land.

I tend to observe what they do to the oil markets at times like this.Lucky for all of us consumers out there, this one isn't headed for the Gulf of Mexico. I am waiting for the excuse come Wednesday next week where the Energy Information Administration might say something like "Imports of crude oil were disrupted last week as a result of the storms on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts."

Interesting as it is, a storm like this one entered into the Gulf of Mexico twice last year and we all payed for it, not that it was necessary mind you. In the after-effects of Katrina and Rita last year, prices spiked to the highest since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970's. Back then, lineups at the pumps were a common sight and with Rita's promise of "damage" we lined up ourselves again. The traders in the oil exchnges also lined up, but for a different reason. They all collected the highest commissions that were earned off our backsides.

We paid for it...

While there was damage to oil infrastructure, inventories didn't dry up, the US government loaned "Big Oil" some of it's strategic reserve and an "imagined" shortfall never happened.

Just to let you oil traders and oil companies know; that your policies of putting oil infrastructure in dangerous places and speculating on the damage that can be caused, is not going un-noticed by the consumer out there and "we are on our toes" looking out for that next excuse you'll be using to reap from the consumer field.
Justified you might say?
I think not...

What have we learned from all this?...

We've learned that "Big Oil" will fall back on any excuse in a co-ordinated attack against our wallets, that "Big Oil" expects us not to re-act, that we had better watch the weather and don't buy property in Florida.

Drop in Heating and Stove Oils Coming...

Just to let you all know that I have the numbers that show for interruption of heating and stove oil pricing here in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Heating and stove oil prices should drop as of Tuesday morning,September 05/06 by some 2.59 cents a litre. If present spot pricing continues, we may even see another slight downwards move in pricing come the 15th.

While not a big lot, this drop comes at the end of the summer driving season when, traditionally, we see prices drop back at the start of the summer season. That didn't happen until today.

Too many international factors exist that are not allowing me to change my forcast for almost 90 cents a litre at peak this coming winter. Factors like continuing Middle East unrest, the Iraq war, Nigeria and the possibility that Iran could use oil as an economic weapon in it's quest to continue with it's nuclear program all are making for an uncertain market.

What may help me change my mind?

A drop in distillate demand like diesels because of an economic slowdown, drop in jet fuel demand or excellent builds in heating oil inventories. Maybe even a little devine intervention here?

It's awfully late for the drop to happen as it is but, we'll take it.

Regards,

George