Latest price check show intense competition in the region

Before I do anything, here's what I have so far this week with five days data out of a possible seven days:

• Heating and stove oils show a very modest 14/100ths of a cent decline.
• Diesel shows "no change" and...
• Gasoline shows an added 1.4 cents a litre.

I'll keep you updated with another release and blog posting late tomorrow night on what to expect for Thursday.

Now, here's what I have for this weeks price check of heating oils in the St. John's region. I have added a few observations from the calling around that I done this morning with a few odd things showing up.

Make note of the "notations" at the end:

Company......................Cents/Litre

Harvey's Oil.......................................78.05*

Irving Oil...........................................76.05**

ESSO (Imperial)...............................76.05*

North Atlantic...................................76.05

Ultramar Ltd....................................76.05

Chafe's Oil.........................................76.05

Discount Fuels..................................70.40

A-1 Fuels...........................................70.00

Skinner's Oil......................................71.76

Price difference.......................8.5 cents/Lt or $76.50 + HST

That means a difference of $86.75 based on a 900/Lt fill-up!

Of note!

*To get prices from Harvey's, they asked for a lot of information as regards to my street addy and such which was a little troublesome considering all I wanted to know was the current price, but here's where it got a little too strange. I was given two prices, one of which I was told was if I was a current Harvey's Oil customer. That price was 78.05/Lt cents a litre.

If I wasn't a Harvey's customer, then my price was 70.05/Lt cents a litre just to switch over to Harvey's. Now, pardon me for saying this, but if I were a Harvey's customer, how come I'm not getting the 70.05/Lt price anyway?

**Both Irving and ESSO (Imperial) had phone center operators answering calls from New Brunswick. If I'm going to buy here in Newfoundland and Labrador, it might be a good idea to check where their main centers of operation are located in order to keep workers here in the province. On the same note, these companies may be well advised that if they're going to be operating here in the province, why don't you have more office staff here in the first place?

That's it for this entry. If you have any information that you might want to pass along that might be pertinent to the readers out there, why not drop me a note?

Regards,

George

Update #3

Numbers are up on all fronts
Consumers will see an increase in prices this Thursday morning

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 23, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see an increase in most fuel prices this week when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The numbers are substantial in light of what we have seen lately. I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 2.73 cents per litre, diesel to increase by 3.3 cents and gasoline to rise by 3.8 cents per litre this coming Thursday,” Murphy said.

“Even though there has been some slight inventory building, I have seen investors put their money into refined commodities against the dropping US dollar. With crude oil hitting over $80 US a barrel earlier this week, the writing was on the wall in the form of higher crude acquisition costs as well. Today however, there was a bad economic report out of the US that showed consumer confidence taking a dip. Hopefully, this will instill a hold position in the markets as that dip in confidence will also reflect on any anticipated increase in consumer demand. This latest increase may be just a hiccup and, if confidence in economic recovery shows itself elsewhere, we could be looking at a decrease in prices again soon.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

Six days of data confirm increases on the way

Here's a quick update to yesterday's posting that includes data from today's market trading:

• Heating and stove oils now show an increase of 2.76 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 3.2 cents a litre on the way, and...
• Gasoline shows an increase of 3.8 cents a litre coming Thursday morning.

Oh well...Time to hit the pumps Wednesday night!

I'll have all the numbers along with a press release posting here late tomorrow night.

Regards,

George

Numbers are up

Five day shows increases on the way

Just a couple of words of warning here as regards to what I have for this week.

Numbers for this period are up substantially for all fuels that I measure. Everyone knows by now that the PUB regulates prices here on a weekly basis now. For five days out of seven days data so far this session, here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.64 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added 3.0 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.5 cents.

Two more days of data to get here but, the writing seems to be on the wall as to what to expect this coming Thursday.

Also, everyone might take note that I will be posting a weekly listing of heating oil pricing in and around the immediate St. John's area. That should give everyone a rough idea on what to expect from their own company and also to get everyone to start asking their own companies why the difference in prices. Mind you, depending on what date I actually check prices, they will be out ahead of the regular price setting and will not include any of my numbers in the changes.

I'm thinking here that I will continue to post the "price check" on Mondays rather than the "press release" that includes my guess on the price change.

In other words, when I get my price check out, you will see the price change when the PUB institutes their new price settings the following Thursday.

Hope this helps.

If you have any suggestions you might want to see me undertake, drop me a note or leave a comment below.

Regards,

George

gasprices@hotmail.com

No big changes in the numbers
Huge price difference in the local heating oil markets observed

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 16, 2010- For the second week in a row, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador won’t be seeing any great changes to fuel pricing when the PUB moves to adjust prices later this week. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What’s in the numbers?
“Oil prices stayed relatively steady this past week with today’s trading session being the exception. Prices fluctuated anywhere between $74 and today’s close at $77.11 US a barrel. Refined commodity prices also rose along with oil and that absorbed any modest decreases that were expected. Heating and stove oil prices are expected to drop by 24/100ths of a cent, diesel by only a tenth, while gasoline is expected to drop by a half penny. It wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t change considering my margin for error of three tenths of a cent.”

From the markets this week

• Refinery capacity remains at near historic lows, recorded down to 78.4 per cent.
• Last inventory report showed an increase in crude oil inventories and a drop in imports. Could be a significant signal to the markets of waning demand amidst problems with economic recovery.
• Gasoline inventories also showed an increase last week of more than two million barrels, another indicator of possible demand drops for the fuel.
• A slight drop in distillate inventory, not unexpected as a result of poor winter weather in the northeast US last week.
• Oil bounced back as a result of the increase in the Euro against the US dollar. There’s a lot of faith that the European Union’s confidence in the Greece debt recovery plan.
• Finally to note: We could see another fight between Britain and Argentina in the South Atlantic over exploration and development rights around the Falkland Islands (The Malvinas). The Argentina government is now refusing entry to oil companies that are getting supplies from Argentinian ports, forcing oil companies to add tremendous expense costs to exploring off the coast of the islands. The recent war over the islands in 1982 cost several hundred lives




Local heating oil pricing
Here’s a run-down of local heating oil prices in the immediate St. John’s, Mount Pearl and CBS area:

Company Cents/Litre
Harvey’s Oil............ 75.74
Irving Oil................. 73.74
North Atlantic......... 73.74
Ultramar.................. 73.74
ESSO (Imperial)..... 73.74
Chafe’s Oil................ 73.74
Discount Fuels......... 68.0
A1 Fuels.................... 68.3
Skinner’s Oil............. 69.45

Difference Hi/Lo $78.99 (HST included) based on a 900Lt fill-up.

That’s it for now!

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

The snow in Washington

Consumers can be a little upset this week, not that Barack Obama had anything to do with it though...

This past trading week was a little strange on the oil side, and the weather helped to support numbers just a little, numbers that were supposed to start falling mid-week instead of Friday.

What happened?

Weather was a key factor.

Instead of the Energy Information Administration in the United States releasing its oil report as per the Wednesday schedule, it was released on Friday because of the snowstorms in the Washington area. Those numbers were an important factor in numbers being down now, nonetheless. If Fridays numbers are any indication on where oil prices will be in the coming days, then the direction will be "down". If those numbers had to be released on the regular day, we would have seen a larger impact on prices.

Here's what I have for this regulation period, so far:

• Heating and stove oils down by 41/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel down by 3/10ths, and...
• Gasoline down by 7/10ths.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers along with a look at retail heating oil prices in the immediate St. John's area.

Regards for now!

George

Not much change in prices this week
The real oil news may be later this week

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 9, 2010- There won’t be any big changes to fuel prices this week as oil and commodity prices showed a slight gain, erasing any possibility of a more substantial cut in prices. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Numbers are down slightly
“Numbers are showing drops in all fuels I measure but I only have it in tenths of cents. Heating and stove oils show 29/100ths down, gasoline is 3/10ths down and diesel shows the largest decrease at just a half penny,” Murphy said.

“While crude supplies increased slightly last week that was offset by an increase in investors sinking their money into the US dollar as a hedge against inflation. They pulled their winnings from commodities amidst a drop in demand for oil. The Canadian dollar also lost a penny in value against the US dollar as a result. The real news for consumers may be signaled later today when the US government releases its inventory data. If it also shows an increase, oil will drop along with the price of refined commodities and there are plenty of signs out there that it will.”

Tankers idle
Iran has several tankers loaded and ready to go to world markets, but they have a problem. The tankers have no place to deliver as the markets are now signaling a drop in demand for oil and rather than ship the oil out for a cheaper price, the Iranians are using the tankers for storage in the hope that prices will rebound before the next OPEC meeting.

OPEC meets March 17th in Vienna
The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna next month to discuss production targets. The possibility is there that OPEC will discuss a cut in production if oil prices keep slipping amidst the bad news coming from the world economy. Any drop in the world economy will signal a drop in demand for oil and that brings about the possibility of a production cut to help support prices.

Industry report indicates inventories gain
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is reporting a gain in inventories of most crude oil and refined products this week. The industry organization’s report shows that supplies of crude oil increased by a very substantial 7.2 million barrels and gasoline also increased by 1.6 million.

“Hopefully, the positive news here will mean a drop in the coming weeks for consumers but, the news still has to face some confirmation in a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released tomorrow. If their report shows anything of an increase in supply, then we should look for oil to trade lower again in the next week,” Murphy said.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Not much change this week

As Obama said about "change", I can say the opposite this time around at least!

There's not much this week, at least according to the numbers so far...

Here's what I have with six days out of seven reporting:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 39/100ths.
• Diesel shows a very modest 7/10ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline shows "down" by 3/10ths of a cent.

Some market observations:

• The Canadian dollar lost a little ground against the US Greenback this past week, losing close on 1.5 cents. The US dollar gained a little strength, particularly against the Euro, in spite of the disappointing economic news out of the US.
• A build in crude inventories this week lead to a sell-off as speculators saw this as another sign that all is not rosy in the economy.

That's it for now. I'll have the final numbers tomorrow night, sometime after 11 p.m.

Regards,

George

Small drop in fuel prices expected

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 2, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight drop in fuel prices this week after crude oil prices climbed almost four dollars this past week. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Consumers can expect to see heating and stove oil drop by 94/100ths, just under a penny. Diesel only shows a half cent down, while gasoline shows down by 1.5 cents a litre,” said Murphy.

“I’m keeping a sharp eye on the diesel number this time around to see if the numbers are going to be in line with the new winter diesel mix. Right now, it appears that the new formula for figuring out diesel prices by the PUB has an immediate four cent a litre impact. While the fuel may meet the new specifications as set out by new federal guidelines for "pourability" in colder weather, it may be a case where the kerosene and diesel mix may not give the same performance to diesel users. I’m encouraging everyone in the transportation sector, particularly the tractor trailer industry, to keep track of their consumption of the new fuel mix and inform us of a drop in performance if it does occur.

“Oil prices climbed sharply after a drop in the US dollar spurred investment in commodities. Some positive economic news south of the border also helped motor up oil prices and that, coupled with weak inventory data, colder weather in the US northeast and low refiner capacity the past week were also factors.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers so far

Happy Monday, if there is such a thing.

I guess you all know by now that regulation of prices will take place once a week from this pricing period on.

A couple of things first off...

As you all know, heating oil is subject to changes once a year whenever winter rolls around, when the winter heating blend comes into play for a few months. I also tell everyone that, until the winter blend use cuts off in I think the first week of April, that the heating oil number can just be used as a guide rather than the actual that will occur.

The same now goes for diesel...

Kind of screws things up a little bit and that's probably why I saw my diesel numbers go straight to H..E two sticks. Diesel was projected to decrease by 4.5 and we only saw 3/10ths of a cent down.

That's what prompted me to look at the PUB release in an attempt to track down "why". They have now moved to a winter mix for diesel to meet "pourability" in cold temperatures and to meet sulphur regulations placed by the federal government.

Excuse me if I'm wrong, but didn't we already implement "ULS Diesel"? We've been using it for years already with no complaints before...

For now, just use my quoted diesel number as a "guide" as to the trend in diesel pricing, that is until the winter diesel blend comes off, again, in April I believe.

In the interim, here's what I have so far for prices that will, again, be set on a weekly basis:

• Heating and stove oils show a 1.37 cent a litre drop.
• Diesel shows a drop of close on a penny, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

I'll be back here tomorrow night with the full seven days of data, but it is looking like only slight decreases all round this week.

Regards,

George

Changes to fuel price regulation in effect


Just a quick note...

I'm just off the PUB website at www.pub.nl.ca and I just read their last release from this weeks price change...

If I have it right, the PUB will now be regulating all fuel prices on a weekly basis instead of every two weeks.

That will eliminate the need for the interruption criteria and formula and, according to their release, will keep prices in step with other Atlantic Canadian centers that are also regulated on a weekly basis.

As well, there are new guidelines governing diesel fuels that are also coming into effect. The new pricing includes kerosene into the mix and that's probably why my diesel numbers were way off last week. Instead of just regular diesel, the new diesel numbers include a blend of 75% kerosene and 25% diesel to meet new federal government guidelines on sulphur emissions. From the look of things, my diesel number will be like that of winter heating oils: only to be used as a guideline rather than the actual that will occur for price changes there, that is until I get things figured out.

I'll still be tracking all changes except now it seems I'll be filling your email boxes twice as much...lol

I know...

Just what you needed, right?

What you will see from me is a release based on six out of seven days of data from now on and a follow-up on my blog that will contain all seven days of data as well. Changes will still be on Thursdays with the cut-off of measurement days on Tuesdays previous to the released price changes from the PUB.

In other words, the same thing but four times a month, roughly.

Poor in-box, I know!

That's it for now!

Regards,

George

Numbers are down
Consumers to see pricing relief this week

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, January 26, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some pricing relief this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“We’re all going to see some pricing relief, particularly to heating and stove oils. Numbers there show a 4.06 cent a litre drop in the important winter fuel. Diesel numbers show close on 4.5 cents a litre while gasoline shows a drop of 2.1 cents a litre on the way,” said Murphy.

“In spite of a further drop in refiner capacity this last week, there was a very slight draw in oil inventory and that’s a sign that demand has not picked up over that same timeframe. Gasoline also showed a marked increase in inventories last week, indicating the same thing. Investors then turned to the US dollar to invest in rather than the previous appeal of commodities and the start of the weeks sell-off was on.

“I’m not seeing a larger drop this week simply because the US dollar has gained ground against the Canuck Buck, gaining almost three cents in the past two weeks. Had the Canadian dollar held its ground, we would have been looking at more substantive numbers than what consumers will be seeing this Thursday. If the dollar had to hold, we’d be looking at a drop of an additional two cents on top of these numbers.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

After twelve days of data

It's shaping up to be a good week, that's if you're waiting for a drop in prices.

Here's what I have so far for this week. Two business days to go!

• Heating and stove oils are down by 3.99 cents a litre.
• Diesel is down by 4.4 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline is down by 2.1 cents a litre.

Troubles with the US economy, especially faith in the US banking sector after Obama's comments last week, are part to blame for the slide in oil prices and their related, refined commodities.

A willingness on the part of China to absorb some of the liquidity of lending in the economy there is also putting the pinch on possible growth and expansion of the Chinese economy as well.

I'll keep you all posted but, the word for now is "don't buy unless you really have to" for now.

Regards,

George

Numbers are down, but...

Most numbers are showing in the downwards direction but the problem here now is that they aren't down enough to warrant interruption.

Or, that is, I don't think so...

Here's what I have so far, and then I'll try and explain things.

• Heating and stove oils show "down" by 3.45 cents per litre.
• Diesel is down by 3.44 cents, and...
• Gasoline shows "down" by 1.54 cents.

Here's the hook to all this:

While the heating oil number shows down by 3.45 cents per litre, we have to remember that we're also dealing with jet fuel in the mix. If that number is also down and we were able to account for it, we may very well be in interrupt territory if the jet fuel number slipped down far enough.

Problem is, I have no access to that number.

You may be well advised to hold off on buying any heating oil until after Thursday, just in case it is down further than what I have listed for heating oil itself...

Remember, that I can only use the heating oil as a rough indicator, that is, until the winter heating season ends.

Hope this all helps!

Regards,

George

All the numbers are in
But there's something else I'm watching

As expected, the last day of trading didn't change the outlook on expected price increases by much, although the market news is hopeful that these latest increases may not last long.

Here's the final numbers first off;

• Heating and stove oils are expected to increase by 3.73 cents a litre, down just a little from yesterday's forecast of 3.80 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an increase of 4.3 cents a litre, down 2/10ths from yesterdays numbers, and...
• Gasoline shows up by 4.3 cents a litre. No change there.

Here's what I'm looking at for the next week at least, some of which could prove pivotal in consumer prices for the next price setting.

• According to Bloomberg, an industry report (American Petroleum Institute) is showing a build in crude oil and distillate inventories that has yet to be confirmed by the US Energy Information Administration data, to be published tomorrow, sometime after 4 P.M (Newfoundland and Labrador time). If the data conforms a build in inventory, we may see upwards pricing pressure relief.
• A break in the weather. Already, things are starting to return to normal with the US weather service forecasting warmer weather to move into the US northeast, the largest heating oil user region in the country, if not north America. Warmer weather could result in a drop in heating and stove oil pricing as a result of lower demand, and bring some side relief to diesel pricing as all are part of the distillate group of fuels.
• The China government has cut back on monetary lending and removing close to 44 billion in liquidity from the Chinese economy. This might be a sign that all is not glowing in the Chinese economy, or they just want to slow down growth there.
• Some other sectors are already putting out warnings of a drop in earnings, including Chevron. Again, this might prove to be a sign that any economic recovery words were short-lived. ALCOA also reported disappointing earnings today which may be anther sign of waning demand from the aluminum giant.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that all are going to impact consumer prices and help keep a dollar in our pockets. I hate to see any problems with economic recovery, but the bonus if any is that prices for petroleum products should come down.

That's it for now!

It's going to be an interesting week on the oil front. The recommendation here is to buy for the long term and hold off until the numbers take a beating. In other words, make the next fuel purchase last!

We'll be in touch with any changes.

Regards,

George

Numbers show increases are on the way to consumers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, January 11, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be paying more for petroleum products this coming Thursday when the Public Utilities Board moves to make pricing adjustments. That’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“With thirteen days out of a possible fourteen days of data available, there is enough information there to inform consumers of impending price increases to come this Thursday morning. The numbers are substantial. Consumers should see an added 3.8 cents a litre onto heating and stove oil prices, an added 4.5 cents a litre on diesel numbers and an added 4.3 cents a litre on gasoline,” Murphy said.

“Blame colder weather in the US, a falling US dollar, and the fact that there has been so substantial pick-up in refinery capacity and you have the recipe for increases coming. Refinery capacity has dropped in the previous week to sit just below eighty per cent, a near historic low, in an effort to mitigate building refined product and help support prices. If the Canadian dollar wasn’t strong against the US greenback, we could have been looking at even more substantial numbers. The Canuck Buck has gained close to two cents against its US counterpart.

“While there was some slight building in inventories of gasoline and crude oil last week, I would have to see a prolonged period of increases there to say that we’ve seen the end of any increases. Distillate supplies that include heating, stove oils and diesels saw a drawdown in inventories this past week and the colder weather in the US will also affect distillate supplies again this week as well, dampening any possibility of pricing relief for the time being.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers still up after weekend trading

No relief this week, I'm afraid!

Here's what I have after the weekend sessions and twelve days out of a possible fourteen days for this pricing session. Numbers are still showing increases on the way for Thursday.

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 3.79 cents a litre.
• Diesel now shows an added 4.4 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an increase of 4.3 cents a litre.

The economic news continues to show improvement and the US dollar isn't showing any sustained improvement. That, in itself is telling investors that commodities are worthy of investment rather than any form of currency.

The plus in this round of increases?

The Canadian dollar continues to gain against the US greenback and the result is a less of an impact on any increases we could have been seeing this time around. If this had been two weeks ago, most fuel prices would be showing close on five cents a litre, if not more, for consumers.

I wouldn't call it lucky, but hey. Anything to cut the increases right?

I'll be back again Monday night. Remember that there's only a week left in the voting for the bloggers awards. Get out there and click on BOTW 18!

Regards,

George

Oil's reality bites!

Sorry I couldn't post ahead of the scheduled time for a "possible" price change on Thursday. This computer of mine had a technical issue that could only be fixed Thursday and that wasn't the time to send out another blog posting of any possible changes.

Anyway, there weren't any changes as you all know by now.

That's not to say that there aren't going to be for next week, because all numbers are still ranging upwards to the point that, if the bottom fell out of the barrel now, any increase in fuel prices will be unavoidable!

Here's what I have so far with nine days of data out of a possible fourteen days:

• Heating and stove oils now show an increase of 3.6 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added 4.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline now shows an added 3.8 cents a litre at the pumps this Thursday coming.

Needless to say, the consumer is going to pay for the added revenue to the provincial treasury, both through oil royalties as well as added taxation collected on higher prices!

But, you're going to fill up before Wednesday and help keep that tax money, or at least some of it, in your pockets right?

Before I go, don't forget to vote for your favorite blog at www.nlblogroll.blogspot.com and make it mine! Gas and Oil is listed on the right hand side of the Blogroll page and I'm listed as BOTW 18.

Get on the computer and vote and while you're at it, have a look at the others listed there. They make for some great reading!!

I'll be back with another update By Monday night, I hope.

'Til then!

George

Another day, another number...

Wow!

A lot of email from people asking me what is in the works for this weeks price change, if there is going to be one! After all, this would be an interruption week if prices do change.

Here's what I have so far with the fuels I measure:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 3.37 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an increase of 3.4 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 2.95 cents, not inclusive of taxes.

Here's what I'm looking for.

For the interrupter process to work, we have to have a movement of four cents a litre over (or below) what the last average for the previous price setting. In this case, when numbers were set last week, and we saw a new retail price for the fuels covered, the six days measure so far are still below what is required. The problem here is that we have one more business day to go to allow for the "calling the shot".

The numbers may not be there right now but, after tomorrow's business day, the average for the fuels I measure could very well be in interrupter territory and we could be looking at possible increases to consumers come Thursday morning.

Look for another posting tomorrow night, and remember: when I publish my numbers, I also work on a margin of error of three tenths of a point. If my numbers are greater than 3.7 cents a litre showing, you might want to get your fill just in case.

As well, don't forget to vote for your favorite blog at the Newfoundland and Labrador blogroll!

Regards,

George

Numbers show a hike in prices for Thursday

Here's what I have for Thursday price changes this week:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.66 cents a litre. Remember that the heating oil numbers are thrown off a little because of the use of jet fuel in the winter mix.
  
• Diesel shows a 1.4 cent a litre increase on the way, and...
  
• Gasoline shows an increase of 1.3 cents a litre upwards.

Just a few factors of note these last two weeks:

• A drop in refiner capacity down to 80% from the previous weeks 81%.
  
• A drop in inventories of distillates that includes diesel and all heating fuels. Crude oil and gasolines also showed substantial draws against inventories.
  
• The Canadian dollar has gained almost two cents against the US greenback, partially insulating consumers from a more substantial increase in prices.
  

That's it from me!

Regards and Happy New Year!

George Murphy

Numbers are up a little

Here's what I have, leading into the New Years break in the markets:

There will be some slight increases in prices this coming Thursday and they should be a little stronger than what I have here as my numbers are based on thirteen days of data rather than the fourteen needed.

• Heating and stove oils show a 1.48 cent a litre increase.
• Diesel shows a 1.2 cent a litre increase, and...
• Gasoline shows a 1.2 cent a litre increase.

I'll be posting more here in an official release late tonight or early tomorrow morning, with the final numbers we'll see for the week's price changes.

Regards,

George

No movement in prices

Just in case you may have been wondering, the increases in prices are averaging in the tenths of cents since oil started creeping up again.

That's not enough to warrant any use of the interrupter formula...

I'll be posting here sometime next Tuesday night with numbers for the scheduled price change for Thursday.

Have a good Christmas on that news!

Regards,

George

Call it an early Christmas present
Numbers still down for all fuels

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, December 15, 2009- Consumers will see an early Christmas present this Thursday morning when the PUB moves to adjust prices based on the last two weeks of market activity, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The last day of market trading are in and the predictions will hold true that we will be getting a break on all, if not most, fuels that the Pub regulates,” said Murphy, group researcher for the group.” We’re looking at a significant drop in gasoline prices of close to four cents a litre at the pumps. The heating and stove oil numbers show a drop of 1.2 cents a litre while diesel shows a drop of 1.3 cents a litre is coming.”

“The number for heating and stove oils doesn’t look like a lot but it does signal what I see as happening out there on the markets. Big Oil is dealing with refineries that are starting to come back on-line after fall maintenance and a surplus of inventory as we wade deeper into the winter heating season. If we have plenty of inventory on hand, and there is also refining of the product, it is understandable why any price increases would be a rarity at this time of year when prices would normally be climbing. We’re still not witnessing a pick-up of distillate demand at the same time as hearing about a pick-up in economic recovery. That part of the equation is not registering as a positive thing to commodity investors and I’m seeing a withdrawal in investment in that commodity. Any pick-up in refiner capacity tomorrow may signal further breaks for consumers to come. The least that we have here is the possibility that winter heating and stove oil prices may very well have already peaked for the time being. Of course, anything can happen overnight to change the situation as I see it.”

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2
Numbers still down for Thursday

Here's what the numbers look like after today's trading, one more day to go:

• Heating and stove oils down by 1.1 cents a litre.
• Diesel down by 1.2 cents, and...
• Gasoline shows "down" by 3.7 cents a litre.

I would anticipate not a lot of big changes between now and the end of tomorrow's trading day. Gasoline could be down as much as four cents, if my numbers are right with heating, stove oils and diesel down close on 1.3 cents a litre. either way, look for that Tuesday posting!

Regards,

George

Numbers still show "down" for Thursday coming

Call it an early Christmas present on the way.

Here's what I have with twelve days of data in so far. We still have Monday and Tuesday to contend with so, the numbers may get a little better before then.

• Heating and stove oils show "down" by a penny.
• Diesel shows "down" by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows "down" by 3.5 cents a litre.

I guess Santa doesn't work for Exxon after all!

What is significant about the numbers?

Heating and stove oils are down in a demand season and refiner capacity is still low, recorded at 81.1 per cent, just up a little from last week. The slight increase in refinery capacity just might be a fore bearer of lower prices for heating and stove oils as they pick up production and build inventories, especially so if capacity increases again...

I'll be posting here again on Tuesday night, a little later than usual so drop in on the blog then, or keep an ear to the radio news and such for word on what to expect Thursday coming.

Regards,

George

No changes to prices this week

Numbers are starting a slide in the downwards direction, however, they aren't enough to warrant the use of the interrupter formula this week.

We should be looking at a decline in all prices next week however, even though right now numbers for distillates like heating, stove oils and diesels all show minuscule increases so far. The spot price for those fuels have nosed below the average set from the last price setting just last week.

Here's what I have so far:

• Heating and stove oils show a bare 8/100ths of a cent up.
• Diesel shows 'up' by the same 8/100ths, and...
• Gasoline shows a decline of 1.9 cents per litre.

Again, I'm projecting declines in all prices for next week, unless inventory data out tomorrow shows some pretty heavy stuff ahead of Christmas or there's a dramatic reversal in the US dollar.

I'll be in touch with those changes.

Some observances:

• Predictions by some market companies are calling for inventories to increase even though refinery capacity remains at near historic lows.
• Oil prices are dropping as a result of some gains in the US greenback, making the US dollar more of an investment to be made over commodities.
• Some talks of inflation to come is playing into the markets and that means higher interest rates. If rates go up, consumers will curtail on spending and that will eat into demand.
• The inflation talk brings with it more worries of job losses and related problems with it. That in turn will play into the use of fuels and it's price by industry. More on the effects of inflation on oil prices next time around.

That's it for now!

Then again, that's enough, isn't it?

Regards,

George

Might be worth noting that last paragraph on heating oil pricing, if you are a user...

Not much change in the markets this week
Gasoline up because of low refiner capacity

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, December 01, 2009- Low refiner capacity utilization has resulted in only a slight increase to come for gasoline prices when the Public Utilities Board moves to set prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“It has been rather boring watching the markets this week, especially with no changes in some of the numbers that are readily apparent, with the exception of gasoline numbers,” said Murphy. “Numbers show only slight changes to heating and stove oils with those fuels down by 45/100ths of a cent. Diesel shows a very modest 2/10ths of a cent drop and gasoline shows a 1.1 cent a litre increase coming.”

“Low refiner capacity that sits at an almost historic low of 80 per cent is telling me that refiners are struggling to balance demand with supply. It appears to be a concerted move on the part of Big Oil to keep production down in the hope that demand will pick up, helping to support the price of the refined product. It appears that the move may be working. While demand is just half of a percentage point above last years figures, there was a small build in gasoline inventory last week leaving inventory there above that of last year by almost ten million barrels.”

“The distillate outlook, heating, stove and diesel prices, are showing mostly the same trend. Inventories there were impacted by just five hundred thousand barrels leaving inventories over last year up by 40 million barrels. That could spell better news for distillate fuel users if that trend keeps up. Higher than usual distillate inventories matched with lower demand this last week could carry through until springtime lessening the probability of higher heating oil prices and saving the consumer some grief. I’m hopeful that that trend will continue and help push prices down even more, or at least not increase prices to the extent first brought forward.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher

No changes in the numbers this week

Just to let everyone know that a boring week in the markets still carries the weight of boredom around it!

Not much happening with the numbers. At least we can wait for another week before we see the regular price setting.

So far for this period, all numbers were up slightly but no cause for concern as they don't meet the interrupter criteria.

Regards,

George

Modest drops in pricing on the way

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, November 17, 2009- There will be some retreat in petroleum pricing this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“There’s not a big lot there for the consumer but, at least the numbers are pointing down according to the data I have,” said Murphy. “While oil has been trading in a volatile way the past two weeks, it has always returned to the $80 dollar a barrel mark and that volatility shows itself in bullish spot pricing numbers.”

“Consumers should see stove oils drop by 1.37 cents per litre, diesel to drop by 2.0 cents a litre and gasoline should drop by 2.3 cents, that’s with all fourteen days of data in hand now. Heating oils should drop by close on what I have for stove oils, but with the jet fuel component remaining a missing factor in figuring out its trend, we can only go by the stove oil number to surmise what will happen with pricing there.

“Good economic news is helping to support pricing of oil products this past session. Signs of economic recovery are helping to spur investment in commodities over the US dollar and that helps to support pricing. In spite of this, related commodity pricing of petroleum products fell from last week as a result of builds in crude oil, gasoline and distillate supply.

“That fact, together with a drop in refiner capacity to a near historic low of close on 79 per cent, is still signifying some possible trouble for supported oil prices in the future when more refineries come back on-line after maintenance shutdowns. Look for oil prices to remain close to where they are now for the time being until the economy shows more proof of consumption of available inventory.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Numbers down so far this pricing session

Here's what I have as we drift along this pricing session.

Remember that the winter heating oil blend has changed with the addition of jet fuel as part of the mix. That means that the heating oil number consists of 75 per cent jet fuel and 25 per cent of number two type oil (stove oil) so, when I quote that number, it can only be used as a possible indicator of where heating oil could be going.

The stove oil number remains the same all year round. The quote you'll see from here on until April month still applies.

With twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen days needed in order to predict the final number, it certainly looks like a drop in prices will be forthcoming this coming Thursday morning for all fuels. Here's what I have so far, keeping in mind that the next two business days will determine the final result but, all indications from the markets are that the drops in pricing should be slightly more than what I have here.

• Heating and stove oils are down by 1.48 cents per litre.
• Diesel fuel is down by 2.0 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline shows down by 2.5 cents a litre.

I'll be posting a press release here this coming Tuesday night, close on 11:00 PM Newfoundland time that will have the final predicted drops to come.

Regards,

George

Numbers only down slightly

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, November 3, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will still be dealing with high prices this week when the Public Utilities Board moves to set prices this coming Thursday. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers have shown little change this week, even though they show very modest drops in prices. Crude oil prices still averaged only a buck a gallon down from last weeks price changes. Stove oils show down by a mere 32/100ths of a cent, diesel is down by 7/10ths of a cent while gasoline shows down by 1.5 cents a litre.

“Heating oils will probably be down although I can’t get a fix on the number. This Thursday should be the official start of heating season when the PUB adds jet fuel to the winter heating blend. It’s the jet fuel numbers that we can’t get a fix on from any sources. It’s this time of year when I can only use the stove oil number as a guide, rather than the actual change, that will occur with heating oils.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers confirm interruption to fuel prices is likely

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 27, 2009- After nearly two weeks of rising oil prices, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are set to pay more for fuel products this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to use the interruption formula to re-adjust prices.

“I’ve been tracking elevated spot prices for the last several days, said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “According to the rules of interruption, you need seven days of data where the spot price exceeds that of the previous price setting by at least four cents a litre. The data indicates movement upwards for all fuels I monitor. Here’s what I have:

• Heating and stove oils will increase by 4.41 cents per litre.
• Diesel fuels will increase by close on 5.1 cents per litre, and…
• Gasoline will increase by 7.0 cents per litre.

“It’s disturbing to see an increase in fuel prices now, particularly when the economy is trying so hard to recover from the recent downturn. These increases as of late, take a lot of momentum out of the economy and removes disposable income from the consumer, particularly as we are also getting close to winter and the important Christmas season. All this is coming in on the tail of a fuel surcharge increase from Marine Atlantic and it does nothing but increase the inflation rate to the Newfoundland and Labrador consumer.

Draw-downs in gasoline inventory, a much defined drop in refiner capacity and a pick-up in economic recovery are reasons for the recent hikes in prices.

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

Monday, Monday...

Didn't change much, so it's not so good for me.....

Even though we saw oil slide today because of the OPEC news today, we lost ground against the US dollar and that keeps the numbers up.

OPEC is promising to "pick up production if oil prices get too high". Yes, I found that one hard to believe too...

Here's what I have for this Thursday, with one more business day of data to get before the final numbers:

• Heating and stove oils now show up by 4.37 cents a litre from Sundays'4.48 cents, down a fraction.
• Diesel now shows up by 5.1 cents a litre from 5.3 cents on Sunday, and...
• Gasoline shows up by 6.9 cents a litre!...

I'll be back in here tomorrow night with the final call on what should be happening for Thursday.

Remember to spread the word on this one. This one is SUBSTANTIAL, to say the least!

Regards,

George

Update #1

Interruption to all fuel prices likely

Just a warning here that you're going to get a few notes from me between now and Tuesday night simply because, by the look of things, we're going to see an interruption to fuel prices by this Thursday coming.

I think everyone knows that, in order for fuel price interruption to occur, you have to have seven days where the average price movement is four cents a litre over or under the previous price setting.

First off, numbers from Wednesday of one week to the Tuesday of the following week are used to determine if fuel price interruption is warranted. In this case, I have data that covers from Wednesday the 21st to Sunday, the 25th. The Friday numbers are used for both Saturday and Sunday as there is no market trading on those days. Cut-off on Tuesday, there is a two day time frame for notification purposes and we see price changes on Thursday.

Since the last price setting, I have a recorded movement greater than required for the five days so far. Two more days to figure in here yet, but with oil trading over $80 US a barrel, I don't think there will be a mass sell-off before the Tuesday evening cut-off, which is the seventh day of data needed to come up with the final number.

Here's what I have so far, keeping in mind that I have to get two more days of data.

• Heating and stove oils show an upwards movement of 4.48 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows upwards movement by 5.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows upwards movement of 6.4 cents a litre.

You might want to forward this note to everyone you know. With two more days to go, there could be larger numbers to come.

I'll keep you all up to date on this. Next posting will be Monday evening so, check the blog then for another notice.

Regards,

George

Oil gains Ten bucks in two weeks
Numbers up for all fuels

Media release


Conception Bay South, NL, October 20, 2009- Oil has spiked close to ten dollars a barrel over the past two weeks and consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will have to pay a little more at the pumps as of Thursday morning as a result, that’s from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.

“Oil has increased to a new one year record and, in spite of the rise in the Canadian dollar; there will be increases to all petroleum product prices this week. It could very well just be the start of a round of increases to consumers coming off the latest binge in buying of commodities as economic recovery continues to gain steam,” said Murphy.

“Numbers show that heating and stove oils will increase by 3.25 cents per litre, diesel by 3.8 cents and gasoline will increase by a marginal 1.8 cents a litre. The real story of increases to gasoline may come next week, that’s if market conditions hold up. We may, in fact, see interruption to prices if we don’t see a retreat in oil or if the Canadian dollar stalls in its advance against the US greenback.

“A surprise draw on gasoline inventories, slight inventory building and investment in commodities as a hedge against inflation have all pared into the markets this week past. It also didn’t help to see oil increase with improving economic news, especially with an increase in demand and a drop in refinery capacity. The question is now: How long will the price of oil remain elevated and what the ramifications are of that to the consumer? We’re starting to see an increase to consumers for heating oil products before the onset of winter and that brings some worry to lower income consumers of heating oil products.

-30-
For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

PS: I tried to post all the data I had but that failed miserably. I'm going to have to do a little experimentation with that to see if I can't get that all in so you can all see where i get all my numbers.

No pricing changes this week!

Here's what I have so far for this pricing session.

• Heating and stove oils are up by 1.22 cents a litre.
• Diesel numbers show 1.4 cents up from last weeks price setting, and...
• Gasoline shows DOWN by 7/10ths of a cent.

As you can tell by the numbers, there hasn't been any movement in the numbers even though the US price for oil, and it's related, refined commodities has increased a lot.

The reason?The meteoric rise in the Canadian dollar which is an important factor in gauging prices.

Since the numbers were last set, as of Tuesday last week, I've seen the Canuck Buck gain almost five cents against the US greenback.

So, what does the rise in the dollar have on refined commodities then, you ask?

If I take the last days trading and account for the gained five cents in the banking markets, then we're talking a saving to consumers of a rough 2.5 cents on heating and stove oils, 3.5 cents a litre on diesel and three cents from gasoline.

We dodged any fuel price interruption this week, thanks in part to the dollar's rise the past seven market days!

Prediction for you for next week: while the numbers are steadily increasing for oil and related commodities, the dollar will gain again this week and that will offset any increases coming down the pipeline for consumers. Distillate fuels like heating, stove and diesel will see piece-meal increases while gasoline will show "steady".

Look for the Canuck Buck to show parity with the US greenback by next week, not next January as some market figures are telling you. It's coming sooner rather than later.

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Prices close to a buck a litre short-lived
Gasoline set to rise again

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 6, 2009- Gasoline prices are set to rise again, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Since last week, I’ve been seeing some evidence out there that there is some economic recovery happening and that is bringing with it the promise of a possible rise in interest rates and more investment in commodities like petroleum products. Last weeks inventory data out of the United States also saw a surprise draw on gasoline inventories signifying an increase in demand and all these factors are combining to show us an increase in gasoline prices this week,” said Murphy.

“Gasoline prices are expected to increase by close on 3.1 cents per litre this Thursday while, heating and stove oils are set to drop by 35/100ths of a cent. Diesel prices are also showing a modest drop of close on 6/10ths of a cent per litre. Gasoline prices dropped last week almost 4.8 cents as a result of the use of the interrupter formula.

“I’m not alarmed by this increase as it is coming as a result of a number of other factors. A surprise draw on inventory coupled with a drop in refiner capacity as a result of service shut-downs helped the spike in gasoline pricing this week. Even though price was lower, there still remains a huge inventory build that has to be dented before we see any significant increases to consumer prices on the way. The big unknown here however is: How long will the recovery last and is it artificial? Are we going to see another economic collapse as a result of higher interest rates that could curtail spending?”

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices

Letter to the Prime Minister
re: Marine Atlantic Fuel Surcharges

October 5, 2009
Right Honourable Stephen Harper
Prime Minister
Government of Canada
Office of the Prime Minister
80 Wellington Street
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0A2


Dear Prime Minister;

In June of 2009 I wrote to your office expressing some concerns as regards to the placement of fuel surcharges on the Marine Atlantic ferry route between Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. At the time, fuel surcharges of almost six per cent was placed on the movement of goods and services across the Gulf of St. Lawrence that was meant to recover the added costs of marine based fuels necessary as a result of increasing prices. My concern at the time was that there would be an added inflation rate placed on any goods and services coming into the province, or on exports leaving the province bound for mainland destinations. This issue still has not been addressed.

The concern is still there and it has now resulted in another increase coming to Marine Atlantic ferry users of an additional 7.8 per cent to be placed on ferry usage starting on October 26, 2009. Total surcharges have now escaladed to almost fourteen percentage points on goods and services both coming and leaving Newfoundland and Labrador. As of today’s release from Marine Atlantic, there is still no input by the Federal Government to have Marine Atlantic’s problems with fuel purchase prices being passed to consumers and business here.

While it may be true that energy costs are based on what happens on the open trading markets, I believe that the addition of fuel surcharges can be readily addressed on the part of the federal government by adding additional funds, as needed, to the budget of Marine Atlantic on a quarterly basis to help prevent any added increases in prices to consumers or businesses in Newfoundland and Labrador. While the automotive industry can avail of federal government investiture of funds to help support business in both Ontario and Quebec and consumers see the benefit of that, consumers here, as well as business, are now susceptible to an added and artificial cost to goods and services that help keep our economy sustainable in this tough economic time.

The last thing consumers and business need here is an added cost to goods and services and what amounts to an “export tax” on goods and services to consumers on the mainland. Business here already faces tough choices with the recent economic downturn and now faces extra costs to keep goods, services and jobs going here in the province.

While the federal government has chosen to allow Marine Atlantic to run itself as a separate entity, sometimes this “corporation “ has the responsibility, as does the federal government, in aiding economic stimulus wherever and whenever it can. In this, the federal government has a choice by either leaving us susceptible to extra pricing pressures or it can alleviate and participate in our economic recovery in Newfoundland and Labrador by adding additional funds to the Marine Atlantic budget by covering off the additional costs to Marine Atlantic as a result of added fuel pricing pressures. While the cost of fuel has added pricing pressure amounting to an added 3.8 million dollars for the next quarter, it seems miniscule compared to the massive 10.7 billion to the automotive industries of Ontario and Quebec.

I hope to persuade the government to do the latter and absorb the extra costs, thusly preventing the necessary increase in prices to consumers and business immediately before the important Christmas season. Again, I am asking you to consider this move to show the federal governments participation in the recovery of the Newfoundland and Labrador, and the Canadian economy.


Yours sincerely,


George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Marine Atlantic increases fuel surcharge

They did what was predicted, only they done a heck of a lot more.

My numbers at the start of the month showed a possibility that Marine Atlantic would increase its rates by close on three percentage points. However, today Marine Atlantic announced that it will increase its fuel surcharge from the six per cent rate to a whopping 13.8 per cent, an increase that more than doubles the surcharge on ferry rates.

While the increase may be justified, it's who has to pay for it that doesn't suit well with anyone in Newfoundland and Labrador. An extra hunk of cash from any business in this province in the wake of recession doesn't bode well, especially knowing surcharges will increase as early as October 26th this year.

Again, we're faced with an increase in the artificially placed inflation rate on any goods coming into the province and again, we have to deal with increased costs of exporting from this province, not to mention increases in consumer prices leading up to Christmas.

I'm of the thinking we need a concrete solution to this problem of extra fuel costs to a government run service that was guaranteed with confederation and it's terms of union. Why is it that the federal government is taking a hands off approach to this when they have acted to pour millions into the mainland automotive industry? Why does the government not put extra money into Marine Atlantic just to offset the rising costs of marine diesel fuels?

It would be the Federal Government equivalent of supporting the Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland and Labrador economy by doing so, the same as they've supported the auto industry in Ontario.

I just think it's due time the Prime Minister's office dealt with the matter rather than make it a "self sustaining" marine operation.

Oh well. Time to write the Prime Minister's office again!

Regards,

George

Numbers show interruption to gasoline prices
No other fuels affected

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 29, 2009- The numbers are there for interruption to gasoline prices to occur, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Over the past week, there has been considerable downwards volatility in the markets and gasoline prices are showing a drop coming to consumers. We just don’t know if the Petroleum Pricing Office has those same figures. My numbers show a decrease coming at the pumps of at least 4.9 cents a litre and it could be more than that, if volatility has indeed been a missing factor in the numbers,” Murphy said.

“Heating, stove and diesel prices don’t have the same downwards trend as gasoline, although those numbers are also down slightly. Right now, heating and stove oils show 1.72 cents a litre down with diesel down better than 2.1 cents a litre, not enough on all three counts to warrant interruption to those fuels.

“A drop in demand with the end of the summer driving season coupled with a lack of confidence in any economic recovery resulted in oil prices dropping along with corresponding refined commodities. Inventories are bulging with product and it’s not likely to change in the coming weeks. There’s going to have to be a huge increase in consumer demand along with a drop in refinery capacity in order to impact gasoline inventories right now.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Update #2

Gasoline still showing "Down"

With just one more day to go, gasoline is still showing an interrupt scenario for this coming Thursday morning.

So far, gasoline now shows down by 4.27 cents or almost 4.9 cents a litre including taxes.

Here's hoping oil trades relatively unchanged tomorrow!

Tune in tomorrow night for the final outcome. I'll have a release posted around eleven or so, if interruption is the case.

Regards,

George

Early interruption coming?

First off...

This morning I got the emailer from this site with the predicted drops in pricing to come for Thursday...

Problem is, I never got it until today, a day later than the usual.

I'm guessing that it has to do with the service itself. Fact is, is that I did make that posting on Tuesday night, a full two days ahead of the auto emailer delivery.

I wonder when you'll get this one?

Anyway, just a short note here...

With oil dropping below $67 US a barrel today, I fully expect that when I get home from work later tonight, that I will find that gasoline prices on the New York mercantile exchange will have dropped so much so, that they would have entered into interruption territory. Wednesday's numbers put the average down by 3.2 cents a litre plus taxes but we need a four cent a litre average between Wednesday and Tuesday of next week.

In other words, go light on the gold stuff as we're probably going to see prices below a buck a litre this time next week...IF...the downwards trend in oil continues into Tuesday.

Look for another posting on that topic on Tuesday night if the numbers are there for it!

You might want to pass the word along as well....

Regards,

George

Update #1

It's Saturday morning and I'm fresh in the door.

Just checked the latest numbers and they now show a drop of 4.24 cents a litre, not including taxes for gasoline. That puts it in the range needed for interruption.
It's all now going to come down to the next two business days.
Unbelievable, but Thursday morning may very well find us below a buck a litre again!

I'll keep you all updated!

George

Prices should drop this Thursday

Winter heating forecast!

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 22, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a slight downwards adjustment to prices this coming Thursday. That’s when the Public Utilities Board moves to set prices again.

George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices expects to see numbers for all fuels to drop slightly in the wake of the fluctuation in oil prices and its related commodities over the last two weeks. “I expect heating and stove oils to drop by 97/100ths of a cent, diesel to drop by 1.2 cents a litre and gasoline to drop by two cents per litre. It may not be a lot but it does signify both stagnation in the increase in oil prices and a steadying out in oil’s refined commodities. Having said that, we also haven’t witnessed any appreciable increase in world demand and that has helped keep prices between $68 and $72 a barrel US.

Marine Atlantic to keep fuel surcharge in place?
“There has been no drop in marine type diesel fuels that would show in the consumer favour. I expect that Marine Atlantic will make no moves in reducing their fuel surcharge. As a matter of fact, residual fuel oil prices have increased in price since the last time the company placed fuel surcharges on Marine Atlantic rates so; it wouldn’t surprise me to see them act in placing an increase to rates this week coming when they look at the numbers for the last quarter.

Winter heating forecast is in
“Consumers can expect some consolation that we will not be seeing prices hit $1.20 a litre as we did a short time ago. This winter looks somewhat better than in 2007 as numbers are showing a projected November number of close to 70 cents per litre with stove oils reaching 72 cents. I expect winter heating oil prices to peak at close to 80 cents in February of 2010 before we see a decline with the advent of spring weather breaking in the US northeast. November of 2007 showed heating oils at 82.4 cents while stove oils hit 84 cents. It was early in 2008 that we were witness to the skyrocketing price of heating oil until the price of oil collapsed later in July of that year when oil prices hit $147 US a barrel. January 2008 heating oil prices hit almost $1.05 a litre as a result of demand on jet fuel along with a high jet fuel price.

Reasons for heating oil being a little cheaper this year
“There are several reasons why heating oil will be slightly cheaper this year. Chief among them are factors such as an elevated Canadian dollar that is helping to keep the price down, a drop in demand compared to 2007 and elevated inventories as compared to that year. That same year, we weren’t dealing with a faltering economy as we are now, so prices for any distillate group fuel was increased from 2006 and that showed at the fuel truck level. This year, for example with jet fuel, which is a component of the winter heating blend in the province, with demand down, I’m expecting to see a slight retreat in the heating oil price overall when the PUB sets prices the first week of November when jet fuel enters the mix.

“Crude oil and distillate inventories are higher than normal for this time of the year. Usually, we see some tightness in inventories but distillates, for example, are almost 40 million barrels more than what they were for the same time frame last year. There’s going to have to be some heavy economic activity happen or an increase in demand if Big Oil is hoping on increasing the price of some distillate product.

“Market conditions could change things, but barring any unforeseen circumstances like a drop in the dollar, an increase in oil prices spurred on by an improving economy, the possibility of OPEC cuts or a slack demand for the product because of warmer than usual winter weather, I am expecting not too much fluctuation in price overall. If however, we see an increase in oil prices such as was witnessed later that winter of 2007 then the game is up and you can be assured that consumers will suffer as a result. The price that is projected now is still unaffordable by most people so government will again have to step in and help people out with rebate-type programming.”

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers pointing down but no interruption forecast

Six days out of seven needed and the numbers only show a rough two cents a litre down on most fuels.

Gasoline shows downwards by a rough 2.5 cents but that's still not enough for interruption to occur. Four cents a litre over or less than the previous price setting is needed for that to happen.

Be watching for next weeks update as I'll have some preliminaries on what to expect for the winter heating season to come. from the look of things, it may not be as bas as early last year!

Regards,

George

Consumers to catch a break at the pumps?
Diesel, heating and stove oils will drop

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 08, 2009- Consumers of diesel, heating and stove oils will all be looking at lower prices this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Gasoline numbers
“At this point we have two different numbers for gasoline, one that shows a one tenth of a cent increase on gasoline, and the other showing a 2.8 cent a litre drop coming. This was all necessitated because of the differential we have been seeing between our numbers and those of the PUB. There’s been a large difference as of late that I’m trying to get a handle on, and I may have it. I’m betting on the price dropping this week for gasoline.

“I can’t say if they have changed the way they do things at the P.U.B as of late. All I know is that while my numbers have been dead on for the other fuels I measure, gasoline has been out substantially and it concerned me. I had to go back for a few weeks and work up some other models to try and account for the differences. I think they’ve changed their ways of doing things for that fuel. We’ll find out Thursday morning if I’m back in the saddle again.

Other price changes expected
“Heating and stove oils are expected to take another drop this week of 2.82 cents a litre. Diesel is expected to drop by 3.3 cents a litre following the trend in the last two weeks of crude oil prices. Crude prices over the last two weeks started out at $72 US a barrel, bottomed at $68 US and climbed again today to reach $71 US a barrel. Some of the focus of the markets has come off distillates again as some economic worries are again permeating the markets in the face of dropping jet fuel demand and worries over the H1N1 virus and its economic effects.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers showing down

Numbers are all showing down for diesel, heating and stove oils.

Just not sure on gasoline yet.

It's a case where I have two models I'm working with that either show no change in the numbers so far this month or there is a modest 2.6 cent a litre decrease coming. That's with thirteen days out of fourteen showing their ugly faces.

I'll put in a full posting tomorrow night with all the numbers.

Regards,

George

Will Marine Atlantic add more on fares this week?

"Will" might be exactly what they will do...

Just finished a preliminary look at the numbers for residual fuel oils over the past three months and they're all up, meaning?...

The possibility is here that Marine Atlantic will, once again increase fuel surcharges by another two to three per cent. That's what the numbers are telling me. We have seen increased numbers from June month, almost 38 cents a litre to a point last week that saw the price per litre hit 46 cents per litre.

If an increase is coming, then there should be an announcement imminent.

As to why they wouldn't make an announcement on added fuel surcharges?

The possibility of an election looming as of today's news. Makes one wonder if we aren't being pawed around by the crown corporation in the process. If you don't hear of an increase, or an announcement from the Prime Minister's office on the handling of extra fuel surcharges, then we can assume that there are some shenanigans going on in the light of an election call.

Either way, the people of the province here deserve a straight answer on the going's on in the "Strait".

It's time though, for the office of the Prime Minister to deal with the issue and protect the consumers of Newfoundland and Labrador from the ravages of fuel surcharges passed to us with an addition of funds to help Marine Atlantic absorb the added costs of fuels when necessary.

If then, there is an election around the corner, every person in this province should make this their tantamount election issue...Put a stop to added fuel surcharges on the Marine Atlantic run.

More on this one to come!

Regards,

George

Numbers are up but only slight increases expected

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 25, 2009- Last week’s surprise draw on inventory will translate into some minor increases in fuel prices when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The numbers are not too bad in the wake of market activity over the past two weeks. We witnessed a movement upwards in crude oil prices from $69 US a barrel, reaching a high of almost $74 US and a slight retreat to Tuesday's price of $71.55 US a barrel. Spot prices for most fuels also showed that there was only slight movement upwards in the prices for refined commodities”, said Murphy.

In the numbers
“The numbers show a slight increase to all fuels, some too close to call whether there will be any movement at all in price. Heating and stove oils show an increase of 85/100ths of a cent, gasoline shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre while diesel fuel shows a bare one tenth of a cent increase. With the margin of error of three tenths, diesel fuel may in fact show a slight decrease, if no change at all.

Hurricane Bill brings questions
“It remains to be seen whether Environment Canada will see the data on Hurricane Bill and announce it as landing as a category one hurricane. While I haven’t heard if the North Atlantic refinery faced any difficulties with the hurricane the other day, it begs to question if, in the future more hurricanes will race into the coastline of the province affecting the viability of the placement of refining facilities in Newfoundland and Labrador coastal waters. We know what hurricanes did to Gulf of Mexico refineries in 2005 in the wake of Katrina and Rita. I believe that this is going to be a paramount issue in the further development of onshore processing of crude oils in the future if in fact there is going to be a distinct change in weather patterns that will bring hurricanes closer to Newfoundland and Labrador waters.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Oil on the edge of collapse?

A lot of breaking news stories seem to be following the trend that I detected some time ago that was fully leading to another collapse in oil prices, and, for some at least, it couldn't happen at a better time.

So, what evidence is there that a collapse is possibly in the works?

Let's look back at the last few weeks to set this one up for you and help you draw that mental picture....

Fact #1: While we have been witness to a small spike in prices during this summer that saw gasoline here in Newfoundland and Labrador reach $1.10.4 a litre just the other day here in St. John's, we simply didn't see a large increase in demand based from prices a lot lower than they were the same time last year. Demand for gasoline has remained flat and now we are at the end of the summer driving season and not a hurricane in sight of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fact #2: Just today, US consumer confidence, in a survey done by Reuters and the University of Michigan and reported by Bloomberg, conclude that consumers south of the border continue to be skeptical over any economic recovery. That means that consumers aren't going to be buying and a delay in any recovery of the economy.

Fact #3: The Energy Information Administration reported a good build in crude oil inventory, albeit a small draw on gasoline. The report also concludes that refiner capacity has dropped again to 83.5 per cent from last week's numbers. Refiners are trying to keep ahead of the massive drop in consumer demand and they're also trying to reign back production so they don't overdo it with current supply. The numbers for distillate fuels don't look much better. Demand for both heating oils and jet fuels has crashed again this week ending the summer dream of increased profits for Big Oil.

Fact #4: The price for Brent type crude oil has surpassed West Texas Intermediate, now resting some Three dollars above WTI as of today. Basically, there is too much inventory floating around, not only in onshore storage tanks but also in tankers, simply waiting for the value of WTI to increase and/or be consumed. It's not!

So, what to expect in the coming weeks?

Look for a mass retreat in prices that some are predicting will bring prices back to where they were in April. Cheap to the consumer and murder on the provincial and federal treasury!
At least, from this perspective, here's hoping the news comes to fruition! It's going to be a couple more weeks before we feel it at the pumps but, needless to say I think we've hit the summer peak.

Regards,

George

All numbers up for Thursday
Gasoline, diesel, heating and stove oils to increase

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 11, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see prices for all petroleum products increase this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices.

“Other areas of the country have already been hit with increases in prices. We’re no different here. The numbers are showing an increase of 3.67 cents a litre on heating and stove oils, a 4.4 cent a litre increase to diesel fuels and a four cent a litre increase coming on gasoline pricing,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“An increase in oil prices coupled with a US drop in refinery capacity along with the falling US dollar are to blame this time around, even though there has been no increase in demand. What I do see here is an attempt by the US refining industry to control output with demand factors. Refinery capacity has dropped over the past three weeks from close to 88 per cent to almost 84 per cent of capacity and that means pressure on refined commodities.

“Pare with that the fact that there are some inflation fears in the markets meaning a heavier level of investment in commodities rather than the US dollar. That’s why the Canadian dollar has gained some strength in recent weeks. The basic spot price has been insulated a little as a result and the increase in gasoline prices for example, has been mitigated somewhat. Consumers in the US have seen an increase of almost thirty cents a US gallon while we’ll be looking at a four cent a litre increase at the pumps here, or about 17 cents a US gallon.

“Last week showed its ugly head when the news of the drop in refiner capacity was published. There is a move to control output here in North America, particularly in the US according to the US Energy Information Administration. The drop translated into a drop, albeit slight, in US gasoline inventories. It was a concerted move by the oil industry to support prices in the face of very weak demand in spite of lower prices as compared to last years numbers.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers are up!

All The data isn't in quite yet. There is one more day to go.

However, there is enough data to show for increases coming down the pipes for this Thursday as a result of market activity this past two weeks. While the interrupt scenario thankfully didn't play out, the rise in the cost of oil will play into your pocketbook later this week.

One more day to go, like I say, but here's what I have so far.

• Heating and stove oils are up by 3.51 cents per litre.
• Diesel (9 days of data) shows up by 4.3 with taxes in, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.7 cents a litre.

Just a final note here. The last price change showed i was off somewhat from the actual that occurred here and I have not taken that into account in the final summation of my numbers. The actual increase to gasoline might vary somewhat higher than what I will have here now, let alone that of tomorrow night when i post again with what I have. This one is just to keep you all ahead of the game.

Oh well!

Time to hit the pumps again!

Regards,

George

Just in case, you might want to top off the tank!

My numbers don't show interruption to gasoline pricing is definite, that's first off...

However, the last two trading days have me a little concerned as to how much volatility there was in the markets since the last pricing adjustment last week.

When the last numbers came out, and only showing a 3/10ths of a cent a litre increase, I had it different by a full cent. That's leading me to believe that there was possibly enough market volatility over the past few days to warrant something happening with the numbers that I can't track.

Of particular interest are the last two days on the markets that put gasoline spot prices over 60 cents a litre from my last average of 53.87 cents just a week ago. Yes, a full six cents since the last adjustment.

Faulty data over the weekend is the kicker. I haven't been able to get hold of the prices between Friday and Sunday night that could spell it out in the numbers for sure. In other words, while the last two days are well over those required for interrupt to occur, I can't predict that it will happen on Thursday as a certainty. So far, my base average for the days I do have put it close to interrupt territory.

Another clue that it might?...

The base price of West Texas Intermediate, which I take a measure of, has increased by almost eight bucks a barrel...

Enough said!...

I think I'd be apt to hit the pumps Wednesday night, just in case prices do move Thursday morning. In the event they don't move pricing up this Thursday, you can be darned sure that if the market trend does keep up, we'll be looking at substantial increases next week.

Regards,

George