"The Perfect Storm scenario"

Why prices might even crash...

I know...

Seven days showed a 3.9 cent a litre increase and still a decrease for stove and heating oils. Guess they were close...

It made me sick too, just to look at the pump as I drove by. I didn't need any as I topped it all off the night before...

It's my way of putting the screws to Big Oil before they get to do it to me later in the week when I'm back on "w" for "walk".

But, if the storm in the markets has anything to do with it, we just might see a drop at the pumps before the summer driving season hits and we hit the "expected' spike in prices for the summer.

You shouldn't take for granted everything these professional oil analysts are thinking. You might "get use" to what they say and then you'll have to pay the piper.

And that's the reason for this particular post; because I don't take what they're shoving at me for the truth. Matter of fact, I think there's something that the "investor" is not telling you...

If the refining industry is having such a tough time with their refiner margins and oil is becoming hard to acquire because of price, then it must be obvious to the consumer that they are "purposely" keeping capacity down in order to support the retail price to the consumer, right?

If that is true, and prices have climbed to the point that overall demand is being broken and people start to conserve, then that creates a build in inventories right?

Then the following must be true...

Less demand means less need for refined product which in turn means less refining. That would also mean a drop in demand for the raw crude oil product. We have to note here that crude inventories climbed last week possibly because of part of what we're saying here; that crude simply costs too much to buy by the refiner and inventories were allowed to build in the hope that prices may be impacted...

That means there's evidence of an attempt to support gasoline and heating oil prices by the refiner and Big Oil; a "supported" price...

While the price may indeed be supported, there's not a heck of a lot of return for the investment...

What the markets need to see now, or should I say, the consumer needs to see, is the proof that inventory is building and that demand is being impacted. That may bring down the house of cards that OPEC helped create.

We have already reached a point where Big Oil has hit the Law of Diminishing Returns because of rampant investment in commodities like gasoline and heating oils. consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador have been hard hit this winter with "above normal" heating oil prices. The elderly and those on fixed incomes as well as pensioners, are at the point where they are buying no more.

They now choose food over heat.

I think they like to call it "energy starvation"...

I think that we're going to start to see investors in distillates lose a lot of money...

One can always live in hope...

Regards,

George

Six days now reporting...

Little change expected in predictions

Six days are now in and the data has only changed slightly. Numbers are still showing a decrease for stove oils and an increase to gasoline pricing Wednesday night in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Heating oils and diesels may go the same way as stove oils but the last couple of adjustments showed heating oils increasing moreso than stove oils. That could translate into little change in the heating oil or diesel price.

Stove oils now show an expected decline of 1.46 cents a litre from yesterdays 1.55. Gasoline is showing a steady 3.7 up on a litre for Wednesday...

As an afterthought, I do an awful lot of thinking while I'm at this...

If 1) it's possible for heating and stove oil product to become so expensive that Big Oil just may ruin its own market for the commodity, and

2) We find that people can't keep themselves warm as a result of heating oils being unaffordable and people want to make the switch to electricity, then

3) Obviously we're going to presure our own sources of energy like electricity as the most beneficial next to wood some might say, then we have another problem developing for the short-term future, and here it is...

To me there may be trouble down the line for our supply of electricity, particularly on the island portion of the province. The question has to be asked about the supply-demand balance of electricity if we find a lot of people are going to switch from oil-based products to electricity.

With those thoughts in mind, here's a few questions for you all to ponder...

1)Do we have the capacity on the island portion to handle the increased demand in electricity if people/consumers switch?

2) Why haven't we heard of Labrador residents being covered in the provincial energy plan, particularly on the coast in areas that face electricity generated by diesel generation?

3) Natural gas is being eyed closely as an alternate source of energy again in the United States as heating oil pricing has skyrocketed. Does our government still have plans to ship out our natural gas to places far away rather than supply our own people with it first?

4) If more people are going to fall back on wood, what is the government going to do as regards to placing some constraints on wood harvesting for "personal consumption"?

5) How about forest replantation/silviculture programs for the long term?

I could go on but, I'll leave it at that for now...

regards,

george

Oil keeps climbing, so does gasoline
Consumers to get dinged at the pumps again this week

News release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 22, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador haven’t seen the end of price increases this regulation period as prices for gasoline are expected to take another hit, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Gasoline to increase
“Consumers of gasoline will most likely see another 3.7 cents a litre at the gas pumps this coming Thursday unless there’s something that I don’t know. Five days out of a possible seven show that consumers are going to take it on the chin as they have been doing in other regions of the country as gasoline sets almost daily records in trading,” said Murphy.

Heating and stove oils to decline
“Stove oils show a small decline of 1.5 cents a litre which may be indicating stagnation in the rise of distillates. It may have hit its peak with the end of winter and the continuing bad economic news. Inventories of distillates increased only slightly in last week’s inventory report. Distillate demand along with demand for jet fuels which are used in winter heating oils, are both showing a drop in demand so, these may be the signs that we’ve been waiting for; that prices will soon start to drop for heating commodities. They had better because they’ve become unaffordable to most people now and we’re looking at a record peak for heating and stove oils! Look for prices in heating oils to stall if not decrease.

Reasons for price changes
“Last week saw early interruption in pricing. Supply disruptions, including an attack on a Japanese tanker off the coast of Yemen, lower refiner capacity and draw-downs on both oil and gasoline inventory, continue to impact the price we’re seeing at the pumps again this week. I almost wonder if Big Oil is deliberately trying to cut back on production of refined product in order to control the price. Even though there remains good demand in some aspects of heating oils this past winter for example, refiner capacity remained at a low. That’s also reason that we never saw good builds in gasoline inventory this past winter.

Consumers of heating oil face tough questions
Heating oil consumers have hit a roadblock in pricing. Not only have record prices hit for heating and stove oils, it has also become almost unaffordable for some companies to deliver and some are saying that they can’t deliver anything less than $200 worth of product.
Consumers can not be expected to be held to account for buying contracts if the terms of their contracts have been changed by their company. Some buying arrangements and service/warranty agreements require that consumers have to buy heating and stove oils off that particular company. Consumers are advised to shop around if their company of choice can no longer deliver fuel for less than the stated amount that has been changed by that company.
Government also needs to pursue new retrofit programs that also include assistance in petroleum users switching from petroleum products to electricity or other forms of heating if they so wish. Government has to look at this as a viable alternative as it also is in keeping with helping to lower carbon emissions from houses and other heating/stove oil users.

Budget Day coming
Consumers of petroleum products should pressure their government now in order to pursue tax breaks from petroleum products. Whether it is the pursuit of the removal of taxes off all forms of heat or a break in gasoline taxes, all petroleum products have reached a point where we deserve cuts to taxes applied to petroleum products. Government on both the federal and provincial level has made a huge amount of royalties off oil and we deserve the break.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Not gonna do it...

Numbers tomorrow on more increases to come at the pumps...

Keep an eye to "Gasandoil" tomorrow as I'll have new numbers on where prices will be going.

So far, with only two days out of a possible seven, as prices interrupted last week, I have about three cents a litre on gasoline.

It's a little different for stove oils and that may be painting the way for heating oils and diesels. A slight drop in stove oil numbers of a rough 1.5 cents on a litre.

Short shrift I know, considering it's still a little chilly during the night.Oh well...Big Oil doesn't have to worry about our seniors not being able to afford the heating oils. I guess that's up to the Avalon Mall as "wandering gangs" of seniors are in competition with our younger folk for the spot at the best vido game.

Shame!

See you all in the A.M...

Rate increase coming from Hydro
Government should absorb any further electricity charges to consumers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 17, 2008- Consumers in this province should not have to face the heavy financial burden being placed on them with the prospects of higher electricity bills in the coming weeks.

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are facing a double whammy in higher electricity charges at the same time as getting hit with higher heating and stove oil pricing. To be hit with these costs and get hit with higher electricity costs as a result of higher crude oil pricing seems to be a little asinine in the least, knowing that the province is making huge royalties from offshore oil,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Government should take immediate steps to allow Hydro to absorb the higher crude acquisition costs and insulate the Newfoundland and Labrador consumer from these costs. With close to a billion dollars in the treasury from oil royalties this year, it is entirely within the realm of government to do this. The Newfoundland and Labrador consumer owns Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and should be able to get government to call the shot on this latest increase on their behalf. This time, the government can say ‘no’.

“Labrador residents particularly will be hard hit knowing that the Labrador winter is longer and colder. Electricity users along coastal Labrador, where electricity is generated by diesel, will be particularly hard hit. Government should do the right thing and prevent consumers from paying more as a result of something they have the power to help us avoid. The government should also be taking the concrete steps in getting coastal regions of Labrador wired into the provincial energy plan thusly removing them from wild swings in pricing caused by oil-generation of electricity.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Update: Numbers still show interruption possible

Conception Bay South, NL, April 16, 2008- Numbers here still show for interruption on all major fuels tonight. Numbers are still showing that interruption is possible for gasoline as well as stove oils, a major fuel in the distillate group which also includes diesel and heating oils. I would expect those fuels to follow the way of the stove oil numbers if all holds true.

Gasoline still shows an additional 5.2 cents a litre now, while stove oils are now showing 6.4 cents a litre to come into effect tonight. Heating oils and diesels should also closely follow those numbers.

All numbers are now with six days of data instead of yesterdays five days.

Hope all this helps!

regards,

George

Numbers show fuel price interruption is possible
Considerable hikes to all petroleum products on the way for Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 15, 2008- Consumers in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to be hit with a huge increase to all petroleum products this coming Thursday morning if George Murphy’s numbers are right. The numbers are substantial and could start to prove a bone of contention in this country if they remain high.

How much to expect
“So far this regulation period, we’re looking at five days data that are all showing at least at least a 6.7 cent a litre increase to stove oils and a 5.1 cent a litre increase coming for gasoline. Monday’s market numbers are also up for crude oil which has only enforced those figures. I believe there is a very strong possibility that other commodities like heating oil and diesel will also get to take this hit as they are so closely related to stove oils, being part of the same distillate group of fuels. This morning, crude oil hit a new record of $112.48 a U.S barrel as the U.S dollar continues a slide against other world currencies and that is only enforcing my belief that interruption will happen this coming Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

Consumers could face tough choices
“I don’t think we can predict where this will end now. We have a case where people will start to become energy-starved and will face a bigger problem of affording energy over food. That goes especially for people who are on fixed incomes. What we are witnessing on the markets is an investor’s complete fixation with the money to be made off the petroleum markets and consumers are being faced with some pretty tough choices as a result. If we don’t see a substantial drop-off in spot pricing for heating and stove oils in the next couple of weeks, we will face some serious problems keeping warm next winter and that goes for everyone in the province as some electricity is generated via the burning of petroleum products. This is the time of year when we should be witness to falling heating and stove oil pricing, not increases. It has to break. Prices as high as they are now are not sustainable on anyone’s part! If this trend keeps up we’re looking at the possibility that any heating rebate program just isn’t going to cut it and we’ll have to see government assist people into breaking their dependency on oil-related products.

Reasons for the possible increases
“Oil is up for several reasons. Last week saw considerable draws against U.S inventories, as well as supply disruptions in places such as Nigeria, Mexico and the Middle East. Demand for crude in China is also expected to grow as economic growth is expected to hit 10 per cent for the first quarter of the year.

Canada may to face the tough questions
“I believe that this country is going to have to face the tough question about how we are going to afford to keep ourselves warm if we continue to face high prices for oil-related commodities. If people are no longer going to be able to afford heating oil over food, and farmers begin to invest heavily into energy industry related crops, them we may also face the problem of ever-increasing food pricing. We already are facing mass increases in wheat, corn and other crops on mere speculation. When you start to hit food pricing as other world nations have seen, then we have a serious problem. What is this country prepared to do in the event that we face a continuance of the situation we are witnessing in the world markets now?

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but...

Newfoundland and Labrador consumers will most likely take the hit from the latest round of increases in oil last week but we'll probably not know for sure until tomorrow.

With the first two days of the regulatory period out of the way, stove oils are showing an allowable of 5.03 upwards. That could be pointing the way for heating oils and diesel as well.

Gasoline shows an allowable increase of 3.88 cents and that falls within the 3/10ths of a cent margin for error I use putting the number slightly over the four cents needed for interruption of fuel prices...

I'll know more by Tuesday afternoon so, keep an eye for a posted release and your ears to the media...

Sometimes it just sucks to be on the receiving end of oil doesn't it?

Regards,

George

Latest EIA survey confirms our thinking

Petroleum stocks down on three fronts this week...

The latest report from the Energy Information Administration today seems to confirm our worst fears; that there is a steady decline in inventories of crude and distillate and that we can expect pricing here in Newfoundland and Labrador to remain around the $1.22 to $1.37 range for the better part of the summer.

As a matter of fact, my numbers are also pointing at the figure of $1.30 at summertime peak this coming first week of July before things moderate. That doesn't include outside factors like Hurricane Syndrome.

Numbers in the report are all down again this week while, refiner capacity is at a near historic low of 83 per cent, a level I haven't seen since I started predicting pricing movements.

See the report from the EIA on last weeks oil inventories here:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

Here's the kicker though...

In the report, we also see that gasoline demand is also projected to drop as recession factors and consumer fears kick in. Gasoline demand has been dropping so much so, that it is a mere 3/10ths of a percentage point over last years numbers for the same timeframe.

Distillate demand along with jet fuel usage has also remained flat for the past week compared to last years numbers so, consumers can expect to see prices for heating and stove oils start to drop from here on in.

They better start soon!

If pricing fails to fall now rather than later, there is no doubt that consumers again will be paying new records for heating and stove oils next year possibly making heating oils even more unaffordable than it already is now.

See the highlights report here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/highlite.pdf

In the meantime, don't forget to hit the pumps on the way home tonight. My numbers now show an expected 3.1 cents a litre at the pumps tonight.

You just might want to pass the word along...

Still no relief on the heating front
Heavy commodity investment still forcing prices upwards

News release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 08, 2008- Market conditions are still putting upwards pressure on petroleum commodities and that means ‘prices up’ for gasoline along with stove oils this week, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Continued heavy investment into commodities like heating, stove oils and gasoline is putting upwards pressure on those petroleum products as a hedge against the U.S dollar. We’re also dealing with a huge drop in refiner capacity as refiners turn their attentions towards gasoline as we get out of the winter heating season. All this means that consumers here in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador will likely see increases to all petroleum pricing again this week.

What consumers can expect
“All numbers are based on twelve days data out of a possible fourteen that is used to set pricing. It appears that gasoline will see the bigger increase. Numbers there show a possible 2.8 cent a litre hike at the pumps while stove oils will only see a 3/10ths of a cent hike in price. The stove oil number may be a sign that we’re near the peak in pricing for heating oils as well as investors and refiners turn their attention to gasoline for the run-up to the summer driving season. The actual that may occur with heating and stove oils could be higher with the other days of data unavailable yet, although I don’t think those numbers will be significant to radically change things at this point.

Warning for next winter
While pricing for heating and stove oils are both expected to back off from records in short order, those same numbers have to begin to show a substantive drop between now and the fall if we are to avoid any problems with consumers keeping themselves warm next winter. Right now, heating and stove oil pricing is a record 28 cents a litre higher than last year while gasoline is roughly 7 cents a litre higher for the same timeframe. I would advise government now rather than later, to get rebate and retrofit programs ready to catch those who will need it, and that could be everybody next year if pricing does not fall back to more affordable levels between now and the fall. A rebate of $300 to consumers just will not cut it next time if pricing does not decline.

Time for pressure on the federal government
While the provincial government came through with a rebate program this year, the federal government got off scott-free in aid to consumers of heating products. Why? It is now time for both governments to get together and remove all the taxation components on all forms of heat in this country. Both levels of government are making astronomical amounts of revenue on oil royalties and that should be returned to the Canadian consumer. The pressures put on all related heating commodities is complicated that much more by a tax on a necessity in this country and so far, that pricing outlook may be a bleak one for heating, stove oils and natural gas users next winter. The simple removal of all forms of taxation on all forms of heat would go a long way to providing some relief to consumers.

Early summer gasoline outlook
Market investors and refiners have turned their attention to gasoline as the heating oil season comes to an end. Continued investment in commodities ahead of a dropping U.S dollar, may be enough to keep the pressure up on pricing but our models are still showing a “market reluctance” to drive up pricing to consumers. Recession fears are absorbing some of the upwards pressures right now and, I don’t believe that consumers are getting hit with as big of increases as they could possibly be because of that. Bad economic news has resulted in a fear in the markets that energy could be hit sooner than other commodities like foodstuffs. Bearing that thought in mind, it appears that while we may experience some increases heading into the summer, they will not be as great as the $1.50 a litre predicted by some industry analysts out there. Our model still shows a minimum to maximum possible price of $1.22 to $1.37 at the summer peak in July and, even those numbers show the volatility of the markets. Just the difference between last year and this years spot petroleum numbers shows a $1.30 a litre at the pumps is “attainable” at this point.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Expect no big price changes this week
Contentious gasoline season starts

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 25, 2008 – “Don’t expect to see any large changes to petroleum pricing this week in spite of the drop in crude oil pricing”, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Five out of seven days show a slight decrease of 2/10ths of a cent for heating and stove oils, while gasoline shows only a 2/10ths of a cent increase in pricing over twelve days. Remember that heating-stove oils faced interruption last week and that’s why those numbers are for five days of data.

“While oil traded lower on some disturbing economic news, oil’s related commodities still traded at near record levels. Pricing for heating, stove oils and gasoline all remained high with only slight fluctuations through the last week. Refiner capacity dropped back to a low of below 84% which is a sign that refiners have turned attention to shutdowns for maintenance and the switch to gasoline. Capacity has been measured as being very low in spite of the consumer need for refined product this last winter and it’s almost as if there was a ‘purpose’ to keeping refining ability low.

“It appears that heating-stove oils are starting to lose their focus in the markets as numbers started dropping on the New York Mercantile Exchange this week but, unfortunately, I don’t think it has been enough to start to warrant a significant drop in distillates. More substantive drops in heating-stove oils should be realized over the next couple of weeks. If I were a heating-stove oil user, I would rein back on my purchases and just purchase what is absolutely necessary to get by. What is more important in this equation is that we now have to see a substantive drop back in heating-stove oil numbers over the next few months in order to avoid problems like we continue to see today; traders taking advantage of the fact that they were trading on a necessity and not on gasoline which can be less so.

“Next year, government should develop home retrofit programs as well as offer assistance to consumers who may need the help in switching to different heating sources. Conversion to electricity may be more practical and affordable for some in the long term if heating-stove oils continue to be over-priced to consumers.

“Numbers for gasoline are starting to gain more focus in the markets as of the start of this week and it is a sure sign that traders and investors are losing interest in heating-stove oils as a place to make a buck. They’ve hit a brick wall called ‘spring’. All eyes will be on gasoline as numbers for that fuel are already trading very high for this time of year. If people are a little more conservative in their purchases, they may just be able to help keep a handle on pricing of gasoline for the summer in spite of traders actions. Otherwise, we may see a scenario like we just left with heating oil in the dying weeks of winter. A boost in refiner capacity along with a building of gasoline inventories ahead of the summer driving season may be the consumers only hope.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Heating-stove oils face upwards price interruption
No changes coming to gasoline

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 18, 2008- Consumers of heating-stove oils and possibly diesel fuels will see an upwards spike in prices tomorrow night as numbers for those petroleum products have increased radically this past week. That means that the Petroleum Pricing Office will use its interrupter formula to increase those prices.

“Numbers we have for the first five days of this pricing session are indicative of where we’ll see heating-stove oils head this week. Numbers are showing an allowable of 7.1 cents a litre upwards over those first five days and numbers from the New York Mercantile Exchange continue to trade above the four cent allowable for interruption to occur for Monday and Tuesday. While those two days traded down, we’re still in interrupter territory. The actual increase at the end of the day will be greater than five cents a litre,” said George Murphy.

“Gasoline remains unaffected as those numbers have not seen the huge spikes in pricing on the markets like the distillate group of fuels that includes heating, stove, and jet fuels. That’s probably part reason why we saw some of the major airlines increase fuel surcharges the last few days, Air Canada being another to do it just this week.

“The markets remain volatile with investors forcing upwards the prices for related commodities even though we’re at the end of the heating season. We have record spot pricing for heating oil that ranges in the $3.20 a US gallon mark, a price not seen in the history of trading.

“It is simply unknown why investors and traders continue to invest heavily in a ‘winter’ product. We all know that people can no longer afford to pay in excess of a buck a litre for heating oil product but they soon will be paying that in the immediate St. John’s and Mt. Pearl areas. Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have believed it to be possible. Traders and investors on the MYMEX are showing how irresponsible they are when they invest out of simple ‘desperation”. They have nothing else they can find to make money on in the face of a falling US dollar? The last thing I’d be investing in at this time where there is heavy talk of a recession is any kind of energy based on crude oil.

“Either way you look at it, Big Oil is not going to move any more product with prices moving up. What they have done is drive up the price to a level where heating oils as well as stove oils, are no longer affordable and they have successfully provided their own means of building inventory. People can no longer afford and therefore, cannot buy in the same quantity.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

New data still shows increases to heating and stove oils

Gasoline to drop...

I have some new data to share with you all in the province...Follows from yesterdays post.

New numbers here are still showing an increase coming to heating oil prices as well as those for stove oils, this time for twelve days show an allowable of 1.86 cents per litre. That could mean a possible high selling price of 98.02 cents per litre for heating-stove oils in this area!

Unbelievable!...

Initial projections at the start of the fall season showed numbers anywhere between 85 and 95 cents with a buck a litre possible...

Gasoline shows downwards at 1.9 cents in spite of the record trading price for crude oil. I think that what this shows is that this commodity has been stretched to its limit when it comes to being a toll worthy of investment rather than the US greenback. I think that what we see is the law of diminishing returns kicking in here-you can raise the price but you will still sell less product to make the same revenues...

As a sidenote?...

Nice to see M.J Ervin revise the summer forecast for gasoline pricing but his numbers are still a little too high. He's forecasting summertime prices of $1.20 a litre in the metro areas-I presume he's talking Toronto- with possible spikes of $1.50 in more rural areas.

I feel like we're all caught in a "bid-ask" scenario at times with the Calgary company part of the "ask" side...lol

My models are still showing anywhere between $1.22 and $1.37 a litre for gas in the immediate St.John's area and with my most recent model showing $1.28 a litre at peak.That means that Toronto and it's environs could see anywhere around what they are experiencing right now, around the $1.08 figure...

Keep in mind that this does not include panic scenarios to the markets like-you heard from me first-"Hurricane Syndrome". Otherwise, that could mean spikes to newfound territory in pricing again.

I'm still taking bets that investors are soon going to realise that they can't drive up the price of commodities anymore than what they fel the consumer is willing to pay and that's why, when you mix recesion into the equation, that we'll soon see a "profit-taking selloff" in crude oil.

Hold off on buying any more heating oils for now, if you can do it. My bets are that this is the last of the increases and we'll soon be witness to a slide in heating-stove oil spot pricing.

Any comments, drop me a note or leave one here...

Regards,

George Murphy

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

gasprices@hotmail.com

What's wrong with oil?

I was asked the other day what it is about oil that has attracted so many to invest in it rather than sink money into other things that one would consider "recession-proof".

Present investment in oil is a little disheartening to see to the average consumer but to play folly with my investment plan and put that money to risk on oil instead of other solid things, is a little suicidal in my belief. That's part of the problem that I have with the latest run-up in crude oil pricing for which the US dollar has taken the back seat...

I don't understand how simple rules of economics can be ignored and money invested in a product that will see some sort of decline in usage if the recession talk comes to fruition. If we are indeed, heading towards recession, jobs and energy usage are the first to feel the blow of any slowdown in economic activity. Then why is there such heavy investment in oil?

I've heard every excuse in the book as to the reasons why you and me are going to pay at the pumps for investors folly but, is that any reason to become a spark that will aid in causing a recession at the same time? When will the spark come that will "start" the slowdown on demand and cause pricing to slip again? If there is recession then high prices for crude oil and their related commodities will surely be the reason for it. That, and George Bush's entry into Iraq... 17 billion in the war now, and counting.Is there any other reason for it?

By the way...

I still have only eight days data out of a possible fourteen that still shows a slight drop in gasoline pricing (2.3 a litre) and a slight increase in heating-stove oil numbers (1.5 a litre). Both modest numbers on already high prices should also be a warning for the oil investor out there: you're already starting to deal with the laws of diminishing returns.

I'm betting my money on the inevitable decline in crude in the next few months if the trend of recession continues. I would suggest to you people who have unknowingly invested in oil through your pension palns to get in touch and ask questions about your investors "investment"...It is, after all, your money...

Possible downwards interruption in pricing?

Yup...

You read it right...

Seems that the first two days of this pricing session are pointing down and that means that, if it keeps up for the next couple of days, there is a liklihood that we'll see a drop downwards in gasoline and heating oil pricing...

Numbers on gasoline for the first two days show almost 4.7 cents a litre down waith taxes in while heating and stove oils are perilously close to the four cents needed to see them drop as early as this coming Thursday.

Stay tuned as I'll have more this coming Tuesday.In the meantime, try to buy as little as is needed.

George Murphy
gasprices@hotmail.com

Consumers to expect another hit at the pumps

Media release

St. John’s, NL, February 26, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another increase to heating, stove oils and gasoline prices before they see any mitigation in pricing, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What consumers will see
“Consumers can expect to see another 3.43 cents a litre to heating-stove oil prices and another 3.1 cents per litre on gasoline this coming Thursday, that’s with five days out of a possible seven days reporting. Consumers of heating and stove oils should gear themselves to making this last fill-up of product stretch itself out as long as possible with the hope that the markets focus will drop from heating-stove oil product. Hopefully, we will see a steadying out of prices there and some moderation in gasoline before the summer driving season hits,” said Murphy.

Why another increase?
“Heavy investment in commodities with the U.S dollars continued weakness along with varying international concerns continues to play heavy in the markets. The possibilities of another U.S interest rate cut along with recession fears, has led to a heavy investment in commodities like heating, gasoline and crude oils.

“OPEC continues to rattle their sabers over the possibility of production cuts even though the price of oil reached $100.34 U.S a barrel. President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez says that $100 U.S per barrel is a ‘fair’ price and should be sustained while other OPEC countries fear that oil could drop in price should a recession become a reality. OPEC will meet March 5th to discuss the possibility of a production cut to avoid any drop in oil pricing.

“The possibility of supply disruptions continues to wreak havoc to oil prices and consumer concerns. Ongoing violence in Nigeria along with Turkey’s invasion of Northern Iraq where the Turkish army is attempting to put to rest the Kurdish problem figure heavy in the equation. Ongoing possibilities of supply disruptions remain in these two areas where some 4.2 million barrels of supply could possibly be disrupted should violence spread to oil-related facilities

Summer pricing
Should there be no moderation in spot pricing and historical difference between year-ago pricing trend continues as is, it could prove to be the most expensive summer driving season on record, barring the entrance of the ‘Hurricane Syndrome’ effect. Historical spots remain very high as compare to last year and, if the markets leave unchecked, will result in new record pricing for gasoline. So far, that trend shows that we could pay upwards of $1.37 a litre for gasoline in the immediate St. John’s-Mt. Pearl area. That means even higher pricing for other areas of the province where, in Labrador for example, consumers could pay upwards of $1.50 per litre for gasoline. While a remote possibility right now the difference between last years numbers and this years, are a little disconcerting.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member My blog: www.gasandoil.blogspot.com
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Still projecting increases across the board

Update

February 19, 2008- Numbers are still showing that consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador along with the rest of North America, will be hit with increases to all consumer petroleum products. Consumers here can expect the pounding to begin this coming Thursday morning so, the word is to get to the pumps by midnight Wednesday.

Five days out of a possible seven needed for interruption to fuel prices show an allowable of 5.2 cents a litre increase while, heating-stove oils are showing 3.75 cents a litre up.Allowing for my 3/10ths of a cent margin of error, expect those fuels to increace as well. The Public Utilities Board allows a four cent a litre movement up or down, before they will interrupt pricing.

According to what I have,that will be done early on all fuels I monitor.

Whether you blame OPEC for thinking they'll have to cut back production, the traders on the New York Mercantile Exhange for seeing an opportunity to make a buck or a refinery fire in Texas, expect that Big Oil will be turning the thumb-screws to you shortly...

More tomorrow as another day's data will be available!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Get to the pumps before Thursday

Call your heating oil guy too...

I'll have more on this tomorrow around this time but, from the looks of things, Newfoundland and Labrador consumers will be taking a hit at the pumps and at the heating-stove oil truck level this coming Thursday, February 21st.

Numbers I have from the last adjustment just last week, show an average of 66.06 a litre for heating-stove oils and an average of 59.43 a litre for gasoline.

Trouble with this is that numbers after last Tuesdays set average are all well over those.Each fuel is showing in excess of four cents a litre up and, in some cases, more than the allowable needed to warrant interruption to current fuel pricing.

I'll have more in a posted news release on what you might expect to see tomorrow, but after Hugo Chavez's little tirade last week along with a reported refinery fire in Texas this morning and heavy investment in oil and related commodities over the past week, it was bound to happen.

What does this mean to summer pricing?

Gas is supposed to drop during the winter and the increase in heating-stove oils at this time of the year means that we'll have that much more to face dollar-wise next fall.

You just get the feeling that you're going to have less to spend over the next little while...

Some relief coming at the pumps
Nigeria and Venezuela situation stymies price drops

News release

St. John’s, NL, February 12, 2008- Consumers can expect to see some modest drops in pricing for some fuel products but they aren’t as great as what would have happened if the situation in South America didn’t have to blow in.

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see close to 2.0 cents a litre down on gasoline and a rough 1.3 cents a litre down on heating and stove oils this coming Thursday, that’s with twelve days data out of a possible fourteen days available at press time,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“We were initially looking at something greater than 2.5 cents a litre down on gas with a larger than expected decrease up to Thursday of last week but the ongoing war of words between Hugo Chavez and the United States and an ensuing court case between Venezuela and Big Oil caused a huge increase in oil prices. That, in turn, drove up the related prices for their refined commodities.

“The Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, nationalized some major oil fields belonging to Exxon Mobil some time ago. Exxon Mobil has since moved to place a freeze on the assets of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets and Chavez has promised an economic war if the courts agree with the move. Chavez has promised to disrupt exports of crude to the United States, the fourth largest importer of Venezuelan oil products.

“It’s a unique problem that the markets face here. Most of the oil refineries that can refine Venezuelan products are situated in the United States. Chavez may just be trying to raise his own popularity at home but it’s a funny way of doing things. If he fails to export products and raise revenue for his country, he will have to curtail spending. Funny thing here also is that Venezuelan exports amounted to almost 1.75 million barrels per day of crude to the United States so he’s potentially forcing the United States to look elsewhere for more stable supplies of crude oil. There may be opportunities here for other major oil producers to capitalize on his actions. Either way, it’s a “Catch-22” and consumers will end up paying for his folly or his own people will.

“In the meantime, Nigerian exports continue to suffer in the face of an ongoing “civil war” in the area that has led to a disruption of almost 500,000 barrels of exports of crude oil to the west. The latest actions involved rebels attacking a Nigerian naval vessel that was performing escort for an oil company staff vessel. One sailor died in that attack.

“A full blow-up of violence in the major oil production region will have an adverse cost to consumers and to oil pricing. Oil prices have increased almost four dollars U.S a barrel since Thursday afternoon’s market close while spot prices for gasoline and heating/stove oils have increased along with it.

“We are still well above the numbers for last year for the same timeframe. Gasoline is now 11 cents above while heating/stove oils are 16 cents above year-ago levels. The implications of those numbers should be obvious.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Corporate oil company profits

Bordering on perversion?

I don't think anyone should be surprised that Big Oil is reporting the largest ever profits for any company in U.S history. What should be disturbing though, is how much of that came at the expense of consumers.

Today, we have heard that the Canadian division of Exxon/Mobil has profited by almost 880 million dollars over the last quarter while, the parent company has captured nearly 40 billion dollars.

Great for the shareholders and, no doubt, the answer from Big Oil to the "wonderment" will be "If you want to see anything in your pocket, you should invest in your friendly, neighbourhood oil company".

Great response fellas!..

I have a problem, however...

Consumers in this country are paying an exhuberant amount of money for things like heating oil and gasoline which, I may add, is now in a "non-demand" season. The consumers in this country, particularly here in Newfoundland and Labrador, have faced the highest price for heating oil since I have been keeping records; for some ten years now, and the next heating season, barring a recession, promises more in store...

Big Oil doesn't have a problem with that...

The government of the province is left to deal with the problem and give relief to consumers who can't afford to heat themselves in what is being seen as a necessity of life. These corporate profits, in essence, have come off the backs of you and me twice, once in the form of taxation and secondly in the fact that our government has had to give something back to those in the east left to freeze in the cold-let alone the rest of the country.

Keeping in mind that the New York Mercantile Exchange deals with oil, gas, and heating oils on a day to day basis, we are yet to have the explanation as to why oil itself has tripled in prices since the heady days of 2004. Incomes have seen scant growth in the past few years and energy prices themselves have come to motor up any rate of inflation being themselves almost 300% up in costs to the consumer.

Keep in mind also that not all oil is bought at the West Texas Intermediate price that you see in the news. Most of that stuff you're burning right now comes in from places where their sell price is much lower than that we all see.

It's just that this "dark and dirty" stuff we need so badly is more representative of oil company profits than we deem...

At mine and your expense, those profits are bordering on perversion...

Regards,

George

Break at the pumps coming
Heating and stove oils also expected to drop

Media release

St. John’s, NL, January 29, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some slight downwards adjustments in all major petroleum groups this week, that’s according to the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“From the look of the numbers, consumers can expect to see a decrease of three cents per litre on gasoline and 2.49 cents down on stove oils. The stove oil number will probably be a good indicator of where heating oils will also be going. I also expect to see gasoline drop further than what I have recorded for the last twelve days because of the disparity we saw in the last adjustment session. I think consumers should see somewhere in the area of four cents a litre down on gasoline just to keep up with what has happened in other markets last week,” said George Murphy, researcher for the group.

“Last adjustment period we saw the PUB allow an increase of 1.3 cents per litre while our numbers showed a 1.3 cent a litre drop. I’m expecting the PUB to come out with new numbers that allow for a larger than expected drop from the numbers that I have just so they can “catch up” to what has happened in the markets and match the reality that was reflected in the conditions at the time of last adjustment

“A good build in gasoline and crude oil stocks last week helped in the downwards turn in crude prices. That and a few words of warning about a possible start to a recession both impacted crude and related commodity prices. People are getting a little warning out there that high energy prices have started to impact economies and personal finances.

“The International Energy Agency has also lowered its expectations of energy demand saying that they expect crude oil demand to falter somewhat in the coming weeks. That has also played into the markets. Some rumblings of a possible economic slowdown are also coming from China which has the world’s fastest rising economy.

“Heating oil prices should also feel the effect of the downwards pressures being felt on jet fuels. Demand for jet fuels has dropped, ranging some four per cent below year ago levels. Hopefully, the numbers will reflect the trend in jet fuels and consumers can get that advantage in the form of lower heating oil pricing. Heating oil spots are still 19 cents a litre higher than last year for the same timeframe.

“While we are still well down in crude inventories as compared to last year, gasolines are almost at “year ago” levels. Demand there has steadied at a rough one per cent over the same timeframe last year. The problem here is that the average spot price for gasoline still remains some 17 cents a litre higher than the same time last year. That should bring cause for summer pricing concerns if we don’t see higher builds in inventories or a drop in winter demand.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Gas to drop while heating and stove oils increase
Markets eye Northern Iraq

Media release

St. John’s, NL, December 18, 2007- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight drop in gasoline prices this coming Thursday ahead of the long drive home, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“With thirteen days out of a possible fourteen days of data on hand, there’s enough there to call the shot on how pricing will look this coming Thursday. It looks like gas prices will drop by 1.3 cents a litre while heating and stove oils will likely increase by somewhere close to one cent a litre,” said Murphy.

“Inventories of heating oil remain a concern while we are into the January and February buying contracts. We still have not seen substantial increases in inventories even though refiner capacity has picked up slightly. Cold and stormy weather across North America has also impacted demand numbers.

“The situation in Northern Iraq is playing heavily into the markets today as Turkish forces have invaded some parts of Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels. There is a fear in the markets that oil exports from Northern Iraq will face possible disruptions and that has played into the markets significantly. We may see slightly larger increase in heating and stove oils and a lessening of the gasoline numbers as a result. Before the news today, we were relatively stable price wise.”

The Public utilities Board will set prices for fuels this coming Thursday morning.


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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Government announces details of home heating rebate
Some people left out

News release

St. John’s, NL, December 6, 2007- Government has announced details of the home heating rebate that will be given out this year but, some people will not be able to avail of the program in spite of increased revenues from oil reources.

“I feel that government missed out on an opportunity to allow all Newfoundland and Labradorians to benefit from rising government revenues from increased offshore oil revenues. Everyone, regardless of income, should have been able to get government assistance to pay for the rising costs of heating. Government will still benefit from record prices in spite of this rebate,” said George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The government of New Brunswick is talking about increasing taxes in their province to recoup revenue from the federal government dropping part of its portion of the HST. If they succeed in increasing the provincial take there, the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has to follow suit and increase taxes on heat as well. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has to actively look at leaving the HST agreement it signed back in 1997 in order to remove all taxes on heat or enter into negotiations with the other signatories to the agreement in order to revise the agreement. The province needs to start to express ‘fiscal independence’ and call our own shot. There never should have been taxes applied to necessities like heat.

“I am pleased that the income threshold has increased, but the threshold they have set still bars anyone with marginal incomes close to the cutoff point. If I am a two income household that collectively makes $41,000.00, then my household is not eligible unless I meet some of the special parameters set out. The rebate should cover everyone and not just a select few. There are still going to be consumers out there falling between the cracks. The rebate gets less with income exceeding $35,000.00 and cuts off at $40,000.00. The rebate should have been given to everyone regardless of income. The least that government should do here is to allow the applications from people who are close to the threshold as they may have special circumstances that are slightly outside the requirements of the rebate program. All residents, regardless of income, should have been able to benefit from increased oil revenues.

“We are still awaiting the announcement of a home retrofit program to allow grants to people to increase the energy efficiency of their homes and help them reign in rising energy costs. Again, while the government has made untold millions in increasing oil revenues, it has not yet made available a new home retrofit program that is cost effective and beneficial to the environment.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Slight drop in distillates coming
Gasoline to remain little changed

News release

St. John’s, NL, December 4, 2007- Consumers of distillates like stove oils, heating and diesel may be set to see a slight downwards adjustment in prices this coming Thursday, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The loss in dollar value against the U.S greenback did exactly what we had feared would happen; absorb some of the drop in spot pricing of distillates and help support prices rather than see it go into freefall,” Murphy said. “The price of the refined product only lost a clear three cents since last adjustment November 28, 2007 when prices were interrupted. The U.S markets saw a loss of almost twelve cents a gallon off heating oil futures pricing this last week.

“While coming close to a four cent interruption last week, we’ve watched spots fall again in the second week bringing us to a ‘break even point” where there may be very little change to gasoline pricing, up or down. With twelve out of a possible fourteen days of data, gasoline shows an increase of 4/10ths of a cent while heating and stove oils will drop by three cents. If numbers hold steady for the next two business days, I expect there to be little change from those numbers though gasoline will be closer to a zero change.

“Heating oil spot pricing remains fourteen cents a litre higher than the same time last year (December 04/06) while gasoline spots are now nine cents a litre higher. While OPEC may have been talking about the possibility of an increase in production at its next meeting today, I don’t expect there to be positive news on that front. A lot of OPEC members like Libya aren’t ready to increase output. Consumers have another two or three months left to ride out this winter storm in heating and stove oils while, for gasoline users, a storm may be just developing.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Interrupter criteria met for stove oils
Premier asked to “Expedite” rebate and retrofit programs

News release

St. John’s, NL, November 28, 2007- Numbers are showing that the Petroleum Pricing Office will be forced to bump up pricing to consumers of stove oils and possibly heating oils early Thursday as the price for those important consumer petroleum products continues to rise.

“With six out a possible seven days, I have numbers that warrant a five cent a litre increase on stove oils. Heating oil being also part of the same distillate group will probably see a substantial increase also. Jet fuel and #2 heating oil are blended during the winter months as jet is used as an antifreeze agent. Jet fuel has traded very high, much higher than stove oils the past two weeks or so. It’s probably inevitable that heating oils will also take a shot upwards,” Murphy said. “Gasoline numbers show a 3.3 cent a litre increase so far but that won’t happen this Thursday as the criteria for interruption weren’t met for that fuel”

“That would make our high price in the St. John’s area for heating oil hit 92.47 cents a litre, shattering last years record. The fact that we are now in a downturn with the Canadian dollar, losing value against its U.S counterpart and that has only aggravated the problem. We predicted that this would happen and come back to complicate things for consumers. If the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates later this week, it will only aggravate it further.

“There’s one word for government in all this. ‘Expedite!’ As consumers, we have waited long enough for an announcement on a heating and rebate program that will include everyone. We warned the government to get ready to have their program in place last July and we’re still waiting. When the next increase in price hits, we’ll be waiting still.”

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Pricing continues to increase
Numbers show fuel prices increasing this Thursday

News release

St. John’s, NL, November 20, 2007- Fuel prices are set to increase to consumers this coming Thursday and the news may not get any better for the summer driving season, that’s if the numbers hold as they are. While consumers will suffer this winter keeping warm , they will also be hit keeping cool this coming summer.

“The news is not good as we head into winter. Record spot pricing is being reflected in the markets and that means consumers are going to be paying more for important petrol products for the foreseeable future,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “There’s even the hint of bad news for the summer if the numbers keep up the way they have been on gasoline.”

Thursday price change
“With twelve days out of a possible fourteen to go on, we’re looking at 2.4 cents per litre up on stove oils and 3.0 cents up on gasoline for this coming Thursday. Heating oil numbers are now reflected by a 25/75 mix of heating and jet fuels. The heating number is showing 2.4 cents but, once again, 25 per cent of that is only used. I do not have numbers for jet fuel so, being a distillate also, I can only tell the consumers that those numbers are also up. They should take that as bad news. Today, oil is trading at $98 per barrel so; I don’t expect any lower numbers for the other two days of data.
We're witnessing the opposite effect with the Canadian dollar as well with it losing ground against its US counterpart.What was once an insulating effect is slowly coming back to burn consumers.We've lost five cents there in less than two weeks of measurement. It is essentially, the main reason we're looking at a rough three cents on everything.

Why the numbers are going up
Several reasons are being cited for the next round of increases that we are going to see, and probably will see, in the coming weeks.
The U.S dollars fall against other world currencies has led investors to drive up the cost of oil. While the U.S dollar is seen as a bad investment, they want to put money into other commodities like oil that have a little more security behind them. That’s another reason for the skyrocketing costs of gold. Even OPEC has discussed changing from the U.S dollar and that remains a bone of contention with some OPEC members who disagree with any future change in how oil is measured. Longtime enemies of the U.S, namely Iran and Venezuela, are soliciting for a change from the U.S measurement.

Other reasons for rising costs
. Continuing low refiner capacity. While there have been very modest builds in crude oil and gasoline inventories, there have been draw-downs on distillate inventories. Heating oil costs have risen as a result and the coming winter season has attracted investors there.
· Ongoing world violence. Kind of self explanatory but, we’ve been dealing with this problem for ages now. It’s still there and won’t go away. The problems remain in Northern Iraq remain and Turkey remains keyed to invade the region and pacify the Kurdish population. There remains a supply disruption possibility.
· No boost in OPEC production. OPEC announced last week that it had formally “lost control of pricing of oil product” but it would not be stepping up production of oil as it feels that the “market remains well supplied” with product. The markets reacted by trading up on oil.

Historic numbers
“At this same time last year, November 17/06, spot prices for heating and stove oils were recorded at 48.86 cents a litre. Gasoline spot was recorded at 47.39 cents a litre. This year those numbers are 66.10 cents for heating/stove and 62.53 cents for gasoline. That’s a 17 cent a litre disparity for heating/stove oils and 15 cents for gasoline. I don’t think I have to point out the implications of higher spots this year over last year.

Early summer forecast
“If we don’t see gasoline numbers come down before the spring hits, then we may see new record prices for gasoline again this coming summer. Add that to the fact that the U.S dollar is close to or, almost at par with the Canadian dollar, and we have a potential hit to our tourism industry. It’s going to be a little harder getting tourists from the U.S to drive up for a visit. Is there another tourism initiative in the works to help operators who will need the extra help in attracting visitors?

No announcement of rebate programs
“We’re still waiting for some kind of word from government on any heating rebate or retrofit programming for this year. While consumers are dealing with high pricing at an early stage of the season, those costs are reflective of last February. We still have a long time to go before we hit the winter peak in pricing. We need to make sure that all consumers are helped out with one of the most costly winters in recent memory. All Newfoundland and Labradorians, as well as Canadians, will be paying much higher prices this coming winter and all of them will need help.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Numbers show prices increasing
Prices well ahead of last year
News release

St. John’s, NL, October 23, 2007 – Increases in heating, stove oils as well as gasoline are to be expected in the coming days but, although the numbers in the increases are small, they are hiding an underlying truth; That consumers are continuing to be hurt by increasing prices.

“For twelve days out of a possible fourteen days, heating and stove oils are showing an increase of 9/10ths of a cent while gasoline is showing an increase of 1.2 cents a litre,” that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “It’s not a huge increase but it still is indicative of the prediction last week that we’ve hit the low point in spots and that prices would be moving up to the consumer.

“The numbers for this year are well ahead of last year. Heating and stove oil spot prices are now 12 cents a litre higher for the same time period while gasoline spots are that same 12 cents higher. The basic cost of heating and stove oils would now be unaffordable for lower income earners if it weren’t for one fact; the performance of the Canadian dollar. Consumers would be paying upwards of another 11 cents a litre more than what they are seeing now if the dollar had to hold the same value as last year. Any slide in the dollar now could cost the consumer this winter.

“The international situation remains volatile. If Turkey invades the Kurdish territories in Northern Iraq, we could see a disruption in crude supply. A lot of that comes to the US eastern seaboard, Eastern Canada and Europe. While there might be an ample supply right now, the promise of violence in a chief export area of Turkey may possibly turn into a worldwide supply disruption and that means rising pricing of all petroleum products. We still caution the consumer to fill the heating oil tanks in case we run into the world situation in the coming days.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

gasprices@hotmail.com

Consider filling the home heating tank
International events warrant consumer warning

News release

St. John’s, Newfoundland, October 15, 2007 – International events are prompting a warning from the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices to fill the home heating oil tanks. George Murphy is sounding the alarm as ongoing violence is putting upwards pressure on pricing of all petroleum products.

“The last few days on the international scene is telling me that we have bottomed out on any further decreases in pricing of heating and stove oil product. Draws on inventory in the United States along with the threats of more violence in Turkey and northern Iraq have led to an increase in all distillate products over the last couple of business days. That news is grim as renewed violence in northern Iraq along the Turkish border could possibly disrupt oil exports to the coast of Turkey”, said Murphy.

“The port of Ceyhan, Turkey handles most Iraq exports that come from the north of Iraq. The Mediterranean town handles almost 1.6 million barrels in exports in a day to North America and Europe and, if that is disrupted because of any possible outbreak of violence in Northern Turkey and Iraq, then we may see a huge increase in oil pricing. That momentum is continuing on the markets today. If all-out war breaks out between Turkey and the Kurds of Northern Iraq, it may be a case of “force majeure” in the markets.

“While prices are not showing an increase at this time, the rise in spot pricing is noticeable today and any further increase in spots in the next few days because of further violence or draws on inventory, may possibly signal increases at the next adjustment period. That and the onset of colder weather will mean we have already bottomed out in pricing and we’re looking at an upswing and rise from here on.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Heating oil continues to rise
Could be a long cold winter ahead

News release

St. John’s, NL, September 25, 2007- Consumers could face a long and cold winter this year if the Canadian dollar starts to falter in it’s rise against the US dollar. Heating oil spot prices are continuing to rise, in spite of gains that the Canadian dollar has made against the United States dollar, and that could prove to set the conditions for a long, cold winter for some, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Canadian dollar parity
“I’ve been watching the rise of the Canadian dollar and, while it may be good that it has increased and capped the rise in spot prices, any slip in the dollar will cost Canadian consumers dearly. We’re already looking at record spot prices for heating and stove oils for this same time as other years. Heating and stove oil spots range some 7 cents a litre higher than last year. We have yet to get into refinery maintenance season when refineries shut down to switch over to production of heating oils and other distillates. That will cause a draw against available inventory and possibly increase the product in value.

Thursday’s price adjustments
“Heating and stove oils are predicted to rise by close to 1.65 cents a litre this Thursday as the Petroleum Pricing Office will set new pricing for all petroleum products and gasoline is predicted to increase by close on 7/10ths of a cent per litre. That’s with thirteen days out of a possible fourteen reporting. We’ll have the true numbers tomorrow but there are indicators of where these numbers will head this week.

The Labrador effect
“Another fear is that we may end up seeing Labrador consumers pay record amounts for heating oil if spot pricing remains high for the next month and pricing gets locked in for the winter because of ice conditions. Labradorians could be looking at record pricing for heat. Traditionally, the movement of ice affects the flow of product into that region and petroleum products pricing is frozen until the spring when shipping season to Labrador is started again.

Effects of the rising dollar on consumers
“Consumers should be fearful at this juncture of the dollars’ rise because any slippage will mean the meteoric rise in spot pricing for product. Just to give everyone the sense of what could happen: If we were dealing with the dollar at the level it was two years ago, we would be looking at close to a dollar a litre for heating oils. If there is any time that the government should be supporting the dollar, it is at this juncture. Any collapse in the dollar now would be economically devastating to the consumer.

Government and taxation
“For a long time now, consumers have expressed their feelings of taxation levels on heat and it is this direct measure that government can address the rising costs of heat through the removal of all taxes off a basic necessity of life. Heat itself, may quickly become a health concern for a lot of people this winter should the dollar fall in value or spot pricing continue to rise.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

The ramifications of $100 a barrel oil
Consumers and industry will take a huge hit

News release

St. John’s, NL, September 19, 2007 – Rising oil prices will have detrimental effects on consumers and industry if oil prices hit the $100 per barrel mark by the New Year, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.

“Already, I am noticing that heating oil pricing is 10 cents a litre higher than the same point last year and that could prove to be very costly to consumers this coming winter as pricing has continued to rise along with the price of a barrel of oil,” said Murphy. “If you haven’t heard of unaffordable heating oil pricing, it’s because we haven’t gotten into the winter heating season quite yet.”

“Spot pricing for all distillate fuels is up considerably and that could lead to higher transportation costs as we get further into the distillate season. We could become witness to increases in fuel costs to move goods and services and that means inflationary pricing to the average consumer. Market analysts are already predicting only a slight retreat in oil prices before we see $100 a barrel for oil. The oil industry will try to recoup those costs and that will mean higher pricing for all refined products including heating, stove, diesel and gasoline pricing.

“The only thing that is preventing a very sharp increase in pricing instead of the moderate increases we have been experiencing is the rise of the Canadian dollar against its US counterpart. If this were two years ago, we’d be looking at an added 25 cents onto these prices as they stand now. The ramifications of any slip in the Canadian dollar now are stark and staring at the consumer and industry too. A dollar a litre for heating fuel would be disastrous to the consumer out there.

“Government, on both levels, is going to have to look at a complete removal of the tax on heat as a measure to keep consumers warm this winter. I don’t think it’s good enough to see rebate programs put in place to take care of just a few people. We all are going to have to pick up the rising costs for higher oil so, why not make it across the board and country-wide?. Rising oil pricing may be good for the government treasury but when do we get our share?

“The fact that there may be consumers out there who will not be able to afford heating fuels this winter is fast becoming both a growing health concern and a financial burden to a lot of families. Industry, particularly the transportation sectors and the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery, will have to be able to adapt and deal with rising fuel costs as well as high dollar value and transportation issues. The rising costs of oil to electrical companies that generate electricity by burning oil will also have to recoup costs from the consumer as well. What are the side-effects of that on the people of Labrador?

“It’s still a little early to predict where this winters heating/stove oil season will be going this year but, so far, it does not look good. With pricing for heating oils already ten cents a litre higher than the same time last year and the promise of a rising oil price, the ramifications are obvious. In spite of recent builds in distillate inventories ahead of refinery maintenance season, there is a distinct possibility this time around that we could see pricing well over last years numbers. The only thing that could stop what will happen is recession and, I’m thinking we’re close to the edge of that now.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

gasprices@hotmail.com

Gasoline prices to stay steady
Heating and stove oils to increase

News release

St. John’s, NL, September 11, 2007 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will not see any major increase in gasoline pricing but users of heating and stove oils are advised to get ready for increases. The Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is advising home owners and users of distillates like heating and stove oils to get ready for increases in their respective products.

“Gasoline numbers are showing a modest two tenths of a cent increase while heating and stove oil users will be looking at close to 2.3 cents a litre up this coming Thursday morning. Those numbers are with twelve out of fourteen available data days,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“This is the time of year where the focus has switched from gasoline to users of distillates like heating and stove oils. Even jet fuels are showing added demand and that may add to future increases as that fuel is added as an antifreeze agent during winter months. We’re advising consumers to shop around this heating season. Some companies offer insurances and maintenance programs that rival other companies but pricing of heating and stove oils can vary greatly and that’s where the consumer can win big.

“Gasoline spots are showing a difference of eight cents a litre against last year while heating/stove oil numbers are six cents a litre higher. That could mean trouble if we don’t see a build in distillates before the weather turns colder. I think that consumers are probably a little more concerned with the costs of heat as heat is a health concern unlike gasoline.

***Note to readers: As of the 12th, I have numbers that show an allowable increase in heating and stove oils by 2.62 cents a litre while gasoline shows an allowable increase of 15/100ths of a cent, not including the tax component.That's based on 14 out of the possible 14 busines days that are available. Unknown as to why the Public Utilities Board numbers are so far out of whack with mine.

I'll still stand by mine however!

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Editors: Please note the change in contact information.

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/MemberConsumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

gasprices@hotmail.com

Hurricane Dean spares the Gulf-So far

News release

St. John's, NL, August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean has spared consumers in most areas the inconvenience of skyrocketting prices as it hit the Yucatan Peninsula earlier this morning. Early last week, projections from the National Hurricane center showed Dean making a direct track to the Gulf of Mexico and its crude production and refining facilities.

"We're lucky in some aspects here that Dean managed to turn to a more direct westerly direction rather than hit the chief production and refining centers on the Texas-Louisianna border. Last week showed a different scenario when Dean was foreecast to throw itself on the US gulf coast," said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"We expected that spot pricing would have risen to unbearable levels as they did with Katrina had the hurricane hit directly in the center of the gulf coast but that didn't happen. While some production on the Mexico side of the Gulf may occur, that shouldn't do anything major to gasoline pricing. We may likely see an increase to crude as overall Mexican production will be affected but that shouldn't bight into consumers pocketbooks.

"In Newfoundland and Labrador where pricing is regulated, numbers show only a 3 cent a litre allowable at the pump level and that is expected to moderate somewhat now that Dean has done a complete swing-around in direction.Already, spots have begun to decline again and the likelihood of any "early interruption" in pricing has passed with that. Four cents is needed for any interruption in pricing to occur and that's not going to happen now, according to the numbers I have.

"We're all just praying now that there is going to be no loss of life in Mexico as this brutal storm passes over the Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is forecast to regain some strength as it re-enters the Gulf sometime late today. Crude oil production has been halted at Cantarell, the worlds third largest field in the world as a result of Dean's track and some 14,000 oil workers have been evacuated."

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

(709)685-6186 cellular

gasprices@hotmail.com

Something wicked this trading day comes

Guess what?..

While you slept last night, a concerted effort to increase spot pricing for gasoline occurred in the markets. Gasoline spots increased by more than 20 cents a US gallon.

That's about 5.5 cents a litre to Canadian consumers translated at the pumps.

Yes...Hurricane Syndrome has set in and there's not a darn thing to be done about it on this side of the border.

Consumers should now be aware that we have entered that "revered" time of the year where corporate rape of consumers occurs on a whim. Data from the National Hurricane Center in the US indicates today that tropical depression number four, soon to be named Dean if it reaches hurricane status, will likely become a tropical storm later today.

Consumers would be advised to keep the tanks filed up but practise conservation methods while these storms are around. When an actual storm is more than likely to damage any oil production or refining facility, the consumer is better off waiting the economic storm out and go with what they already have in the tank. Hoarding the stuff only caused undue grief to other consumers and sucessfully drives up the price of gasoline and someone besides youmakes a fortune.

So, while these storms are around this hurricane season, take some of this practcal advice and help take a financial bite out of the people who like to take a financial bite out of you. If a storm hits, you should have had full tanks already. Buying after the storm hits only puts bigger dollars out in the other fella's pockets.

Regards,

George Murphy