Oh well...No suprise that prices didn't drop

I'm irked...

Maybe I should just keep quiet every time I get a way of thinking and keep my thoughts to myself. No suprise that I'm a little disappointed though but in hopeful expectations for next weeks price setting nonetheless.

After Tuesday, I thought that the numbers would show those for interruption.

Didn't happen...

Numbers here showed a good start to a price drop but, for some reason, and I'm still looking into it, the drop showed a "stall" and the numbers averaged out to be 3.77 cents a litre down, just a mere 23/100ths away from the required four cents a litre for interruption to occur. Another day and things would have kicked in.

It was painful to watch the numbers come up on the calculator!

So, we have to wait for the regular price setting fornext week it seems because we know that the Ultramars, ESSO's, Irvings and North Atlantics aren't going to drop prices ahead of time on their own!

Use it sparingly for the next six days anyway. So far, with Wednesday data in, numbers are now showing close on a nickel down at the pumps. If oil continues to drop in the days leading up to the 14th, then the drop at the pumps could be significantly more.

Regards,

George

Is there enough volatility in the markets this week?

Those of you watching the markets this week are probably asking the same question this week, wondering if consumers here in the province will see a drop in fuel pricing: Is there enough volatility in the markets right now, to warrant a drop in prices?

This week shows a drop of almost seven bucks a barrel US with corresponding spot prices dropping by nearly five cents on a litre after yesterdays market close. While my average for the last pricing session was set at 58.05 cents a litre, that average has touched near three cents after yesterdays market activity. The average for the preceding six days I now have at 55.38 cents a litre, a difference of close to 2.7 cents a litre.

Interruption requires that four cents a litre, up or down, from the previous price setting, are needed for interruption to occur.

That being said, again today, we're looking at gasoline trading down by another two cents a US gallon and that number does not include any market volatility that my numbers do not record.

There is a possibility that gasoline prices may be adjusted downwards after Wednesday night as a result of that, market volatility.

Other fuels like heating oils, stove oils and diesels, are also down but are less than the 2.7 or so that I have for gasoline.

Trouble here is that I also have numbers for the first six days that also shows greater than 3.4 cents a litre down on gasoline, taxes not included.

With oil prices collapsing again in the face of weakening demand and bad economic news, it may be well advised to hold back on any purchases you might want to make in the next day or so, that is, until we see what the Public Utilities Board is going to do this coming Thursday.

Those in other jurisdictions might want to follow the same advice: drops in pricing are on the way!

I'll know more after tonight's numbers come in for Newfoundland and Labrador, so stay tuned!

It's going to be close!

Regards,

George

Drops coming you say?

Might be the first time some of you will be happy with me, at least for the next two weeks.

Sorry I'm posting late as I was working late last night.

Here's what I have, with all the data in. Nothing substantial but it all helps I guess:

• Diesel to drop by 3/10ths of a cent.
• Heating and stove oils to drop by 64/100ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline to drop by 1.5 cents a litre.

No official release on this one this time. What you're looking at is coming for this Thursday morning.

Hope it works out!

Regards,

George

The following is a copy of a letter I sent off to the Prime Ministers office and the Minister of Transport for the Government of Canada on the Marine Atlantic fuel surcharge issue.

Let's see if we can get an answer!

Right Honourable Stephen Harper
Prime Minister
Government of Canada
Office of the Prime Minister
80 Wellington Street
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0A2

Dear Mr. Prime Minister

I am writing to you today to tell you of my concern as regards to Marine Atlantic’s possible application of a round of fuel surcharges on ferry rates and what the Government of Canada can possibly do about it.

During the sailing season of June, 2007 and again in 2008, Marine Atlantic was forced to institute a round of fuel surcharges that were applied to ferry rates and passenger fares to users of the service across the Gulf of St. Lawrence. This caused an undue hardship and an artificial inflation rate, especially to goods and services being used by Newfoundland and Labradoreans. Particularly hard hit was grocery items that were being transported across the Gulf by trucking companies who also recouped their added fuel surcharge expenses crossing the gulf by adding fuel surcharges onto their goods and services entering the province. In turn, these added costs were handed down to the consumer in the form of higher prices for commodities, adding more stress to consumers and businesses here.

While earlier this year (January) fuel surcharges were removed from Marine Atlantic ferry rates, prices for marine type fuels have been increasing from their near record low of last October. Prices for marine type fuels have increased since January when fuel surcharges were removed and have reached a point where Marine Atlantic will be making a decision on adding a fuel surcharge once again to Marine Atlantic ferry rates, again increasing pricing to the end user, the consumer of Newfoundland and Labrador. Today, according to my research, the price of residual fuel oils has surpassed the June, 2007 price by almost thirty per cent, making the possibility of added fuel surcharges almost imminent during the start of the auto tourist user season across the gulf. A decision by the Marine Atlantic board is due shortly on any fuel surcharge addition.


I am writing you to ask you to help Marine Atlantic absorb these costs by adding additional funding to the Marine Atlantic budget as a measure to help the Newfoundland and Labrador consumer avoid seeing an added, artificial inflation rate added to consumables as a result of added fuel costs.

This is possible for the Government of Canada to accomplish. The Government of Canada recently announced a 10.7 billion dollar investment in the automotive industry to help the Ontario economy and other areas affected by the downturn. It would be my estimate that, in order to maintain the level of consumer spending and help support the tourism industry here in Newfoundland and Labrador, the Government of Canada could make the strategic investment into Marine Atlantic’s fuel budget to ensure consumables and visitors to this province do not get hit with added fuel surcharges.

I’m hoping that your office and the Government of Canada can turn some of its attention to this issue and I await your reply to my query.

My regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Final update (#3)

Oil markets still in drive mode
All fuels show increases on the way

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 16, 2009- Oil prices are rising and so are the costs to the consumer with all fuel prices set to increase later this week, at least that’s according to George Murphy’s data.

Final numbers in
“Stronger numbers are in today that show all fuel users in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience increases in consumer prices this coming Thursday morning. With all data now in, consumers will see an added 2.01 cents per litre on heating and stove oil pricing, an added 2.8 cents a litre on diesel prices and a huge 6.6 cent a litre hike in gasoline pricing,” said Murphy

“In spite of inflation fears, investors are still betting on increased demand of fuel products. That, and a failing US dollar have also helped in supporting pricing to consumers that will be very noticeable later this Thursday morning with anticipated increases on the way.

Watch out for the gas and go
“With the increase in pump prices about to hit, consumers should be aware of the person next to them fueling up who may attempt the “gas and go”, a common type of theft whenever there is a run-up in pricing. As in other years, consumers have to be aware of the fact that this is a type of theft that gets passed down to the consumer in added costs to service stations. We can help avoid this problem by being aware of who you are filling up next to and making note of who the person is and what kind of car they are driving, getting the necessary data for . The last thing we need to see as consumers is the cost of theft being passed down to the consumer.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

All numbers are up...

One more day of numbers to get and here's what I have...

• Heating and stove oils up by 1.92 a litre.
• Diesel up by 2.7 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline up by 6.3 cents a litre.

Yes...

Going to be a line-up at the pumps again Wednesday night...

I'll be back in here sometime after eight tomorrow night with the final but don't expect to see much change...

Regards,

George

Update #1

Just wait for later this week!

If you think we just might get the rout at the pumps later on this week when the PUB sets prices again, you'd be right.

With oil prices increasing and with no signs of abatement, it's looking more positive that we're going to take quite the jolt when they are set Thursday morning. To put it mildly, when we skipped out on interruption to pricing, we just missed getting a four cent a litre hit at the pumps.

Since then, oil and all it's related refined commodities, have also increased in value.

Here's what I have for this coming Thursday, keeping in mind that I have to get two more business days of data before I call the final shot on Thursday;

• Heating and stove oil prices to increase by 1.85 cents per litre.
• Diesel prices increase by 2.6 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline to increase by 6.1 cents a litre, so far.

Yup...

Hurts...

Talk about hijacking economic recovery...

Regards,

George

Will prices spike this week?
Numbers show interruption a possibility

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 10, 2009- The rise in oil prices this last week may leave a very sour taste in the mouth of consumers, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“I’m seeing a steady rise in the price of oil and its related commodities and that doesn’t bode well for consumers. While some numbers are close to my margin for error, I’m putting out a recommendation that we all err on the side of caution this time out because of the volatility of the markets these past few weeks. I’d much rather I was wrong more so than right sometimes,” said Murphy.

What consumers can expect this Thursday
“Numbers show large increases on the way. Heating and stove oils are expected to increase by 4.37 cents a litre, diesel by 4.7 cents a litre and gasoline by another 4.9 cents a litre. My actual on gas before the addition of taxes shows a 4.17 cent a litre increase, so that’s why the call of ‘erring on the side of caution’ in this case. The margin for error would bring it below the 4.17 cent a litre margin and hence, no increase this week. The possibility of an increase however, is much more likely than not.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

Prices slightly up for this week
Increase in prices renews concerns over added fuel surcharges

Media release


Conception Bay South, NL, June 02, 2009- Most fuel prices will probably increase on Thursday but that’s not the big worry. The creep up in all fuel product prices is renewing concerns that some companies may be forced to consider the likelihood of adding fuel surcharges to account for the latest increases in prices.

Marine Atlantic costs to go up?
George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices says that businesses operating within the province should be concerned that there is a possibility that some costs will be increased because of the extra costs for fuel in recent weeks, leading to the possibility of added fuel surcharges again.

“We’re keeping an eye to Marine Atlantic who will be making the decision on added fuel surcharges later this month. The first time they did that back in 2007; prices for most marine type fuels were averaging close to 35 cents a litre when a fuel surcharge of two per cent was applied to passenger fares. As of the first of June, 2009 those numbers exceed that of 2007 by almost 2.5 cents a litre, creeping upwards in recent weeks and showing no signs of abatement. The province should immediately be concerned about any addition to prices crossing the Gulf and should be taking steps to ensure these costs are not going to be passed down to the consumer or to businesses in the province. We also have a very important tourism season to protect,” said Murphy.

“Our federal representatives should press the government in Ottawa to help the Department of Transport and the minister responsible, John Baird, absorb these added costs to Marine Atlantic. If they can step in to the automotive industry with financial assistance, they can help Marine Atlantic absorb the additional costs of marine fuels. We’re seeing the numbers increase and we still have time to deal with anything that is forth-coming provided the federal government is receptive to protecting the province from added increases to rates.”

On the consumer front
“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see an added 1.77 cents a litre to heating and stove oils, an added one cent a litre to gasoline prices and 1.9 cents a litre on diesel fuels as a result of this past two weeks market activity. Even though numbers show inventories of crude oil almost 50 million barrels more than the average, prices continue to climb as a result of positive economic news. They may be positive for the provincial treasury but, it’s not so positive for the consumer when we see the removal of disposable income from the consumer’s pocket.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Update #1

Price increases coming

I'll be posting more on this tomorrow night when all the data is in, but for now, it ooks like price increases are coming.

Here's what I have so far, thirteen days out of fourteen available days data:

• Heating/stove oils up by 1.48 a litre.
• Diesel up by 1.6 a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows up by close on a penny.

A few notes for this period:

• Canadian dollar has gained by six cents against its US counterpart.
• Refiner capacity has increased to 85 per cent from last week's 83.7 per cent.
• Consumer demand for distillates measured down by 9 per cent from last year.
• Jet fuel demand down by slightly better than nine also.
• Demand for gasoline is 4/10ths of a per cent below last years levels.
• Crude stocks are almost 50 millionbarrels more than last year for the same timeframe.

More tomorrow like I say...

Regards,

George

OPEC ideas with oil prices might change your mind

If the Saudi Arabian oil minister is right, and OPEC succeeds in jacking up oil prices well above the July, 2008 record of $147 US a barrel, what would you think?

Good for the Newfoundland and Labrador treasury?

Good for the environment?

Just the other day, a CBC news story quoted Ali al-Naimi as saying that oil prices could surpass the record by the year 2012. In a nutshell, a boon for the OPEC nations that comes with much trepidation and concern for the consumers in North America and indeed, worldwide.

Consider this...

As oil prices hit the record of $147.23 a US barrel last July 7th, consumers were also facing the elevated price of heating oils that hit close on $1.24 a litre. The record heating oil price came close to killing the local heating oil industry here, leading to some radical changes in the ownership of the local dealers. Some retailers sold out leaving the industry here dominated by big oil rather than being influenced by the mom and pop operation.

If OPEC succeeds in driving prices in excess of the old record, will OPEC also succeed in killing the heating oil industry? Will we see an enforced conservation because people simply will not be able to afford to buy heating oils?

What of the affect on gasoline or diesel prices?

No doubt that pricing for refined commodities would hit the roof. The fact that OPEC is even of this way of thinking is both alarming, and a foreboding of the possibility of things to come if you're a heating oil user.

I don't think there's any consolation in OPEC's way of thinking and the provincial treasury simply would not be able to keep up even though the treasury would like the influx of cash. The reality is that OPEC is stepping on insecure ground and it's actions like driving up the price of oil could do more to impact demand by the consumer.

They could end up sshooting themselves in the foot...

But really...Isn't it time that Canadians insulate themselves from OPEC?

Your thoughts?

No change in pricing this week

Just a short note...

No change in pricing for any fuels I cover, at least for this week.

Here's what I have so far, for this pricing period;

• Heating/stove oils up by 53/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel up by 6/10ths, and...
• Gasoline up by close on 4/10ths of a cent.

Hopefully, we'll see a drop next week or, at least see prices steady.

Regards,

George

Update:

Prices to increase again
Refinery outages and political unrest increase oil pricing

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 19, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will, again see an increase in all fuel prices when the Public Utilities Board sets prices this coming Thursday at it’s regular price-setting, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Political unrest and refinery outages south of the border are being mentioned as key reasons why consumers here will see prices increase this Thursday morning. Consumers can expect to see an added two cents on gasoline prices, 2.4 cents on diesel and 2.08 cents a litre onto heating and stove oil pricing this Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

“Rumors are rampant in the markets that there is considerable disruption and loss of life in Nigeria in the delta region over these past few days. Add to that, the fact of several refinery outages and we have the impetus to see prices increase on fears of disruptions again. Even though refinery capacity and utilization rates sit at close to 84 per cent, it seems that the refinery disruption scenario is manufactured by industry and is easily curable and we know that there have been supply concerns from the Niger Delta region for years now. It is inexcusable to see prices increase to consumers with this information!

“Demand figures are, at present close to two percentage points down from last year at this same time-frame. Consumer demand for oil products such as distillates remains low at 14 per cent below last years levels. Jet fuel demand has dropped by almost 11 percentage points against last years numbers and industries numbers are telling us that prices will increase? The information available out there is telling us that consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador as well as the rest of North America are all being taken for a ride this week.

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers up again

Just a short note as I'll have more later this evening when I have all my data. Here's what I have so far for this regulatory period:

• Heating/stove oils show a 2.06 cents a litre increase coming.
• Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
• Diesel shows a 2.4 cent a litre increase.

More to follow later this evening, as I have said. I'm looking for that last day of data. I don't anticipate any real changes from what I have here. I'll let everyone know in the meantime.

Regards,

George

Say good-bye to gas under a buck a litre
Numbers show interruption

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 12, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience a significant jump at the pumps when they wake up on Thursday morning, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers show that interruption on gasoline prices will occur as a result of elevated spot prices over the last seven days, and since prices were last set by the PUB. The guidelines have been met for prices to move up, in this case by a whopping 7.1 cents a litre according to my data. My numbers do not show other fuels increasing under the rules of interruption even though they are all mostly up as well.” said Murphy.

“The last price setting showed a difference of almost 1.7 cents a litre between my data and that of the PUB. It’s probable that difference could account for prices to increase by only 5.4 cents a litre, still extreme in its outcome to consumers. While the PUB takes a measure of volatility as well, my numbers didn’t start to show that until last Wednesday, a day after the last price setting. They’ve been sky-rocketing ever since.

“Call it the usual in this case. I’m hearing the usual causes of improving economic news, an anticipated pick-up in consumer demand ahead of the summer driving season in the US, or low refinery utilization rates, it’s all there to be heard. The simple fact is that consumers enjoyed a break at the pumps and that has helped put disposable income back into consumers’ pockets. In recent weeks, we’re seeing that being taken away again. Cheap energy helps in a recovering economy. On a local level, this one hurts.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Even my margin of error can't account for this one...

The last two days of market trading have been unusual, but not expected. You might have known that, with signs that the economy is picking up, they'd be going mad on the New York Mercantile Exchange floor again. With oil up almost $9.00 US the last couple of weeks,it was to be expected...

The kicker?...

Numbers for two days are showing possible interruption to occur next week,IF the trend holds up with the gasoline numbers I'm looking at right now.

Keep in mind that interruption needs seven consecutive days where the average exceeds four cents +/- from the previous price setting. My previous average from the Thursday morning upwards adjustment is 44.69 cents for the previous two weeks.

With that said, numbers here show a 5.3 cent a litre upwards movement in pricing, not including taxes. In other words, the first two days averaged 49.95 cents a litre.

Turns out that gasoline, better than a buck a litre, just might be closer than anyone thinks. Just when you thought it might be ok to spend a little more, along comes Big Oil to tank everything again.

I'll keep you all updated!

Regards,

George

UPDATE! Saturday, May 09/09

Five days now show gasoline to increase by 7.3 cents a litre. Two more days to go...

Update! Monday, May 11/09

Six days data now shows an imminent increase to gasoline pricing on the way for residents in newfoundland and labrador. With one more day of data to come, gasoline now shows an allowable increase of 7.2 cents a litre. Spread the word!

Prices to take a down-turn
For now...

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 6, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight dip in prices for most petroleum products this week when the Petroleum pricing Office adjusts prices this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.


What consumers should see
“Both heating and stove oils should drop by close on 2.1 cents per litre, diesel also heading down another 2.2 cents per litre. Gasoline will drop by just shy of a penny, 9/10ths of a cent on a litre. If the Canadian dollar were still the same value it was two weeks ago, we’d all be looking at an increase in gasoline pricing instead,” said Murphy.

“All petroleum pricing is down slightly in spite of the increase in crude oil prices, mainly because of the performance of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. While crude has increased by nearly $8.00 US and spot prices also increased during this time, we caught a break with the Canadian dollar gaining six cents against its cousin. Spot prices for gasoline, for example, increased by close to 15 cents a US gallon but we saw a decrease because of the Canadian dollar closing against the US.”

Summer pricing to come
“My nearest projection for summer gasoline pricing is putting the low end of prices at $1.05 a litre by the last week of June, first week of July. Usually, we see prices spike sharply during and after the US Memorial day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season in the US. Paring prices this year is mainly due to a couple of factors, namely; gains on gasoline inventories, sharp increases in crude oil inventory and dropping consumer demand figures. All this could change if any of these factors change, like a pick-up in consumer demand, a drop in inventories, or any further production cut from OPEC. Keep in mind that we will also soon hear about the coming hurricane season when we will all hear traders use that threat to drive up pricing.”

Eye on Marine Atlantic
“Since Marine Atlantic removed fuel surcharges, they also promised to review them sometime in June and make their call as to the placement of further fuel surcharges based on any increase in the price of marine type fuels. So far this year, those numbers are taking the same direction downwards as most distillates and, while we still have another month or so to go before they make the decision of adding surcharges again, so far those prices wouldn’t justify a move at this time. We’re keeping a close watch on this one.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Just a quickie!...

Hi all...

Just a quick note to let you all know what we have here so far this period...

So far, we have the following:

• Heating and stove oils down by 2.20 cents a litre.
• Diesel down by 2.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline down by 1.3 cents a litre.

From the looks of things and as predicted, we're going to start to notice a gradual downhill slide with distillate prices as we get into warmer weather.

We should also start to notice that slide particularly as we see a drop in world travel, making jet fuel figures crash with the onslaught of the H1N1 virus (swine flu). Nobody is going to travel while there is a "risk' involved.

Two more days to go so, we'll keep you all updated as we get closer to Tuesday evening...

Regards,

George

Numbers are down

No price changes this week, however...

While there is something happening in the oil markets besides the threat from swine flu, there is a tense atmosphere that is persiting.

It hasn't reared it's ugly head to traders, as of yet, but it will soon.

What should be happening is a steady drop back in fuel prices along with crude oil, almost to the point where we should be slightly below $30.00 US a barrel, given the contravening evidence.

Markets are witnessing further economic damage, numbers for unemployment keep creeping upwards and inventories of crude oil and it's related, refined commodities are climbing while, the latest figures from the EIA show a slight drop in demand for gasoline and other fuels.

Distillates are bringing the bad news. Heating and stove oil demand is dropping off with the onset of warmer weather and other distillates like diesel and jet fuels, show massive drops in demand numbers, with jet fuel demand down by over nine per cent from last years numbers.

As for gasoline?

Demand numbers now show something that they haven't shown in several weeks. Demand there is also down, even though it may be a paltry .4 per cent against last years numbers for the same time period. It is a foreboding of what is to come, if traders don't notice it soon, they probably will with the next inventory data figures coming out tomorrow; that consumers are hurting out here and the swine flu will only add to the traders misery.

No one is going to travel until this crisis, in a spreading disease that has gone world-wide now, is overwith.

There's a steady trend down, especially with distillates, until the various health agencies world-wide get a grip on this one and, traders using your money and mine, just can't see it yet.

Plane tickets anyone?

In the meantime, here's what I have so far this regulation period:

• Stove oil and heating oils down by 1.94 a litre.
• Diesel down by 2.1 a litre, and...
• Gasoline down by 1.6 or 1.7 cents a litre.

Let's see what happens for the next week, shall we?

Regards,

George

Slight changes coming for fuel prices
Gas is up a little, distillates showing down

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 21, 2009- Consumers won’t see too many changes in fuel pricing when they are set this coming Thursday morning by the Public Utilities Board, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What consumers will see this week
“Numbers haven’t changed a great deal over the past two weeks. The markets are at an impasse as it weighs demand against bad economic news. It’s almost like everyone is waiting for something to happen and nothing is”, said Murphy, researcher for the consumer group. Gasoline shows an added 8/10ths of a cent up while the distillates are down. Stove oils are down by 1.26 cents a litre and that could be the way of heating oils. Diesel is also set to drop by 1.2 cents.

Watching Marine Atlantic
“I’m keeping a close eye to the marine fuel numbers as they come in. They are now hanging close to where they were back in 2005, which was the year previous to any added surcharges on passenger fares. With the drop in distillate demand in recent months, it’s going to be interesting to see what Marine Atlantic will do even though we still have to go through another two months of market trading before they come to a decision on adding fuel surcharges once again. In the near term, I don’t feel there will be an increase forth-coming in June as the bad economic news does not provide that upwards pressure to pricing.

Focus off distillates
“Consumers should expect to see a gradual decline in stove, diesel and heating oil prices for the next few weeks. Diesel, an important transportation fuel, will still be susceptible to some chance of upward movement, particularly if refiners continue to cut back on capacity. We have more to fear from inventory draw-downs on gasoline that will help stabilize the price, if not increase gasoline prices slightly in the weeks leading up to the US Memorial Day holiday. We’ll be able to make a summertime prediction on peak gasoline prices by then.

OPEC to meet again
“OPEC has set its next meeting for May 28, 2009 in Vienna. The group will meet again to discuss the current economic situation and talk about the possibility of further cuts to production. It may all be for naught. Figures from the International Energy Agency show that OPEC compliance with its own self-imposed quota has been weak as of late. The group produced almost 770,000 barrels a day more than its 4.2 million barrel cut over the last year. The numbers are even more telling when last weeks report from the US Energy Information Administration reported a good build in crude oil inventory alongside draw-downs of refined products. We could be on the verge of another collapse in crude oil prices if we see more increases in crude oil inventory and continuing weak compliance with quotas.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Focus is off heating oils

Summer driving season may be a bust to oil companies

Hi to all...

Just a quickie update not to expect any big changes to pricing this week.
Here's what I have so far, with one more day's data to go.
*Gasoline measures up by 2/10ths of a cent on a litre.
*Stove oil shows down by 1.18 cents a litre which is also indicative of where heating oil will be going. Seems that the focus is off heating oils and we're probably going to start to see some steady declines here with the end of the heating season.
*Diesel also shows down by 1.2 cents a litre.

An update to my blog and a release with the final numbers will be available to all media this evening sometime after the end of today's market trading.

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

No price changes this week

I'm fresh in the door and back at it after a short week on the west coast.

The message is simple this time...

Nothing happening with prices this week. We'll have to wait for them for next week, but in the meantime, here's what I have so far, all miniscule in nature...

• Stove oil is down by 82/100ths of a cent.
• Gasoline is up slightly by 3/10ths of a cent, and...
• Diesel is down by 6/10ths of a cent.

The stove oil number may be an indicator of where the heating oil number is as well. I'm taking notice now that we're getting into the warmer weather on the markets and distillates will be losing some steam as the summer driving season is on the way.

More on that in the coming weeks...

Regards,

George

Increases coming to stove, heating and gasoline prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 8, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience another bump at the pumps when they wake on Thursday morning, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What consumers will see
“There has been a lot of volatility in the markets over the past two weeks, especially with refined commodity prices. In spite of recent inventory gains for all fuel groups, prices have been up sharply one day and down the next. That overall trend is adding up to some increases in consumer pricing. Gasoline shows 2.1 cents a litre up, stove oils show 3.14 up and that could be pointing the way towards an increase in heating oil costs as well. It’s still too close to call for diesel, even though my numbers show anywhere between 2/10ths and 2.0 cents down on that fuel,” said Murphy.

Missing opportunity in Central Newfoundland?
“The closure of the Grand Falls-Winsor paper mill is reflective of lost opportunity to break into the green economy in the province. Methanol is fast taking a place as a viable energy product that is added to most fuels to help complete the burning process and can even be used by itself. It also happens to be made from fermenting wood fibre by-products. Abitibi-Bowater should be approached and partnered with the provincial and federal governments to convert the plant to, not only make paper but to refine methanol using its waste by-products that can’t be used in the papermaking process. We’re letting Central Newfoundland die on the vine and we should all be a little more forward in our thinking that we have a place and a role to play in today’s world changes to a green economy. The take-over and expropriation of the power resources belonging to Abitibi-Bowater may have complicated the chances of even approaching the company to try such a venture. Methanol could have been refined there and distributed world-wide through the petrochemical industry using Botwood as an export point; and these export points are also the import points for more conventional fuels around the province, like gasoline and heating oils. These points for transit already exist! And let’s not forget the fact that we have another paper making plant in Corner Brook that could also be on its last legs and in need of a secondary source of funds from wood fibre.

“It’s just not in central regions that a project such as this could have occurred. We have an untold number of wood harvesters and other forestry workers out there tied to an industry that failed to diversify from its sole intent; to make paper. We also have secondary industries that also are connected with the forestry sector, like the transport industry, that can benefit. Today, we can use wood and any other wood by-product, including the recycling of paper, into methanol. We also have a federal government ready to invest into greener energy technologies. The question does have to be asked however; ‘Is it too late to back up now?’

“Imagine if something like this worked, with minimal dollars to convert wood to a viable fuel. In Labrador, where there is a virtually untouched source of wood fibre, the methanol change could help bring about the demise of expensive oils used along the coast for electric generation. It can be a fuel manufactured in Labrador for the benefit of Labradorians. What we have here instead I believe, is a lost opportunity from both levels of government as well as Abitbi-Bowater, to help ensure the security of wood fibre as a source of driving an economy.”


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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

All the numbers are in...

Stove, heating and gasoline to increase

Just a quick word here, to all the readers of the blog...

Here's what I have as of this morning. Sorry it's online here so late but, work has to come first before I can get to play here!

• Stove oils show an increase of 3.14 cents per litre. This may also be pointing the way for heating oils as well. As a reminder, I still can't get that kerosene number to figure heating numbers out perfectly. We'll see what happens here. To make it easy to figure out, the stove oil number is a rough 25% of the overall winter heating oil blend. Take 25% of 3.14 and add that to the mystery 75% kerosene number to come up with the final tally.
• Gasoline shows an increase of 2.1 cents a litre, not much change with the extra days data, and...
• Diesel...Yes, diesel. Last week saw interruption to that fuel that, I felt, was well over 1.8 cents a litre too much. My numbers here show 2/10ths of a cent down so, I'm hoping that the PUB will drop it by the difference as well. In other words, 2.0 cents a litre down, just to bring them back on par with my numbers.

Hope this one helps!

Regards,

George

Prices still up

Twelve day average numbers show increases

Just to keep everyone in tune as there seems to be some delays with the auto emailer at times, this is just to give everyone the heads up.

Here's what I have so far, 12 days data out of 14 and five of seven for the diesel numbers...

• Stove oils up by 3.26 cents a litre. This may be an indicator of where heating oil will be going on Thursday.
• Gasoline shows 2.1 cents a litre upwards for Thursday so far.
• Diesel shows no increase according to my numbers. I have a problem here though. My base average for diesel before interruption this past Thursday showed an allowable increase of 3.6 cents a litre, just outside the requirements for interruption. I explained then that I couldn't account for any market volitility. As it turned out, prices did interrupt by 5.4 cents so, I know this is way out of line. If my numbers were indeed wrong, I expect the PUB to drop diesel again by the difference of 1.8 cents a litre. My averages on paper here are showing neither increase or decrease. I hope that makes some sense?;)

Anyways, as soon as I have some more numbers for the days up to this Wednesday, I'll be posting here again with the final tally.

Final word. I'm off to Corner Brook and Stephenville next week from Thursday, April 9th to the following Tuesday, April 14th and I'm leaving the computer well away from me for a little break. I will be checking on numbers that Tuesday night and posting any possible changes (it is an interruption week) late that night so, look for my posting Wednesday morning when you rise!

Regards,

George

Update! All seven days of data are in!


Interruption not likely to gasoline, stove oils
Heating oil and diesel numbers remain questionable

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 1, 2009- It’s not likely that consumers will see any changes to some fuel prices this coming Thursday but, heating oil prices are still at risk of price interruption as an important component of the fuel remains a pricing mystery.

“While all numbers are showing up, all fuels with the exception of heating oils will not likely see increases to pricing this week. For interruption to pricing to occur, we have to see an average four cent a litre movement, up or down, from the previous price setting. Numbers were showing that pricing was elevated during the end of last week but backed down over the last three business days. We may have dodged a pricing bullet this week but could still see increases on all levels for next week instead,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Heating oil is a combination of jet fuel and #2 type heating oils and it’s the jet fuel component that we have no price for. While the #2 number shows an increase of 3.3 cents a litre, it’s a mystery what will make up the rest of the price for the fuel. If you need heating oils, I would recommend a ‘buy” option in case the jet fuel number was up this past week as a precautionary measure.

“Gasoline shows up by 2.2 cents a litre, diesel up by 3.6 cents and stove oils (#2) up by 3.3 cents a litre. I’m a little concerned with the diesel number as well as it is close to the average four cent a litre requirement for interrupt to occur. I’m putting a “buy” recommend option on that too; in case there is data that the P.P.O has showing interruption is warranted.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member My blog: www.gasandoil.blogspot.com
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Numbers this week so far

Last week, I told you about the possibility of fuel price interruption on all fronts.

While the numbers are still up considerably for all fuels, there seems to be some retreat for others. The market sell-off on Monday this week may very well have been enough to thwart any increases that could have come this Thursday. That's not to say that there's not anything in the cards for next week instead. We need to see an extended downturn in the oil markets to change any possibility of an increase to consumers then.

Some numbers are a downright "I don't know" when it comes to predicting what will happen to them for this week, however...

Here's what I have so far, keeping in mind that the heating oil number may be close to what I have here for stove oils. Problem again here is that I simply can't get that jet fuel component to make the accurate prediction. The "actual" that may occur could be more than what I have for stove oils. Keep in mind that, while I operate on the basis of a 3/10ths of a cnet margin for error, I could be wrong and there is always the possibility that an increase could happen when I have no increase showing in the numbers.

• Gasoline now shows 1.9 cents a litre up. In other words, no interruption here this week.
• Diesel shows an increase of 3.5 cents a litre, just outside the requirements for interruption. That doesn't mean my numbers are going to be the right ones this week. Volitility is key in the numbers this week.
• Stove oils shows an increase of 3.6 cents a litre, just a bare 4/10ths of a cent out.

I will be posting again tomorrow when I have more data. These numbers are based on six days out of seven needed for interruption to occur. For it to happen, we need a consistant four cent a litre change over seven days of data.

Regards,

George

All petroleum prices to increase Thursday
The days of gas under a buck are numbered

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 24, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another increase in petroleum product prices again this week as commodity figures reflect the rising price of crude oil.

Possible interruption to prices for next week
According to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices, those numbers that are showing themselves this week are not substantial, but the increase in spot prices in the last couple of days in particular has him worried. The last two business days are reflecting a possible interruption to pricing for all fuel products if the related commodity prices stay high for the rest of the week leading up to next Tuesday’s business day. While not a guarantee that interruption to pricing will occur, the latest numbers are within the guides of the requirements. “I am seeing heating/stove oil spot prices that have increased by 36 cents a US gallon, gasoline spot prices that have 31 cents and diesel by 36 cents a gallon as well. Yesterday, heating and stove oil spot prices hit 48.12 cents a litre and I’m showing an average of 42.89 cents over the last two weeks. If we see that figure of 48 cents a litre hold up over the next couple of days, we could be looking at an interruption scenario of over five cents a litre for next Thursday. Diesel shows the same scenario adding the same and gasoline adding an additional four cents a litre”, said Murphy.

Numbers for this Thursday
“For Thursday, gasoline shows just an added 8/10ths of a cent increase, heating/stove oils show 1.88 cents a litre up and diesel to increase by 2.1 cents a litre. At the same time, we’ve seen crude oil increase from $42.33 US a barrel to today’s close of $53.48 a barrel, numbers that don’t reflect the reality in increasing spot prices for crude oils related, refined commodities.”

“The days may be numbered for gasoline under a buck a litre in Newfoundland and Labrador. While it was good while it lasted Big Oil should understand that it is higher fuel prices that are hindering any economic recovery. We’re better off helping the economy recover by keeping energy cheap to the consumer and business. If we see energy prices increase again, we’re going to see added surcharges to consumables and another artificial increase to inflation. All this is taking away disposable income to the economy.”

Market highlights

· Stove and heating oil prices increase over the last two weeks from $1.11 a US Gallon to $1.48 a gallon US.
· Diesel prices increase from $1.12 to $$1.48 a US gallon.
· Gasoline increases from $1.15 a US gallon to $1.43 a gallon.
· The Canadian dollar increases in value against the US dollar from $1.2807 on March 11th to today’s $1.2262, the last day of this regulation period.
· Gasoline inventories show a 3.2 million barrel increase and demand also increases 1.1 per cent over last years figures.
· Distillate supplies show an increase in supply while demand for the same drops by 9.3 per cent. Jet fuel demand also drops by 6.4 per cent against lat years figures.
· Refiner capacity remains low at just a hair above 82 per cent.


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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

A quick note...

Here's a short synopsis on what I have in the numbers so far.

With the price of oil skyrocketting from $42.33 March 11th to today's close of $$53.00 even, you would figure that the numbers would be more substantial than what they are, but they're not.

There is a bit of a twist here though.

The last two days of this pricing period shows the meteoric rise in spot prices that, if the numbers keep up to where they are right now, won't result in a huge increase in prices this week, we could get the bigger ding next week.

I'm taking a guess here, and keep in mind that next weeks data hasn't happened yet, but from the looks of things and the way the next week is shaping up, there is an interruption scenario taking place that could see an average increase in gasoline prices of a rough four cents a litre.

Heating/stove oils could see an added five cents and diesel by five as well. Again, that's if the numbers hold up for the next week. If it happens, I'll be posting here again before next Tuesday hits.

In the meantime, heating/stove oils show an increase of 1.48 cents a litre, gasoline showsa little over a half cent up and diesels are showing up by 1.6 cents a litre with one more day of data to get (13 days out of 14 days on hand now).

I'll have the final numbers for you all tomorrow evening!

Regards,

George

Update #3

Slight change in the numbers

All fourteen days on hand and here's what I have:

• Stove oils to increase by 4/100ths of a cent.
• Heating oils will follow the direction of stove oils, in other words, no noticeable change.
• Diesel to increase between 1/10th and 2/10ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline to increase between 3.8 and 3.9 cents a litre.

Regards,

George

Update #2

Oil trades higher
Consumers to take a hit this coming Thursday morning

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 9, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another increase in gasoline prices this coming Thursday as oil prices and their related commodities continue to trade upwards, at least that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Gasoline has taken a big jump upwards over the last two weeks, buoyed mainly by an increase in demand and the sudden fall in the Canadian dollar. We’ve lost six cents against the US greenback in the last two weeks and the sudden fall in the dollar should be a continuing concern in the determination of fuel prices. We’ve lost an added two cents a litre as a result of the dollar difference there.

What consumers will see
“I expect gasoline prices to increase by four cents a litre this Thursday with stove oils increasing by just 12/100ths of a cent and diesel to also increase by close on 3/10ths of a cent. The stove oil number may be reflective of little or no change in heating oil prices as well. All these numbers are based on 13 out of a possible 14 days data. The price increase will be less than a seven cent a litre increase in the Halifax area but reflective of continuing market volatility.

Markets show continuing volatility
“If you’ve been watching the markets, you probably have also noted the price swings in everything from oil to our dollar. There’s a continuing level of distrust in the markets based on the lack of any positive economic news. Unemployment numbers are continuing to increase but, that’s not reflective in the oil numbers. You’d expect to see a drop in consumer demand but, that’s not happening now. There’s some complacency returning to what consumers see as a ‘lower price’. We’ve also witnessed a draw-down in crude inventory from the strategic supply at Cushing, Oklahoma where WTI is mostly bargained and priced for.

Work for the wood fibre industry?
“I’m surprised at any response that has been given as regards to the major closures and shut-downs in the wood fibre industries in the province. Here, we have a renewable resource that has seen concentration in making paper rather than the province looking at the other alternative in the troubled industry. I believe that the time has come for the province to carry out a bold experiment in the manufacture of methanol/ethanol from wood fibre . Here we have a viable source of supply for another aspect of the petrochemical industry and it has not been looked at as of yet. While ethanol is derived from other sources like corn and wheat, we can help stymie any increases in food costs by helping change where we get oxygenates from. Oxygenates are used in gasolines and other fuels to help with more complete burning of fossil fuels and they’re less harmful to the environment. If we can show that it would be easy to manufacture here, we have that chance of getting into another aspect of the petroleum industry rather than the traditional and we’d also help put unemployed lumber industry workers back to work.

Market highlights

* The Canadian dollar loses almost six cents against its US counterpart resulting in an added loss to consumers of close on two cents a litre as a result.
* Consumer demand for gasoline increases by just over two per cent over last years figures for the same timeframe last year.
* Refinery capacity still recorded as low at just over 83% utilization, that’s just up slightly against last week’s figure of 81%.
* Oil prices continued to climb from $38.96 US on February 24th to today’s $47.07 US a barrel at market close while, gasoline spot prices rose an average of 41.28 cents a litre from 38.88 cents a litre at the last price setting.
* Markets are also playing on fears that OPEC will meet on March 15th coming to institute another cut in production by an added one million barrels per day.
* As reported by the United States Energy Information Administration last week, gasoline shows just a marginal increase of 200 thousand barrels of added inventory from the week previous.
* A draw-down in crude oil inventories last week helped oil prices to increase although oil inventories were recorded at almost 45 million barrels over the same timeframe last year. Distillate inventories also showed a marked increase as a result of drops in demand of diesel, jet fuels and heating oils. The drop in jet fuel demand is recorded at just over 15 per cent below last year’s levels for the same timeframe.
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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
gasprices@hotmail.com

Gas prices to take the hit this week

Update #1

Here's a quick synopsis on what I have so far this regulation period, with two more business days to go:

• Stove oils show a modest increase of just 11/100ths of a cent. Heating oils should go that same direction with very little change at the heating oil truck.
• Diesel shows just 2/10ths of a cent increase, however...
• Gasoline shows an added four cents a litre at the pumps.

Keep in mind that there are two days to go before I have the final numbers, but either way, look for gasoline to be the only fuel to take the big hit this week.

I'll be in touch Tuesday eveening with the final numbers!

George

Numbers don't show interruption, but...

I've been getting a few emails from you all enquiring about the latest numbers I have.

In short, I don't have numbers that would warrant for any fuel interruption at this time, but that doesn't mean that the Public Utilities Board doesn't have them, if that makes any sense.

Here's what I have so far for this period, in which there has been an awful lot of volatility in the markets caused chiefly by the grief the Canadian dollar is experiencing against the US greenback.

• Stove oils show an allowable .31 cents a litre increase from the current price. In other words, just slightly up about 3/10ths of a cent. That may be pointing the way of heating oils.
• Diesel shows an allowable of .47 cents a litre, just a little less than a half cent a litre up at the pumps.
• Gasoline shows an allowable increase of 3.61 plus taxes, a rough 4.1 cents a litre at the pumps. The interrupter formula works whenever there is a four cent a litre disparity in prices (before taxes). My allowable margin for error calls for a difference of 3/10ths of a cent when I take a measurement.In other words, I'm about a tenth of a cent out from what could happen.

There's a small difference here that I can't account for in the numbers. I really don't know what the PUB has in the numbers but, I do know two things: that there was an awful lot of turmoil at the start of this session that MAY have been picked up by the board and not by myself. I can't say that there is not going to be an increase in gasoline pricing this Thursday, but, then again, I really can't say that there will be either. Secondly, the drop in the dollar has cost the consumer almost two cents a litre (taxes in) when compared to last Wednesday's spot price on the markets. In turn, the Canadian dollar has lost almost four cents against the US dollar this past week.

I think I'll be filling up on Wednesday night just in case...

Hope this helps?

Regards,

George

Forever misunderstood

I just finished reading the rst of the comments section of todays Telegram. The story quotes my last release on the coming drop in most fuel prices. It wasn't the story that got to me, it was the comments by some clampitts after it...

Sometimes it's like beating my head off the wall...

Sometimes there's more sense in a bag of rocks...

I don't know how many times I have to state it categorically that I am not getting paid by anyone for doing what I am doing and there's just no sense in trying to explain why I carry on with what I do. My pay comes in the form of the savings that I make in the run of a year that stays in my pocket because I do track the price changes...

I just do it...

Agaian, I find that there are the doubting Thomas's out there that think I get paid by Danny for what I do. There are those out there that think I am the regulator, but I'm not!

Jesus, I feel like Brian in the Monty Python movie, The Life of Brian!

I am a regular guy who drives a taxi for a living and I track the price of gas and other fuels for the sake of myself and for family. That's where the big interest came from, after someone in the higher eshelons of a Big Oil company told me that it was basically none of my busines why the price of fuel is the price it is on any given day.

I disagreed with him whole heartedly at the time and i still do. The price of fuels is everyone's business and it'll continue to be mine as long as I have my drivers licence.

It bugs me to no ends the fact that someone can do something for nothing and people are held suspect for doing it.

Maybe it's time to take the show on the road and have a good chat with everyone about what I'm at and how I do it.

Think I could get some kind of grant from Big Oil for that?...

Regards,

George

Price drops on the way
Markets show another downturn

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 24, 2009- The markets have been showing another sell-off as the economy slowly sinks and that will show another break to consumers later this week as all fuel prices will drop on Thursday morning, that’s the prediction coming this week from the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What the numbers say
“All the data is in and it looks like we’re in for a break on petroleum products come this Thursday morning. Fourteen days of data show that diesel will drop by 5.0 cents per litre, gasoline to drop by 2.8 cents a litre and stove oils to drop by 3.99 cents per litre,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the group.

“The stove oil number points to what is on the way for heating oil and with that fuels jet fuel component showing a drop of up to 15 per cent in demand, I expect heating oil to take a sharper drop than the one predicted for stove oils. Heating oils should be closer to a nickel down as a result.

Outlook on diesel prices
Some clues are beginning to emerge from the markets in recent days on what could be happening with diesel prices in the long term and it should prove to be good news for a lot of users of the fuel. The last few days have shown some moves by the European Union against manufacturers of bio-diesel. Because the product is manufactured with huge subsidies by the US government, the EU is talking about placing tariffs on the product to keep it away from EU products. The EU views it as a subsidized product and that gives it an unfair advantage. If that happens, US inventories of distillate will only increase and that means dropping prices.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers still down...

Just a quick update...

One more day of data to attain and here's what I have up to now:

• Stove oils now show 3.89 cents a litre down. That's the way that heating oil will go, but heating oils should show more down than that number. Jet fuel, which is part of the winter heating oil mix, is showing a strong drop in demand. I'm looking at heating oils to be closer to five cents a litre down when all is said and done.
• Diesel shows 4.9 cents a litre down, and...
• Gasoline shows 2.5 cents down.

Again, I will post here later tomorrow night with the final numbers to come for Thursday. It might be one more day to come but, there's plenty enough data to call the shot on all fuels dropping this Thursday morning.

Regards,

George

Numbers, numbers, I got the numbers!

Just a quick update on what's happening out there on the markets as I'm still tracking drops to all fuels with just two more days of data to get my hands on.

• Stove oils down by 3.71 cents a litre so far.
• The heating oil number is part jet fuel. With jet fuel demand slipping to 15 per cent, I expect to see the heating oil number to drop more than the 3.71 stove oil number. Look for it to exced well above four cents a litre-Down!
• Diesel numbers show 4.7 cents a litre down, and...
• Gasoline shows 2.1 cents a litre down.

I'll be back around to post the final numbers again sometime Tuesday evening, hopefully in time for all to make their purchasing decisions based on what I have. Either way, the distillate prices are taking a pounding in the consumers favour.

Not bad to see them drop over the course of the winter!

Regards,

George

No price changes this week

Finally...

After a short spike in prices at the start of this pricing session, due mainly to draw-downs on inventories, it seems that things are starting to loosen up on the markets again.

Prices are dropping for the first time in several weeks it seems. March trading for WTI is dropping and so is the cost of crude acquisition.

While I don't have numbers that show interruption to fuel pricing, stove oils are showing 2.42 cents a litre down. That's probably a good indicator of where prices will be next week. The kicker here is that I can't get a read on jet fuel, so there is a possibility that heating oils are down even more, possibly within interruption territory, although I have no way to confirm that as being so.

Diesel fuels are also pointing down further, almost 3.3 cents a litre.

Gasoline experienced the biggest spike at the start of this session but, after today's market move downwards, now shows a"break even".

No change at all.

I'm expecting gasoline to trade further down for the next week, based simply on the fact that the next inventory data available on Wednesday should show an increase in stocks. Gasoline itself took a nine cent a litre hit on the markets today based on the ever-worsening economic news. Again this week, I expect to see a drop in demand, unlike last week that saw consumption equal to the same time period last year, and that should figure heavy in the markets again.

The above picture (AP photo), an overhead shot from New Jersey, says it all I think!

Or, check out this image compliments of Google earth: http://maps.google.ca/maps?near=port+newark&q=inventory,cars,delivery,port+newark,honda&f=p&rl=1&ie=UTF8&ll=40.657889,-74.010478&spn=0.002193,0.00412&t=h&z=18

For some reason, I think there's going to be some great deals on some models of cars in the coming weeks, particularly if you can wait for the next model year to come out!

Of course, anything can happen between now and next Tuesday when I have the final numbers in, so don't take all this as being "bible".

But, we can pray in the meantime!

I'll be in touch!

Regards,

George

Price changes on the way for Thursday
Distillate demand drops, gasoline increases

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 10, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will, once again, experience a drop in distillate prices while gasoline is projected to see a small increase at the pumps this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Heating, stove oils and diesel to drop
“All the numbers are in and, by all appearances, those fuels connected with the distillate group, namely diesel, heating and stove oils, all will experience drops in pricing. Diesel fuel is projected to drop by 3.0 cents per litre while stove oils are projected to fall close to the same amount, 2.95 cents a litre. The stove oil number may be the harbinger of things to come with heating oils as well as jet fuel demand is also being impacted on the world markets so, that number for heating oils may in fact be slightly more than what we have for stove oils”, said Murphy.

Gasoline prices up slightly
“In the meantime, gasoline is expected to increase slightly by 3.3 cents per litre. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen the oil industry talking about the possibility of a refiner strike that could affect upwards of 30 thousand workers directly. We’ve also seen a slight drop in the builds of inventories in recent weeks. Even though the number shows very modest increases in inventory, the fact is that refiners are concentrating more on distillate output rather than gasoline and that has helped to support prices. Refined product supplied to the markets is down almost three per cent from last years numbers. Gasoline demand is a bare ½ a percentage point below last year for the same time frame as a result. Even though gasoline production rose slightly against the week previous, refiner capacity is still well below peak production rates, measuring just over 83 per cent.

Crude message in oil
“Crude oil supplies have increased in recent weeks, just one reason why we’ve seen the price of raw crude drop. There’s plenty of it out there and it seems that OPEC cuts have not impacted supply greatly. From the look of things, I believe that the economy is being hit harder than we think. This may be true evidence of the smack we are about to take economically and real troublesome signs of how deep the recession is going to be. We are now into the March contracts for delivery and we haven’t seen the affects of OPEC cuts as of yet. The question is, will we?

Residual fuels and Marine Atlantic
Residual fuel oil, a type of fuel used for marine applications, prices have reached March of 2005 levels and have been experiencing some form of steady pricing in the markets. This should be enough time now for Marine Atlantic to announce its next moves on the remaining nine per cent fuel surcharge that was put on for crossings made by the shipping line. These fuel surcharges were placed in 2008 and previously in 2007 when the fuel price was high and not at 2005 levels. It’s now time for Marine Atlantic to deal with the remainder of the fuel surcharges on crossings of the Gulf. It is also time for the federal government to step in and absorb any future increases in fuel costs that add an artificial inflation rate to goods coming into Newfoundland and Labrador. The people of the province were told through the media by Marine Atlantic officials that the remainder of the fuel surcharge would be dealt with in January. They’re late with it.


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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

One number up, the rest of them down

With one more day of data to attain (13 out of 14 days on hand), we can almost call the final shot on what will happen this week with pricing on petroleum products. These aren't final numbers, but they are close to what the actual may turn out like.

I'll have the final numbers tomorrow night for sure but, needless to say, I'm sure there will be some sort of a media splash to get the word out to everyone!

• Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.76 cents a litre. Remember that the heating number may be off because of the use of jet fuel as an antifreeze agent, a number for which we just can't get a hold of. Either way, down is the word here as there has been a drop in distillates over the last few weeks.
• Diesel fuel to drop by 2.8 cents a litre. With all the economic damage out there, there's a little less tendency to use those tractor trailers to ship goods and demand here has been impacted as a result.
• Gasoline shows an increase of 3.3 cents a litre. More on this one tomorrow night, but it doesn't look good in the face of refineries matching decreasing production with falling demand. I'm thinking that they're trying to strike a balance between the two factors and they're hoping for a drop in inventories as a result of the moves. That's part reason why gasoline is still being 'supported". That may change soon, if the economy has any say in the matter...

I'll be by with my final numbers tomorrow night, sometime after 8:00 P.M!

Regards,

George

No interruption this week!

Numbers confirm that there will be NO fuel price interruption this week unless there's an unknown factor out there like the jet fuel number. Even then, distillate numbers are pointing down, so if they are to drop, then it will be with heating fuels which has a 25% #2 fuel and 75% jet fuel mix.

I keep looking for a jet fuel number to use so I can figure out the winter mix but, alas! To no avail!

Numbers so far this period show:

*Heating/stove oils down by 2.0 cents a litre.
*Gasoline up by 2.6 cents a litre, and
*Diesel down by 1.9 cents a litre.

We have another week of market activity before these numbers are finalised so, let this be just a small pic of what is happening out there. These are not the final numbers yet!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices

Refinery workers keep talks on

Representatives of the United Steelworkers Union that handle upwards of 30,000 refinery workers have kept the lines of communication open in a bid to prevent a strike against refinery owners today, that's according to several news sources. The workers previous contract expired yesterday.

Oil and it's related, refined commodities took a nose-dive over the days trading, relieving some of the upwards market pressures on the price of gasolines and heating/stove oils.

Numbers still show no interrupt scenario developing for heating,stove oils or diesels. Gasoline numbers are still showing an added 2.5 cents a litre up with todays news. Today was also the first day in a week that the spot price dropped below that of the last week price-setting.

Four cents is needed for interruption to occur and that has to average over seven days of data.

We'll have the final word on that in tomorrow nights posting but, i can say that gasoline is going to have to trade up substantially for there to be an interruption scenario to kick in now.

Regards,

George

AIMS releases their study on regulated markets
...and how about something constructive for a change?

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 02, 2009- The Atlantic Institute for Market Studies has released a report on what regulated markets are costing consumers in Atlantic Canada and George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is hearing things in the report that he has heard before. He’s just waiting on the AIMS Group to come out with something constructive.

“The AIMS group came out with a report this morning that says regulation has cost the taxpayer in Newfoundland and Labrador several million dollars. If they had done their research, the AIMS group would have found that regulation costs the consumer of the province less than a half million bucks a year and amounts to .0007 cents a litre at the pumps and not the estimated 1.5 cents that the group used to construct its report”, said the researcher for the group.

“It also uses the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CPPI) as one of its sources of its report. The CPPI is a representative group of the oil companies so, I have to question the use of such information that AIMS has used. It’s not the first time they’ve spouted off on the costs of regulation but, we have yet to hear the constructive arguments from them on what to do to get some free competition going in the province- the chief reason why we have regulation in the first place. They also don’t advocate the dropping of some of the taxation component on gasoline that helps elevate the price at the pumps.

“It is important to remember that regulation in Newfoundland and Labrador regulates the maximum price that any product can be sold for. There is nothing to stop any company from selling their product for less than that and that’s where the consumer loses. Besides the immediate CBS area, the companies have always failed to sell gasoline below the regulated minimum set by the PUB. Why? Can the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies tell us that or are they tainted by the influences of the same people they are getting their information from? Are they saying that Big Oil should be the final arbiter in the setting of pricing?

“Can the AIMS group give us something we can use? Who is paying the tab on this latest ‘scoop’? Toronto prices are low because of a free market system called competition that still exists in the area. Small mom and pop operations still drop gasoline prices because there is a margin to do so of some fourteen cents a litre and big mainstream companies are forced to compete with them. The age of the small mom and pop operation in Newfoundland and Labrador died a long time ago and competition is dying in a lot of other areas of the country where mom and pop operations are being forced from the markets. That’s one reason why the province was forced to enact legislation back in 2001 to regulate the market. If the AIMS group had done its research, it would have had several explainers as to why we ended up with regulation in the first place. This release of theirs is flawed and also misinforms the public.”

“I would encourage the AIMS group to look at several issues pertaining to petroleum pricing itself.
*How does a market, where competition has been destroyed, restore it?
*Address taxation issues.
*Use different and argumentative sources. We had no call from the AIMS group so, we don’t know who was called otherwise, and we would have given them good arguments why regulation is in place.
*Why doesn’t the AIMS group study the effects of “reciprocal sales arrangements’ on markets where there is basically one or two sources of supply?
*Why does the AIMS group not lobby for changes to the Competition Act?


-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy’
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Pricesgasprices@hotmail.com

US refiners may strike.

Be warned!

The next increase in gasoline pricing just may have been brought by a variety of unions and companies in the good old USA.

Upwards of 24,000 refinery and maintenance workers are set to strike as of midnight tonight as contracts and reprieves run out. Some refineries are already preparing for shut-down while others will try to maintain production with replacement workers and management personnel.

If they do strike, some 1.8 million barrels a day of gasoline production may be disrupted and could cause a draw-down on the recent builds in gasoline inventory.

Draw-downs mean price increases to the consumer as the shortage of product gets a little on the scarce side. Depending on how long the strike lasts, we could see prices increase to over a buck a litre again-and soon.

So far this week, on the possible strike news, gasoline is averaging a rough 3.1 cents a litre up from the last price setting just last week. Four cents a litre is needed for that possibility to happen. If gasoline trades high or roughly the same as it did on Friday, then we can expect the interrupter formula to kick in later this week. Other markets have already seen increases in prices at the pump based on last week's activities on the strike matter.

Here in the province, we're not as likely to dodge the impacts of a US refiner strike either, even though we're miles away. Awww, the benefits of being part of the world economy and looking after Uncle Sam rather than your own, wa??

You might want to keep an eye on the blog Tuesday night for an "official word" on that thought.

I might add that heating, stove oils and diesel do not show signs of interruption according to what I have on paper.

*Whew!*

I'll be in touch!

George